Live casino $1/$2 play, no stats.

Villian just sat at the table and this is his first hand so there are no reads either way. In the absence of that I usually go by the casino averages. 10% are calling stations, 15% aggressive players, 50% moderately tight, 25% nits. So 3/4th of the time you are facing tight opponents.


BTN: $200 (100bb)
SB: $150 (75 bb)
Hero (BB): $195 (98 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 910, villian is the BTN
folds all the way, BTN raises to $6, SB calls $6, Hero calls $6

Flop: ($18) 2410 (3 players)
SB bets $15, Hero calls $15, BTN raises to $50, SB folds, Hero calls $50

Turn: ($133) A (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $50, Hero calls $50

River: ($233) 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN is all-in ($92), Hero?

For the record Hero did call, and all the cards were face-up at showdown and I will post the results after a couple of days.

I'm not flatting the donk on the flop. I would raise there for sure.

As played the turn flat probably isn't bad given all the A in villain's range.
Hard for you to show up with a much better hand on the river so folding here feels really exploitable. Not really a good reason to call especially at live SSNL.

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Lol this doesn't seem like a very good generalization to make just make your reads based on play and in the absence of that (such as in this case) use appearance. A description of your villain can be incredibly useful for live poker, e.g. age, dress, how comfortable they seem at the table, who they're talking to etc. to develop a sense of how this person might play their cards.

The hand itself seems pretty wp. I'd probably jam river myself on this card to stop my opponent checking Ax/KK-JJ back as live players don't value bet at all thin on the whole, but they do like to call a lot particularly when they'll be getting a good price and diamonds bricked.

Guessing from the post you ran into a full house though, sorry :P

Villian is white, early 40s, semi bald, business attire (which is not common at the casino), hasn't talked after sitting down - I would have to put him as a tightish player, although there is another reg at the casino with the same profile (except he talks a lot) who is as loose as you get.

We can almost certainly label him as recreational now, very useful thanks. My thoughts behind my original post don't change then, would open jam the river on the T and will not expect to get folds from much of his value range.

+1 to the jam makes a lot of sense.

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Given sizing, I'm pretty concerned. 2 less than 1/2 pot bets, usually are trying to suck you in. I think big draws like KdJd or 6d5d probably jam the turn.

I'd assume he's not shipping worse for value, since live players tend to not v-bet that thin.

From there, just count combos. If he 3 barrels all his other diamond draws and a couple spazz hands, run that against 22, 44, AA, AT, KT, QT, JT and get your EV.

Depending on how wide you have his button open, that should give you your answer. I have about 25 value combos and around a 10 or so bluffs. Since we're looking at calling 92 to win 325, that makes it a call.

In other words, try not to be results oriented. You will call this one and lose a lot, but the few times you win should make it worth while.

Thanks for your analysis and agree with everything you said.

I'm interested to know how villian range alters my decisions. For this particular hand and how it went at what villian ranges is it

a) call-down to the river
b) shove (and which street)
c) fold (and which street)
d) check-raise (and which street)

I have been through similar situations a couple of times and wanted to figure out how to proceed without having to do all the range vs range math at the table.

Results: villian had pocket 4s and won showdown with a full house.

I have analyzed the situation and determined that it is better to check/fold turn here against a tight opponent, while a check/call might be okay against a loose/aggressive opponent.

OOP vs BB I think I stick mye whole in on that flop TBH.