This is on zoom so don't have any reads on villan. Stats are 23/17. I don't think that many regs with these stats would call 9Ts from SB (they'd be more likely fold or 3b but ofc I can't rule it out). I'm behind his value range of 66,88, 9Ts....What do we think about folding? Or call and re-evaluate river (probably folding)?


BTN: $100 (100 bb)
SB: $101.50 (101.5 bb)
BB: $117.92 (117.9 bb)
UTG: $90 (90 bb)
Hero (MP): $124.74 (124.7 bb)
CO: $176.93 (176.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J Q
UTG folds, Hero raises to $2.5, 2 folds, SB calls $2, BB folds

Flop: ($6) J 6 8 (2 players)
SB bets $3.76, Hero calls $3.76

Turn: ($13.52) Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $8, SB raises to $25

Why 2.5x from MP?

Turn is a good perceived 2nd barreling card and therefore a good bluff-raising card for villain. Folding isn't that easy in this spot cause he only repps 66 and 88 but could be turning all kinds of other PPs into bluffs ... you have at least 4 clean outs if behind.

Readless, I'd probably call and reevaluate river (folding most of the time).

2.5x is my standard open when Zooming. I don't see many bluffs that he can have in his range apart from randomly turning say TT into a bluff.

Me neither.

I'm sorry, cause I didn't realize that he was donking the flop when I made my first post ... I thought you were c-betting.

I really don't get what he is doing. Most of the time, when regs do strange things, it's for value. I still think that it is close between calling and folding. He doesn't have to be bluffing that often to make calling > folding imo ... nevertheless I think I'd fold because he was donkbetting on flop.

I also 2.5x in Zoom from UTG/MP and 2x from CO/BTN. I would call turn and fold river to more pressure.

call turn and re-evaluate river seems fine imo

I do agree when regs do something unusual it's usually for value.

I agree it's for value and it's a set you're up against- always is on zoom.

I folded turn

I'd fold too ott

not folding yet

"donk - ch/r" line is incredibly rare so I dont really now what to say. I would see the river at least

yeah I like calling turn and reevaluate river villain line is just too weird

I guess you guys have the mouse wheel scroll bet size by SB, mine is by BB so it's always $3 for me preflop, but if you guys wanna be that precise then that's certainly something to think about.

Him donking that flop and CRing that turn is extremely strong indeed if for true value. That looks nothing but sets or nuts to me also. However, I'd flat that CR on turn because I expect the implied odds of stacking him on J or Q river is close to 100% given the nutted range he represents on turn.

Call $17 to win $101.50 = 16.7% on turn call.

Board: Jh 6c 8d Qh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 09.091% 09.09% 00.00% 40 0.00 { QsJs }
Hand 1: 90.909% 90.91% 00.00% 400 0.00 { 88, 66, T9s }

Wow, that's in a lot worse shape than I imagined. I probably end up calling all the same because I wouldn't know that I'm actually that short on the call.

Yeah, this is actually a fold on turn.

wow. fold 100% of range to this line.

16.7% - 9%(vs 88/66/T9s) = 7.7%

We are short on the call but it could make up for the time that our range reading is a little off, for instance, if he should have some semi bluff range like A6hh, A8hh, 86hh, or KThh.

Board: Jh 6c 8d Qh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 68.182% 68.18% 00.00% 120 0.00 { QsJs }
Hand 1: 31.818% 31.82% 00.00% 56 0.00 { Ah8h, Ah6h, KhTh, 8h6h }

I'm just gonna guesstimate that it's nutted range 85% vs semi bluff 15% and bluff 0% for the sake of the argument.

68% * 0.15 + 9% * 0.85 = 0.10 + 0.076 = 0.1765

16.7% (on the call with implied odds) vs 17.6% but 15% of the time you are not gonna stack him on Q or J river and if a brick hits and he donk/shove or CRAI then we are in trouble once again, and 4.6%(31% * 0.15) of the time he will suck out on you so in that case, he actually has some implied odds against your range + FE on turn and you would have played the hand incorrectly on the turn.

So, it's closer when you look at the range more realistically but it's still a fold > call > 3bet but I think most avg players will call or 3bet nevertheless because Top Two is over valued in today's game in general.

Nice discernment and nice fold.

to OP - How long did it take for you to figure it out? Just curious.