Some non-NHL stuff to start:

World Juniors start today. Without knowing a heck of a lot about the various teams I'm taking some underdogs with the huge spreads. Here's my awful analysis.

Generally, think there is more public interest on the top prospects on the big favorites that may be driving the lines.


Latvia +5.5, +125 vs. Sweden
Finland +2.5 vs.Canada
Denmark +6.5, +115 vs. USA


Think Latvia is slightly better than past seasons including a more experienced D. 5.5 is a lot. Strong goaltending performance to keep it close and I think they are 50/50 to get that...so taking the 5.5 +125. Sweden could be really good which is obviously where the big line comes from but I think it's a tad inflated. Latvia's last appearance in WJC in 2009 they famously lost to Canada 16-0. But this is not the same team and defensively they should be stronger I believe.

Finland is notoriously stingy. Lost to US in OT last year and lost to Russia in elimination game by just one goal. Their forwards are perhaps better than they've had in a couple years. They're got a kid who is leading their country's top league (not junior league) in scoring as a teenager. Canada goaltending? Not sure what's going on there. This should be a tight game and I think giving 2.5g to Canada is asking a lot against a pretty decent Finland team.

Denmark is likely going to employ a trapping system designed to frustrate and slow the pace. So 6.5 goals feels like a lot to me. But they just lost to Latvia in an exhibition 5-1 so I'm not too thrilled yet with them and am kind of having second thoughts on this one. But when I see 6.5 and I see a team that would be happy'ish just to keep the score respectable I do think that the public might be pushing that line a little bit higher than is warranted.

Game 1 not going so well for me. CAN 5 - FIN 1 (end 2).

Finns letting me down.

MB, I would think you'd have a pretty decent edge on minor league hockey, given that a pretty slim % of people watch as many games as you. Do you think you could win if lines were available?

Holiday, lines are available for the minors. Pretty bad odds on some sites though. pinny has them too and they look like more reasonable odds there although I'm guessing low limits. One site, the bets are good through regulation only which I don't like.

I'm sure I have a better feel for the teams than the market would but its a weird sport sometimes. Plus, I'm not a winning sported bettor so can't really say anything for sure.

To the sport being weird, I know and see my own team's guys personally and know of little injuries that aren't publicized, etc. Lots of times when I'm sure the team is in good shape, they get blown out. Other times I think they're likely to struggle and they win 5-0.

In other exciting news: My Latvia pick barely got there. They lost to Sweden by "only" 5.

Denmark just scored early in the 3rd to pull to within 6 of the U.S. Trailing 9-3 with about 12 really long minutes left.

Update - US just scored to make it 10-3. Crap.

MB,

Step 1: Start a thread posting minor league hockey picks
Step 2: Go on small sample-size heater
Step 3: Go tout
Step 4: Profit

Good idea!

In other news:

Calgary -1.5 +230 I'm liking.

Did well yesterday with 3 out of 4 on my -1.5's all at +210 or +250. Woot Woot!!

Toronto PL +111

Bump to let everyone know where to hit up the hockey discussion and picks.

Mb, standard sb practice for reg time only hockey bets is for them to be graded as a push, in the event of a draw.

KHL
Dynamo Moscow/Amur Khabarovsk
Dynamo Moscow -1 (-103)

Sorry if you don't want foreign hockey picks itt.

so bad - Go for it...but you might not have many others to chat with about it. If I'm wrong on that and there are some who are into the K or euro leagues then that's great. Maybe you'll get it started!

Calgary vs Anaheim - Under 5.5

Since the NHL/NBA thread got locked, I'll move my picks here. I was currently down when the thread got locked, but I've had a good weak since, so I'll just start fresh here. Here's a few things just for reference about me and sports betting.

- 1 unit = $100

- This is nothing more than a hobby. Obviously my goal is to turn a profit, but I'm not going to pretend like I'm a pro bettor by any means.

- I look at numerous stats to pick my games. I draw it all out and try to figure the most +EV lines (as should everybody).

- I will try to post a decent description as to why I'm picking what I do, but I don't always get time to do so.

Tonight...

Edmonton Oilers @ Toronto Maple Leafs

My wager - UNDER 5.5 (-110) 1u

Reimer is coming off b2b shutouts, while Dubnyk for Edmonton stopped 18 of 19 shots in his only career appearance vs Toronto. Edmonton has been lighting the lamp lately though with 12 goals in their last 2 games, but I'm hoping Reimer puts on a stronger performance than Conklin, Crawford and Emery did.

Summary
-----------------

Edm/Tor u5.5 -110 1u

YTD 0-0-0

Sir,
Yeah i was wondering what happened to the thread. I like your under im adding Detriot and Anaheim as well. I probabaly shpuld keep better track of my bets as well. YTD 0-0