I was playing 34/29/af5.1/3bet9.3 Squeeze 18.1 698 hands

The villain is 25/21/af3.1/3bet6.7 F3 78 PFR HJ 19 452 hands

CO is unknown

It seemed like a good spot to squeeze.

I think it's close between folding and jamming on flop.

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

BTN: $100 (100 bb)
Hero (SB): $303.01 (303 bb)
BB: $100 (100 bb)
UTG: $278.28 (278.3 bb)
MP: $94.50 (94.5 bb)
CO: $206.90 (206.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A 7
UTG folds, MP raises to $3, CO calls $3, BTN folds, Hero raises to $13, BB folds, MP calls $10, CO folds

Flop: ($30) 2 T Q (2 players)
Hero bets $14.32, MP raises to $35, Hero ???

you must've posted the wrong hand. it can't be close between folding and jamming when you get almost direct odds to draw vs top set

arrr innn

Board: Qd Td 2s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 68.458% 68.46% 00.00% 10166 0.00 { QQ, TT, QTs, QTo }
Hand 1: 31.542% 31.54% 00.00% 4684 0.00 { Ad7d }

$67.18/$189 = 35% vs 31% So I'm short 4%

So it's actually fold > jam > call

Did I do this right?

no implied odds?

and he can also have worse draws sometimes and KK+

You did your calcs right. It is a call vs that range. However we have to perceive his range as wider than that, and this hand will play most +EV vs a more realistic range as a jam.

No I think your first assessment is correct. We have the right odds to call and we may pick up enough equity to call his shove on turn.

Let's say I called his raise on flop and turn is A of club(which it is).

Board: Qd Td 2s Ac
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.909% 70.91% 00.00% 468 0.00 { QQ, TT, QTs, QTo }
Hand 1: 29.091% 29.09% 00.00% 192 0.00 { Ad7d }

$46.50/$189 = 24% vs 29% so now I can profitably call his shove on turn but if we didn't hit A or I'm guessing 7, we can still profitably fold.

And obviously if club hits the turn we move ahead of his range so it's a easy call on his shove or we can donk/shove ourselves.

I actually think this is great stuff because we are keeping the option to save money on turn in case if we wanted to fold. Isn't this GTO?

It might be so vs that exact range, but he can have semibluffs aswell and that would make folding turn unimproved terrible if he shoves.

getting it in on the flop should be your default imo

you haven't included hands like JKdd/AQ so that probably gives you your extra 4% to shove

its unlikely they are bluffing zero % of the time so you may as well chuck in a couple more % for those odd occasions were someone is tilted, problem with zoom is there is very little game flow reads so you have to just guess at parts of their range.

for me its easy shove

I think it's probably true that the actual range might be a little wider but not by much. I'd take bluff out completely. His min raise on flop in 3bet pot is super strong and I pretty much knew that the worst hand possible is AQ but more likely QQ,TT, or QT. QTo also is definitely in there if he is paying any attention to how wide I was 3betting and squeezing. I also discounted FD to a certain extent because my hand blocks some of those draws. I seriously doubt that he would min raise KJo because he has position. I know I wouldn't. KJdd is possible and may raise flop but I doubt he has it. I wonder if someone can calculate the chance of him having KJdd while I'm holding A7dd with two diamonds on flop. Can Flopzilla do it? Anyone have that?

I think shoving against that range is so close, something like +1 or -1% that EV is neutral.

If you could narrow it down to 6 combos of QQ and TT, we only have 25% equity on flop. Now that would actually be a fold vs his raise on flop.

This is definitely not fist pumping shove situation imo. It took me 30 seconds to shove my hand but I did it because I felt like I didn't have any other choice other than folding but I hate folding so. I was not happy to get it in and I was less happy when he snapped.

lol...

A) QTo is doubtfully in his range, if he raises it pre(which he might not) and calls a 3bet with it, hes calling close to 100% of his range from the MP so squeeze is horrid.
B) His fold to 3bet is 78% so its even doubtful if he has QTs in this spot
C) He can have a ton of draws or random bluffs or even AQ,KK,AA here some people even KQo. He's also got random air a non zero % of the time.. like 89s not diamonds or something like that. Do you not think he would raise KJd on this flop? 89d? The range you gave him is ridiculous.
D) your playing 35/25 with a near 20% squeeze you flop NFD on a flop and want to fold? cmon son, even folding this when u played 14/9 would be bad.

easiest jam ever, im sad I clicked a combatcarl thread without realizing it, must be tired.

If you're certain that your opponent only raises with QQ,TT,QT (QT?) and absolutely no bluff raises+weaker value/draws in a SQUEEZED POT then your direct odds are actually ~20:80 and you easily have odd+implied to call try to spike a diamond on the turn.

shove>call>fold for reasons already mentioned.

dont u feel better about yourself now that you talked down to someone on an internet forum?

LOL

Yeah your range reading is right on son.

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

BTN: $100 (100 bb)
Hero (SB): $303.01 (303 bb)
BB: $100 (100 bb)
UTG: $278.28 (278.3 bb)
MP: $94.50 (94.5 bb)
CO: $206.90 (206.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A 7
UTG folds, MP raises to $3, CO calls $3, BTN folds, Hero raises to $13, BB folds, MP calls $10, CO folds

Flop: ($30) 2 T Q (2 players)
Hero bets $14.32, MP raises to $35, Hero raises to $290.01 and is all-in, MP calls $46.50 and is all-in

Turn: ($193) A (2 players, 2 are all-in)
River: ($193) 2 (2 players, 2 are all-in)

Results: $193 pot ($2.80 rake)
Final Board: 2 T Q A 2
Hero showed A 7 and won $190.20 ($95.70 net)
MP showed Q T and lost (-$94.50 net)

That's 36% on flop. My range reading was way more accurate than yours.

You are way too optimistic imo. Know your limit when you bluff/squeeze.

What exactly does this mean?