Alright, so I had a pretty loose image and these guys were trying to play back at me.

The villain is 22/18 with a resteal from BB of 9%. 555 hands on him, and his folds to cbet are 30/0/0.

tbh, i don't know what i was trying to do on the river. I guess i saw overcards and i wanted to look as bluffy as i could, trying to represent busted draws, overcards.
He's pretty aggressive (after those 500 hands) with AFq 47/56/39 (f/t/r). Overall c/r of 18% and c/r river 2/3 (but i think it's just the sample size).

Idk what he's representing really. Only 87,97,88,99,44. He calls 13% on the BB vs steal so 97 isn't probably in this range. So it comes down to 87,88,99,44 and probably a lot of busted draws?

Dunno. What you think?

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($161)
BB ($110)
UTG ($118)
UTG+1 ($24)
CO ($204)
Hero ($99.50)

Dealt to Hero Q 7

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $2.50, fold, BB calls $1.50

FLOP ($5.50) 7 4 7

BB checks, Hero bets $4, BB calls $4

TURN ($13.50) 7 4 7 8

BB checks, Hero bets $9, BB calls $9

RIVER ($31.50) 7 4 7 8 9

BB checks, Hero bets $27, BB raises to $95 (AI), Hero folds

BB wins $82.50

well what air does he play like that? I dont think hes value jamming TT here.. so he might have KJss for bluffs.. but even that is pretty unlikely

good fold imo

The problem with the busted draws in his range are that they are usually going to c/r before the or something besides c/c twice. So he's got a lot more made hands than bluffs and he won't always bluff either.

I know you occupy a 7, but this still looks like he's full. He cant expect to get paid anyhow when he makes a flush OTR so I do expect him to check raise flush draws alot. Plus the fact you have a loose image will make him just flat you here when he's got a full house. Would be surprised to see him not put in a raise w/turned straights on turn. good fold

+1 he wont always bluff river either.

Yeah, fold

Boat or TJss, I think. Yeah fold.

tough fold, but w/o history fold for me too,

which one/two cards u think boated him, or maybe he got 56?

So including this hand he's checkraised the river at 3/4 opportunities? Not folding. 55/66 are in his range.

I think it's a fold but i'm feeling a little suspicious about him checkraising the river 3/4. Our line reps a lot of strength so i might give him credit on this board since we only beat busted FDs. Unless he's turning something into a bluff, he has a boat > bluffs.

What about river sizing?

And it's 2/3 including this hand. It's a really small sample size so I wouldn't pay so much attention to that.

you are pretty polarized if you bet 3 streets on this texture.. so I like betting close to pot, as you did

Small sample sizes are significant when they're atypical enough, and river checkraises are rare events. The probability of a normal player running 2/3 river checkraises is maybe half a percent, although this is a spot where he checkraises fairly often as 88/99 are a significant part of his range. Probably folding but if it had been 3/4 then definitely call.