readless, only see he is a 3 tabler after he jam river so I assume he is some sort of reg.

it's pretty standard until the river. when he checks we clearly have a vb, might checkback AQ at some %.

His sizing is rather big on early streets. I expect him to bet most of his 2p+ combos on the river, so when he jams, it's pretty weird. I mean. c/r 33/44 here is pretty thin imo. and I don't see him c/r A3/A4s ever. and AQ most likely gonna bet/check call.

so the only value hand I see him doing is AA/AK/JTcc and we block the first two.
on the other hand, I don't really see much of a bluffing range here given its 50z not 500z.

thoughts?

If he wants to shove that hard on a bluff, more power to him. You'll catch him on a different day. This day you must fold and get a good nights sleep to catch him tomorrow.

This in my experience is typically 1st nuts just going "what the hell let's just shove and pray for a call because I don't feel like finding a specific value range and what the hell, maybe it will look bluffy"

Which it kind of worked because here you are posting the hand thinking there might be bluffs in the range.

wp.

Yeah I think you made a good fold here. I doubt he's x/jamming enough as a bluff to make a river call profitable or at the very least break even. As far as what it is that he's jamming for

value...I agree it could be those hands you mentioned as well as KK/QQ. It's a pretty easy value raise for him with AQ+ simply because of you flatting pf in MP your range severely lacks

33/44/TJs and also QQ-AA/AK you might not be just flatting with either. With that being said, I wonder if there could be some bluffing opportunities for us vs the general population when

in his spot in the future. Possibly hands like AJ/AT would be decent candidates to balance out a perceived super strong value x/raising range. Although a MP flatting range vs UTG is still

pretty strong here and you don't really have too many combos of draws that you could be trippeling with, you might be capped out at AQ/KQs for value. If you were bluffing here the only

hands I could think of would be 66-JJ that just really felt like going a bit crazy and trying to push him off slightly better.

Ok I totally misread the action. For some reason I thought that HE had x/c

flop and turn. I guess some of the same concepts could apply though. It

would still be a weird line for him to go for a x/r with a busted draw. I would

think if he wanted to rep AQ+ he would just have bet river with all of those

and put your AQ- in a tough spot.

A bigger river bet makes more sense for the range you are trying to represent I think.

As played good fold

I have to disagree with a bigger bet size being better. If anything we could

have actually gone a little smaller since because of pf our range is so strong

when we get to this river. We are trying to get a crying call from AJ/AT so I

think a half pot bet or smaller works well and if we get x/r like we did we can

just make good decisions from there.

Do kings bet this 3 way otf? I'd probably just call... could also be doing it with AK no clubs or trying to get the lot vs AQ. Although I dont think its being bluffed much I still like calling more than folding. I do hate to fold.

Our hand looks like a weak ace - chop probably, JTcc and AA are probably just as likely as spazz bluff. Someone who opens 33/44 is salivating at barreling 3 on this board, so whatever I call

Assuming he doesn't play QQ-KK like this (unlikely given the flop/turn sizing), he only has 11 combos of hands that beat you, and potentially 4 you chop with, 6 KQ combos he could do this for value, and if he ever turns weak Ax into a bluff thats more combos you beat. I'm under the inclination to believe that he doesn't play AK/AQ like this all the time, but given that you only need like 27% to call, I think its a mandatory call.

yeah seems like a call, I mean he never has AA or KK with that flopsize so he really is repping JTcc imo. and ppl rarely if ever do this with 33/44 (although I don't agree w/you that it's necessarily too thin, why do you think so?).

Fold. What kind of bluff do you expect him to have? He has a lot of value hands (discounted since most will just 3-barrel). A little worse to call since you have Kc.

+1 to bigger river bet. Our river bet range is polarized and we don't want to give him a good price to call with weak holdings when we are bluffing. Also want to get paid more when we are value betting. Also makes more sense with the range you arrive with at the river. Why would you be betting half-pot with JTcc for example when you arrive here...? You don't block his value range and clubs missed.

Would a raise on the turn have been a bad play here? If so why? If not how much would be you go with?

Generally when we are at a huge range disadvantage we dont want to have a raising raise. This is board where our range is pretty weak and so we need to be flatting our strong hands to protect our calling range. He has all sets in his range and AK, while we can only have lower sets/two pairs/occasional AK. Also it's a board he's going to barrel off on, so we just call AK OTT and decide rivers.

Do you play 2NL on Betonline p0ker_n00b?

this is wrong, we want to have a raising range, just a more narrow one

Lol what do you suggest raising flop or turn with then? You didnt even explain why we should have a raising range. Our range for cold calling MP is PP, AJs+. How can you ever have a raising range here other than a set? And if you do raise those instead of putting them in your calling range, how much of your range can withstand 2 and 3 barrels?

And raising turn with AK is terribad and wrong. He has 8 sets in his range plus all the other AK combos. You're just isolating yourself vs the nuts, folding out his weaker equity hands that will barrel or try to bluff catch rivers, and making your flatting range extremely weak.

solver actually offer some pretty interesting points.
and we shouldn't have a raising range on the turn as expected.
on the river. villain should be checking AA always, shove AK around 40% of the time depending on the specific combo. and always shove KK,33,44,JTs and always checking a4/a3s/AQ.

when it's checked to us, we have a pretty aggressive betting strategy. when our cc range is 77+,AJs+/AQ/AK and some % of AA/KK.
solver suggest we shove 99-77 at high freq(60%)if we somehow get to the river with that. TT has a mixed strategy depending on the combos. dont bet AQ at a high % but always shoving AK+(bet 80% pot around 15% of the time with some combos)

If we some how bet a size like we did, we need to call AK always and calling AQ 50/60% ish depending on the combo. so we obv made a bad fold GTO wise.
but exploitatively speaking, I'm still not sure calling only for a chop is good here?

are you guys misplaying ur pre flop cold call range from UTG+1?

misplaying might be too strong of a word but it doesn't seem very well balanced from what I'm reading

also solvers are never folding top of range so of course we would not be bet/folding AK here, it's 100% explo play, I think if you have a cold call range with 4 people behind you should consider having some traps, realistically we should be 3betting more than we flat though

Interesting results for sure. To be pedantic, it doesn't feel right to get to the river with 77-99 if we are then going to turn in into a bluff though.

Its a pretty easy fold imo. Basically ur opponent is trying to exploit the lol50z playerpool here and his play is pretty good imo vs usual fishregs. He realizes that the playerpool is gonna valuebet the same range they are gonna call a bet with. And since this range is mostly 2pairs fishregs are gonna call it off w AQ+ somewhat often. He is just trying to max his ev here vs a random(since u both are unknown to each other) and this is never a bluff.

Yep, he's trying to exploit the 50nlz fishregs that are terrified of being exploited so they end up calling with lol "the top of their range." This line is just never a bluff.