Hey,

So this guys cold call is 8% over 180 hands and very nitty 3b. So combo's wise I think he has AQ, JJ and 22 which we beat. Then maybe the odd suited connector but given his tight range he probably doesnt have too many given the A blocker. However when he raises the riv I find it hard for him to have a set because he probably re-raises that. So this should be a c/f on the river?


BTN: 130 BB (VPIP: 21.14, PFR: 10.29, 3Bet Preflop: 2.94, Hands: 180)


SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A A

Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, BTN calls 2.5 BB, SB calls 2 BB, fold

Flop: (8.5 BB, 3 players) J 2 A
SB checks, Hero bets 5.5 BB, BTN calls 5.5 BB, fold

Turn: (19.5 BB, 2 players) Q
Hero checks, BTN bets 9.7 BB, Hero raises to 31 BB, BTN calls 21.3 BB

River: (81.5 BB, 2 players) 9

I would just bet close to pot ott as i think villian will often xb turn and that would be pretty bad for us.
Ap x/f don't think this villian will turn 2p into a bluff.

It was very risky to play c/r turn. I think you should make second barrel here to protect your hand and to gain more value.

What's your own stacksize OP?

Anyways, I'd generally just bet turn big, but after your c/r I'd still jam river. I don't think he jams all sets 100% OTT so there should be enough to get value from. Another thing is that most of his FD's would probably checkback turn as they SDV with all the broadways on the board. When you check it's pretty hard since I think he can still have some combos of 22/JJ/QQ in his range that he won't always checkback as he expects you to jam better hands than those OTR.