I don't see how I can't win under any situation where Florida wins.

I haven't examined it closely, but we all have same final 4.
Making finals is worth 13 points, only prop has Florida as well.
Winning is worth 21 points.

Right now I'm 7 points behind leader.

No one can gain points in South region.
No on can gain points in East region.

Sweet 16

Prop gains 5 if Wisconsin makes elite 8...creates 11 point difference
Tom gains 5 if Tennessee wins...12 point difference

Elite 8

No difference can be made anywhere.


Only other person that has Florida making the finals is prop. But he also has Louisville. So we are tied there. I gain 21 points if Florida wins.

Tom/Zags can't gain on me in final four becasue if Florida wins, that negates the points they'd get for Arizona also winning.

I just don't see a way I'm more than 21 points behind going into the finals...assuming Florida wins.

I can also only win if Florida wins, because I can't gain points on Prop any other way.

I screwed it up, I forgot about the 13 points for Florida being in the final.

UF wins - housenuts gets it
UofL wins - PropPlayer gets it.
UofA wins - Tomcollins gets it

Then it gets interesting, with who can get to the finals, which it goes between PropPlayer and me.

If both MSU and Arizona make the finals, I win.
If only one of them make the finals, I win if
- Florida nor Louisville make the finals
- One of them makes the finals and (Wisconsin loses or Michigan wins)
If none of them make the finals, I win if
- None of Florida or Louisville make the finals and (Wisconsin loses or Michigan wins)

Think this should make it more clear. Damn Yahoo's Scenario Generator.

Wonder what all our pieces are worth right now.

Going by Pinnacle, Florida has the best odds to ship it. +351.

Louisville and Arizona both +450.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/web...sweet_16_log52

Plugging in the numbers with various scenarios:

Tomcollins:
Arizona Win: 18%
MSU beats Louisville, Tennessee wins: 0.7%
MSU beats Louisville, Wisconsin loses, Tennessee loses: 0.3%
Arizona loses in final to non-Florida team: 7.1%
MSU loses in final to non-Louisville team: 2.1%
None of our teams make finals, Tennessee wins: 8.1%
None of our teams make finals, Tennessee loses, Wisconsin loses: 3.4%

Total: 39.7%

PropPlayer:
Louisville win: 16.6%
Louisville loses in final to non MSU/Florida team: 9.4%
Florida non-LV/ARizona team in final: 14.7%
None of our teams make the finals, Tennessee loses, Wisconsin wins: 4.0%

Total: 44.7%

Housenuts:
Florida win: 22.6%

Meaning I double counted 7% somewhere. Ugh. Gotta revisit where the double count is.

Arizona Win
MSU beats Louisville, Tennessee beats Mich
Arizona loses in final to non-Florida team
MSU loses in final to non-Louisville team
None of our teams make finals, Tennessee beats Michigan

PropPlayer:
Louisville win
Louisville loses in final to non MSU/Florida team
Florida loses to non-LV/Arizona team in final
None of our teams make the finals, Tennessee loses to Mich


Housenuts:
Florida win

New scenarios with Louisville's loss:

Tomcollins:
Arizona champs (+380)
MSU in finals
Arizona loses to non-Florida team in finals

PropPlayer:
Arizona and MSU do not make the finals and Florida does not win

Housenuts:
Florida wins (+190)

Simple scenario now:

Tomcollins:
MSU makes finals

Housenuts:
Florida wins

PropPlayer:
MSU does not make final or Florida does not win.

Congrats Prop. Coins sent.

Just bumping this so people can start amassing bitcoins to play in a bigger than 4 person entry march madness pool in 3 months.

I will be in

I am in for a pool this year. Posting to follow updates here, if you can link this years thread when created here, would help a great deal.

I would be in

I will get in this year, posting to subscribe for updates.

Let's get this going again...bitcoin ~$300 USD right now.

We'll do it for .1 btc.
Fibonacci scoring: 2-3-5-8-13-21 like last year.


I ran an NFL survivor pool on here with a multisig wallet. I think that's more hassle than it's worth right now.

PM me for league info and I'll give you a wallet address.

Too busy with work to run this. If someone else wants to take over, I'll join it. Cheers.