no, you don't. you know why? because you're smarter than me.

****.

for the record, i already bet the over indians wins. that said, tomorrow i'm gonna make sure i'm right, and drop 30ish units on what my stats say.

my wife doesn't understand why that money shouldn't go towards a cruise next winter. i can't promise her i'm not wrong. ugh

As for the Phillies:

Ryan Howard is supposed to return by May 1. He's having a press conference I think on Tuesday to discuss this.

Contreras is back.

Papelbon > Madson.

They added Chad Qualls.

Worley > Oswalt.

They have Pence for a full season. The Phillies led the National League in runs after he was acquired.

They get Utley at the start of the season. Last spring training he had to sit on a stool to field ground balls.

Polanco's sports hernia is repaired.

Their pinch-hitting has been massively upgraded.

Their middle relievers (Stutes/Bastardo) are young and will probably have an even better year. Maybe Willis will work out.

The Phillies pitching staff last year was first in ERA, first in quality starts and first in WHIP.

Hopefully Manuel will not run his starting rotation into the ground. If he does they'll probably lose again in the playoffs but still win 96 games.

There are far better bets than u95.5.

Sorry to run on. Marlins and Nationals are better. Braves may be better. Maybe not. Mets are worse. Phillies also coasted for the last month of last season. rsigley is the smartest one here but how do you model a General Manager who if his team looks like it's going to win 93 or 94 games in a competitive NL East will go out and spend $10 million to make sure that doesn't happen. Come June, Amaro will start spending money.

true phillies will prolly win 140 games minimum

I give you a compliment and you get sassy. I'm just saying there are better bets than u95.5 for the Phillies. I guess we'll know more by June about the time they play the Twins and the Blue Jays.

i'm agreeing phillies are the best team ever invented

Worley>Oswalt...ummm no?

I meant the Oswalt with back trouble. There's an okay chance the way it now stands (if the Rangers want Gonzalez or no one rather than him) that he still ends up in Philadelphia.

You know he is not good, right? Or at the very least, his return is not worth a whole hell of a lot? (maybe +1 win)

loving the guys loving the cards under. They lost Pujols, but gained Beltran. Go look at both their stats last year. They are adding one of the best pitchers in the game. There bullpen goes from complete **** in the first half to complete mud. They add a shortstop who can field the ball for the entire year. They lose a clubhouse cancer. The Brewers are worse, and their division sucks. Barring major injuries, they won't win 3 less games than last year-the 2012 Cardinals>2011 Cardinals.

i'll take the no on waino being a top pitcher in '12.

define top pitcher

I know both him and Papelbon and other Phillies are overpaid. It's a question of keeping the status quo from last year if you're looking at over 95.5 wins. His WARP last year was 1.6. But Wigginton's was -0.6. His BVORP was 14.3. Wigginton's was 4.5. Is it better if he's batting for the Phillies than any of the replacements. I think so. It appears he's coming back sooner rather than later. I think more information on this will come later today. It's not like I'm saying they're going to win the World Series. Not being flip, would you bet on them going under 95.5?

he'll be outside the top 15 in WAR.

San Francisco over 87.5 with a healthy Buster Posey is a license to print money.

Top 30 (ie would be ace for one team in league) easily. Top 15 by September/October in pitchers you would want on the mound.

he may be top 15 by then, he may not, and I doubt you're qualified in any way to know how a guy will bounce back from TJ surgery once he's logged 150 innings.

meh, he supposedly would have pitched last year out of the bullpen if the season was 2 weeks longer. Doubtful that at this point TJ is going to affect a pitcher in a huge, huge way, let alone one at AW's level.

Was under the impression that off-speed command was the last thing to come back after TJ. Wainwright threw a ton of off-speed pre-TJ. Will be interesting to see if he continues to do so and how that plays out next year.

baseball prospectus got him down to regress by ~23%, not suprised really tj affects even the top level pitchers

Adam Wainwright Born: 8/30/1981 Age: 30 Bats: R Throws: R Height: 6’ 8’’ Weight: 205 Breakout: 8% Improve: 27% Collapse: 17% Attrition: 8% MLB: 98%

I'm sorry, but 60-1 on the Mets (at 5dimes) to win the NL East is just asinine. The Mets have been getting run down, but they are nowhere near in as much despair as some people think. They have several kids primed for a breakout season, including Duda who I have pegged for 25-30 HRs. The major weakness from last year, the bullpen, is 1000% better vs last year with the addition of several vets. Parnell and Meija will excel in lower-pressured roles in the 6th-7th innings. Santana back, if he gives anything at all (sub 4 era), the Mets are no worse than 12-1 to win the East.

What line and what's the max bet on Duda u28 HR?

Lets not forget that fence is gonna make citi field more HR friendly

Twisted Mets logic ITT. I'd like to find a line on them still being solvent by the end of the season.

lol at 12-1.