BB is a good reg, 27/22, 3bets 8%
ftcb 49%, raise cbet 9%, sample 400 hands
agg 2.3

what's the worst hand u call with?
i feel these spots are super exploitable, but i don't fancy calling single pairs here

hero has 66,50 left


Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($100)
BB ($146)
UTG ($101)
CO ($132)
Hero ($102)

Dealt to Hero [XX]

fold, fold, Hero raises to $3, fold, BB calls $2

FLOP ($6.50) 4 T 5

BB checks, Hero bets $4, BB raises to $11, Hero calls $7

TURN ($28.50) 4 T 5 7

BB bets $22, Hero calls $22

RIVER ($72.50) 4 T 5 7 3

BB bets $110 (AI), Hero ??


thoughts appreciated

44

Top pairs and overpairs definetly fold.
His cbet range is too low, and his riverbetrange is very narrow and has a ton of monstr hands. I don't call here nothing less set

A guy who raises cbets 9% is usually raising sets, big draws, an occasional overpair and sometimes maybe AK

Against that range the flop is a fold with almost anything.

For a spot to be exploitable, your opponent must me capable of actually exploiting you. A 9% raise cbet stat is usually going to be strong hands and strong draws. So the only thing he is exploiting is your ability to call.

If that figure rises to say 20% then yes he is playing back at you more and you need to figure out ranges etc, but 9% is very low. The only possible way that he could be exploiting you is if he never raises sets here and only raises air but common sense probably tells you that thats pretty unlikely.

we have all 6xs up to two gapper? I don't think this question really works here though. On the river I'd be wondering with how thinly he can vbet and how the turn/river cards affect his bluff frequencies. Single pairs are are in fact the bottom of your range, but a lot of regs won't even barrel the turn, so its tough to differentiate between your non nutted hands.

You need to start breaking down his range first, then you can know what you'd like to do with all parts of yours.

Flop: What's he repping, what should we continue with and why?
How wide is he calling pre?
What does he think you're not cbetting here?
How intense/committed does he get?


Turn: This card improves your range more than his, what does that say about his bet given flop assumptions?
What does he perceive your continuing range to be?

villain is defending wide and I think he isn't raising sets on the flop giving the dry texture on the board and hero is probably going to triple barrel this board pretty often depending on runout.

on the flop he's repping mostly air, some gutshots and some hands with decent backdoors and ocassionaly a set or hand like KT AT.

I think he's jamming 2p's on the river, but I feel his range is pretty air heavy. But I still don't like calling 45s f.e. here

Villain 3b/5b TT, so 45s should be a call imo

That dosent make any sense.

If villains range included lots of air, why would you not feel great about calling with 2 pair?

Villian has a 9% raise cbet stat. That means that 91% of the time he dosent raise cbets so im not sure why you jump to the conclusion that his range is mostly air.

I think the river is 50:50 air vs value. At first it looks strong but with such a nasty turn and you just flagging screams weak, with any kind of prf or flop strength you're jamming turn to close down hand, likewise if you paired and had a good draws hand which inc a 6.

I'd call with two pair and AT.

Does his raise cbet % directly correlate with his flop CR %? If so and he is in fact only CR flop cbets in this spot 9% then i would deduce that he rarely has air on this river. The question for me then just becomes 'how thinly does he vbet this river?'. I would be folding all 1p hands and most 2p hands. In fact i think thatsosick nailed it, 44 is likely to be the worst i call with.