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Turning the nut blocker into a bluff Turning the nut blocker into a bluff

03-26-2015 , 08:59 AM
Cannot find the hand on my hand, but marked down the action from Pokersnowie, so here it goes.

Party Poker 100 NLHE, 6 handed

Hero is in small blind and has been active, yet not out of line . Villain is an agro fish (34/24/15), yet decent post-flop.

Hero raises to 3$ with A10, villain makes the call in the BB (120$ effective, villain has me covered).

Flop (6$)
23Q

I hesitate in between Xing and betting, but decide with the latter, as I can see villain calling with worse and can continue on any , A, K or J. Hero bets 3$, villain calls.

Turn (12$)
10

I check, villain bets 5.70$, I call.

River (23.40$)
7

I check, villain bets pot. I have roughly 100$ behind. Is this a fold or a jam? Reasons for jamming, well, nut blocker of course, and for folding, I have the impression that villain will not fold 2 pair + here...
03-26-2015 , 09:45 AM
Seems like a pretty easy call to me
03-26-2015 , 11:44 AM
Not sure if I like check jamming. I think villain would feel like u would d/barell your fds, I would assume you are betting all qx on the turn to (this may be wrong) so I don't think c/r the river works enough if villain can hand read, you said he was decent post-so I don't think he folds a pair bvb in that spot.

as played I think its a c/c

what did you make of his pot sized bet on river?
03-26-2015 , 03:22 PM
With villain's pot bet, I don't think you're getting enough fold equity to jam. If I was the villain needing 34% equity vs. your jam, I would call with less than 2-pair such as any Q. You also need the same ~33% probability of having the best hand with a 10-A, so after looking at his river betting stats, I'm leaning towards calling.
03-26-2015 , 08:11 PM
I like it
03-26-2015 , 11:31 PM
To those who vote for call, By calling here, what hands we actually beat?
03-27-2015 , 03:27 AM
would be okay with x jamming against a reg but not too pleased doing it against a fish.

i also prefer to xc this flop against most villains, including this one.
03-27-2015 , 03:55 AM
Thx for the replies guys, it is much appreciated!!!

Quote:
Originally Posted by HailLucifer
Seems like a pretty easy call to me
[QUOTE=spiritrockv2;46474232]Not sure if I like check jamming. I think villain would feel like u would d/barell your fds, I would assume you are betting all qx on the turn to (this may be wrong) so I don't think c/r the river works enough if villain can hand read, you said he was decent post-so I don't think he folds a pair bvb in that spot.

as played I think its a c/c

what did you make of his pot sized bet on river?[/QUOTE]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nash_equilibria
With villain's pot bet, I don't think you're getting enough fold equity to jam. If I was the villain needing 34% equity vs. your jam, I would call with less than 2-pair such as any Q. You also need the same ~33% probability of having the best hand with a 10-A, so after looking at his river betting stats, I'm leaning towards calling.
Seems like the majority of the opinions advocate a call. In hindsight, I do believe his river sizing polarizes his range, thus making it a trivial call. When played though, I thought he was value oriented (thus reducing my options to folding or shoving, imo).

Quote:
Originally Posted by worried
I like it
Pokersnowie indicates that it is a shove 100% of the time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by keybattle
To those who vote for call, By calling here, what hands we actually beat?
In retrospect, I do think he is polarized on the river. Meaning he would of had to float the flop with broadways like KJ, AJ, K9 etc. that become a gutter/OE OTT and missed the river.

Quote:
Originally Posted by woolly
would be okay with x jamming against a reg but not too pleased doing it against a fish.

i also prefer to xc this flop against most villains, including this one.
Yeah, I folded the river but would of shoved vs a reg. I elected to bet flop vs this specific villain, but would of checked vs a reg.
03-27-2015 , 09:20 AM
just woke up lol but i'll give my 2c.

So the open is fine, I would consider opening 2.5x bvb just because he's 34/24, assuming he's an aggro fish, he's calling pretty wide here, and ATo doesn't play well oop.

Flop 2s3cQc
I would opt to just check fold here, especially if you know he may play back high percentage of the time. Also considering you missed the flop and he probably does have a better hand than you at this point, so you are essentially trying to bluff off a better hand, and it's tough to fold out better hand with half pot cbet.

If you choose to cbet, I would cbet 2/3. half pot just looks too weak imo, given your description of his postflop play I think villain floats half pot as wide as with 56 or AJ looking to bluff on later streets. I would cbet bigger to fold out his real trash hands, and if he does call then i would give up.

as played. you hit the Ten on the turn but you are in a ****ty spot now. your hand is just so weak compare to what he could rep, and i think check calling turn/ river is so -EV, unless you specifically have notes that villain just floats/bluff/bluff. but I don't think even aggro fish takes this line too often, when they fire turn and pot river (yes it's polarized) it sucks, but I would give them credit of having it. I think call on turn is okay, but i would fold river. I think it's way more likely he hit his flush and is trying to look like he's bluffing.

I do think check shoving would be a good line on the river but I would never try this against this specific villain at this point until you have further reason to believe he can lay down hands.
03-28-2015 , 11:48 AM
You are going to play the turn differently with all of your strong hands and fd's, so it would be an easy call with a Q. If you think they are bluffing often enough, then call, if not, fold.

      
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