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Theoretical HU big draw situation Theoretical HU big draw situation

04-19-2017 , 01:56 PM
So didn't actually play this hand so I can't give you a transcription. But I feel like I'm in this situation often and perhaps you can relate and provide insight. The question is: how much should I bet on the turn to set up a river bluff?

Let's say I'm playing 1-2 at my local casino

Hero: AcKc in cutoff (150bb)
Villain: Js9s in HJ (150bb)

V limps. Folds to me. Raise to 16. Bb calls and V calls.

Pot is $48

Flop: Jc, 2c, 3s

Check, check, I semi bluff my big draw and raise $26. Bb folds (maybe just set mining)
And villain calls.

Pot is $100
Turn: 5h

He checks. How much should I bet here? Even though I picked up a gut shot, my equity is a lot less than it was on the flop. If he calls my turn bet I'd better be ready to fire on the river. Villain isn't a calling station or a LAG so I can pretty safely say he's holding J8 or better. So if a non club 8,9,T,J,Q comes and he bets I'm out. So that's 14 cards I can't bluff him. Versus the 18 that make my hand and the rest I can effectively portray an overpair and get him to fold enough of the time to be profitable.

So should I go for gold equity on the turn and bet biggish like $80, or bet ~$55 and set myself up for either a big (pot size) river bet if a brick comes (7d let's say) and give up / save money if one of his ideal cards comes?

Thanks for reading all of this.

      
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