Playing Zoom. UTG's stats are 23/21 over pretty small sample - no history / big pots played together.

On river if I value bet do I get called by worse > 50% of the time? I feel like I should be betting here as I'll have KhQh etc in my range that should want to bluff some % of the time. Do people ever check AK here - and if so I'm value cutting myself.

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $100 (100 bb)
SB: $108.01 (108 bb)
BB: $50 (50 bb)
UTG: $121.61 (121.6 bb)
MP: $87.90 (87.9 bb)
Hero (CO): $111.42 (111.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q A
UTG raises to $3, MP folds, Hero calls $3, 3 folds

Flop: ($7.50) A 6 J (2 players)
UTG bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50

Turn: ($16.50) 3 (2 players)
UTG bets $11.50, Hero calls $11.50

River: ($39.50) 4 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $19

I wouldn't check river with AK all that often but it's possible I guess vs certain opponents. On this board texture, yeah it's a possibility because FD missed so may be I'll go for check/call to see if someone wanna stab at it.

But I mostly just go bet/bet/bet with AK. Would I bet my AQ vs missed cbet on river in position? Yes, I'd bet 1/2-3/4 depending on what I think he might call. Sometimes, he will show up with better but VBing in these spots close to 100% of the time will probably show decent profit in long run.

I valuebet for sure, time to find out if Axs/ATo is in hs UTG opening range and he plays it this way. Especially with the FD he'll possibly bluffcatch river wider imo

I'd expect him to tripple pretty much all hands that beat us. If he ch/calls AK that's a good note to have imo (mostly for bluffcatching tripples especially if we later get trippled on say the same board and have a strong indication he may not open Axs or even AJ turns out to be generally aggro post etc. pp)

If he checkfolds river that's also very good info to have, essentially his mindset is probably going to be along the lines of "rivercard didn't change anything..gonna give up" which we can use to double float etc. in the future

I like your thinking process

Yeah he c/c'd w AK which surprised me. If he has that in his river checking-range and does not call river with AXs then river decision is close...

i like your bet here against basically anyone.

his bluffcatch river line is prob not good v many ppl. i'd be less inclined to bet here in the future, given checking AK here suggests he is checking anything, including sets. ppl don't always recognize the logical disconnect between betting AJ and checking AK here, but i'd be comfortable saying he is way, way more likely to c/c (or maybe c/s) those hands.

AK+ should be AK/AJ/AA/JJ/33/66/A6s so 8+6+1+3+3+3+1=25 combos. looks like a check.....

If like most people you're folding AT to the third barrel and betting AQ when checked to, he should never bet a made hand on the river. In theory if you're betting AQ on the river you should randomly check some of the time to counter this.

Or I guess it also works to bet small with your range, which makes sense given how few bluffs you have.

Would be pretty useful to know how wide he is opening from UTG.

Definitely betting and your sizing is good, may make it a couple $ more, take a note and move on.

Personally I dont think this is a good board to bet the river on.

He either has a missed FD, which he folds or AK/AT

AQ chops
AJ is 2 pair (and unlikely that he checks)

Betting AQ here against an UTG range is breakeven, you win when he has AT and loose when he has AK.

Given the board texture he is likely checking here to give you an opportunity to bluff with missed draws or to bet any ace.

The only hand that he calls with that you beat here is AT.

If there were no FD then yes bet, but I really think people try and turn AK into a bluff catcher figuring that AQ and AT always bet when checked to and missed FDs can try and stab.

ID be looking for a slightly higher VPIP before thinking he has Axs in his UTG range (something like 26%+) and of course if he has Axs in his UTG opening range then I like betting here.

This is a pretty common spot where ranges are totally out of whack from my experience. People will c/c AK here as UTG but never c/c two pair+ even if that makes very little sense.

Oh I agree, I'm just geeking over the theoretical aspects of the hand.

Thats right, a lot of people do that.