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Tricky Live 1-2 Spot Tricky Live 1-2 Spot

01-15-2017 , 05:03 AM
Hey guys,

Played a hand, around 3am, game is pretty loose. i start the hand with 700 behind. Straddle is on. 3 limpers and i look down at K10 of clubs, i make it 20. 6 callers to the flop. Flop comes Q 10 5 with two clubs. First player to act is a woman reg who is pretty garbage and seems to have been drinking too much. She SNAP shoves for 300 (lol), player next to her calls under for a little over 100. At this point it costs me 300 to win 520. 1. What range is she jamming. 2. Do i call???
01-15-2017 , 11:36 AM
Well seeing as it was mostly limped. I wouldn't really think a woman reg would have QQ. That's pretty much out of the question. There's only one combination for a set of 10s. However a set of 5s could be very likely. Maybe Q10 for two pair. We would really need more information. Have you ever seen her do a massive overbet? Was it with made hand or huge draw.

Knot much much else I could see her maybe doing this with a set, 2 pair and combo draw.

Against a set of 55 ur 32% to win. Not good to call there but at the same time there's only 3 combinations of sets. So I would usually think 2 pair or combo draw. Over call is probably either a pair of queens being dumb or nut flush draw which takes some of your outs.

Against Q10 your 45% to win. I don't see her having any other combination of two pair. And it's not likely she would be doing this with KJ with a backdoor second nut flush draw.

So your likely facing a set of 5s. Q10 for 2 pair which you have good equity. Of J9 of clubs which u have dominated. I probably wouldn't hate a call but my call would depend on the other information you have about her.

Saying she is pretty garbage is not very descriptive. Right or loose, passive or aggressive. And have you ever seen her do this before.

Knowing the usual players at 1/2 I would more than usually say she is probably not doing this with a set. So I would probably lean towards a call.
01-15-2017 , 01:05 PM
It's very close but I think I stick it in here.
01-15-2017 , 03:01 PM
Thanks. For further information, she showed up with QJ... so she is infact just shoving top pair.
01-15-2017 , 05:13 PM
Yeah then that is definitely a leak. Keep that in your mind and get her money in the future.
01-16-2017 , 11:33 PM
Your hand odds don't exceed your pot odds (assuming you have 9 outs to a flush, without the other three K's), so I think the math says don't call. I calculated this by figuring pot odds (having to call 300 to win 520, or about 39% of the pot to win it) and hand odds (9 outs, multipled by 4, for a total of 36%) [If I'm incorrect about these numbers, please someone let me know]. So on that basis alone, I probably don't call. Regardless, the immediate caller behind the lady should have you concerned about other possible flush draws that may have you beat, or are at the very least taking away your outs. That is another reason that weighs against a call. I don't think there are many reads that would convince me to call, even if they were solid, reliable reads.

      
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