Thought villain's river bet was a bet-fold from overpairs, also 99-JJ are the most common hands that villain's overpairs can get value from and JJ beats them now.

Is it bad that the draw didn't get there?(we shouldn't bluff as much when draws fail?)

I took this line because I take villain's line a lot with overpairs in this spot, usually folding to river shoves.


PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 308.08 BB (VPIP: 21.69, PFR: 17.99, 3Bet Preflop: 8.57, Hands: 195)
SB: 190.8 BB (VPIP: 28.66, PFR: 21.65, 3Bet Preflop: 8.78, Hands: 334)
BB: 322.64 BB (VPIP: 19.28, PFR: 16.06, 3Bet Preflop: 11.26, Hands: 1,018)
UTG: 108.36 BB (VPIP: 22.70, PFR: 20.54, 3Bet Preflop: 12.31, Hands: 188)
MP: 142.96 BB (VPIP: 25.03, PFR: 21.82, 3Bet Preflop: 7.36, Hands: 904)
Hero (CO): 111.2 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has T T

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (7.4 BB, 2 players) 8 4 5
UTG bets 5 BB, Hero calls 5 BB

Turn: (17.4 BB, 2 players) 5
UTG bets 11 BB, Hero calls 11 BB

River: (39.4 BB, 2 players) J
UTG bets 18.84 BB, Hero raises to 92.2 BB and is all-in

I think this is not good for two reasons.
1. His range is uncapped, he can still have all the fh/quads combos and you block none of them
2. If you are bluffing all TT you are way overbluffing. You have ten value shove combos so you can only have around 6 bluff combos. Pick some 8x and Jx would be enough

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Yeah I think it is a little too easy for V to put you on a missed FD. I like the play more on club rivers, especially with your club blocker.

Honestly I'd be really unbalanced here and almost never bluff shoving

It's a pretty ridiculous bluff. If he folds, it means he had a worse hand. Noone is folding a better hand here ever. We have a decision between fold and call, turning TT into a bluff here is very very bad.

Somewhat appalling as bluff. What would be super cool however is if you play all your busted draws this way and villain is forced to start picking you off with A high and pocket 9s etc. Then you can value raise


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Bluffing with that hand should be -EV because of its negative blockers.
Actually if calling is 0ev or less, we have a decision between folding and raising.

Yes, but if calling is 0ev or less I would never chose TT to bluff there.

You could if you're trying to exploit someone.

I like fold river

What are your guys' 3-betting range vs ~15% UTG open?

Fold river

certainly not TT, although I've seen a lot of people 3-betting 88-TT, even pros at NL500z. I don't agree with that.
for me, SCs/suited broadways and premiums are fine, if you're in the BTN you can flat suited broadways, AJs and 3-bet SCs and premiums

haha, nice try

Tf are you talking about

Yeah this is what I was thinking too. Generally polarized BTN vs UTG. Seen some 3-bet 1010 and I dont agree with it either

It feels like you have alot of value to be bluffing here. Does villan fold top top or overs alot in that situation?

Don't like this line at all. Call would be fine.


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Your best hand turned into a bluff and when everything missed is not a good idea.

Hi guys.

Could a raise on this flop be +EV? I don't really know what a bluff and value raising range look likes here. Also getting overs to fold is really good here.

Surely 3b pre?

The way villain played this hand, you're probably gonna see AA-JJ a lot of times here considering his range for UTG-raises might not be too wide.
He probably doesn't have AK much when betting every street, only Ax kinda makes sense, and you beat most of these anyway, so for me turning TT into a bluff doesn't look profitable and as for calling or folding, I lean towards folding.

no

What stack depth are they 3bing 88-TT at?
What sizing are they using?
Is it a fish that had opened?

Could be fine....

100 bbs, vs regs.
Vs fish it's fine, although I prefer flatting 88-TT for the setmine cooler potential, since all other regs are flatting all their PPs with a fish in the pot and sometimes will stackoff with 2-pairs vs them.

so you are bluffing with TT 99 and value raise 55 54s 76s 88 that is over bluffing and if you add missed flush draws and 8x that is waaay over the line.

If V bet river with QQ+, JdJs, JdJc, JsJc, 8h8s, 8h8c, 8s8c, 5d5s, 4d4h, 4d4s, 4h4s, 76s, AdJd, AsJs, AcJc, 5d4d, 5s4s plus 13 combos of bluffs he just needs to call you off with 20 combos so AJ all FH A5s 76s so even if he folds over pairs its not like you are printing

wrote a whole response as if it was BBvsUTG..

Yeah I don't think this is that bad situationally but your blocker qualities suck and 66/77 are clearly better bluffing hands so I would probably talk myself into not doing this, for better or for worse.

as its already been said, id choose something else to bluff, at least not with a club