I didn't see a thread here for Golf so figured I would make one.

I have a question and think I may be missing something...??

Mickelson is +1035 on Pinny to win NTO
Luke Donald is +1464 on Pinny to win NTO

The full tournament matchup right now is Mickelson +108 v. Donald

Am I missing something here why Mickelson isnt a large bet?

My Northern Trust Tournament Matchups:

Pinny:
Mickelson +108 over Donald
Na -103 over Bubba
Bradley +111 over Z Johnson
Els -105 v. Goosen
Haas +106 over Levin
Baddeley +114 over Day


5dimes:
Petterrsson -110 over Molder
Jimmy Walker +105 over Barnes
Villegas -110 over Points
Garrigus -105 over Immelman
Couples -110 over Jacobsen

It's because of variance.

Betting a guy to win a tournament means you need him to get hot, go low, and be able to finish under pressure.

Betting a guy in a matchup means you need them to play steady, make the cut, and hope their opponent doesn't have a huge finish.

anyone know how Phil has done the tournaments following a win? The commentators were saying he plans to commute via jet back and forth from AZ. Seems ripe of for a letdown?

Yea you can never trust Phil...there's something flukish about last weeks win, the stars were alined all too well. He shows up Tiger every time, and Pebble Beach is a great course for lefties with a draw, every hole is perfect for it.

I'm definally liking a few bets in this tourny. I'm probably going with:
Sergio Garcia (Tourn)Jason Day (Tourn) +112
Aaron Baddeley (Tourn)+125 Adam Scott (Tourn)
Bubba Watson (Tourn) Kevin Na (Tourn) +115
Kyle Stanley (Tourn) K.J. Choi (Tourn) +105
Anthony Kim (Tourn) Patrick Cantlay (Tourn) -153

and the battle of the bad putting..
I mean they have everything, yet they don't win as much as they should..they must suck at putting?
Phil Mickelson (Tourn) Dustin Johnson (Tourn) +134

and betting the fav last week at +500 didn't do it for me so let's shoot for the stars
Patrick Cantlay +22500 to win

Also like:
Matt Kuchar (Tourn) Padraig Harrington +170
Matt Kuchar (Tourn) Padraig Harrington +3½ -105
Matt Kuchar (1st Rnd) Padraig Harrington (1st Rnd) +165

Super windy conditions, the Irishman knows a little something about that

Badds has cost me a ***** fortune over the last 8 months, IF only he could be consistent!

Yea I read on golfchannel.com he didn't card over a 69 last year in tournament, that must have been false information.

At least he's tied at 2 over with Adam Scott, but I have a bunch of money riding on that bet

Last week: 12-4 matchup record (1-1 on to wins); +33.95 units
2012 PGA Tour Season: 17-10 matchups; +32.95 units

Honda Classic:
Leishman -104 over Bjorn for 2.0 units (Pinny)
Bae +122 over Levin for 1 unit (Pinny)
Furyk -115 over McDowell for 1 unit (5dimes)
Trahan +105 over Tringale for 1 unit (5 dimes)
Wilson +111 over Howell for 1 unit (Pinny)

To win for 0.5 unit each: (all from 5dimes)
Greg Chalmers to win tournament +21000
Mark Wilson to win tournament +5000
YE Yang to win tournament +4800

Adding 1 more unit to Leishman +131 over Bjorn (Pinny)

Adding:
Robert Karlsson +100 over Ian Poulter in 1st Round for 3 units (5dimes)
Robert Karlsson +109 over Poulter tournament matchup (5dimes) for 2 units

And added 3 more units on Karlsson +100 over Poulter (5dimes) for a total of 6 units on this.

4th Round Honda:

All for 1 unit

Stadler +115 v. Stroud
Rose +120 over Schwartzel
Chalmers +100 over McDowell
Overton -120 over Love III
M. Wilson -120 over Els

How is YTD?

Poulter WD before his tee time on day 1 so that one is no action. The rest of this tournament was pretty much AIDs.

0-7-3; -7.35 on the Honda Classic matchups
0-10-3; -8.85 overall Honda Classic

PGA 2012 Season YTD: 17-20-3; +24.10 units