Me ($350)
Villian ($150)

I get dealt Ah Qh on button

Several limpers including villian to me when I raise to $12, BB and villian in MP call raise. (38)

Flop Jh 10s 8h

Checks to me I cbet to $15 big blind folds villian calls. (68)

Turn 7c villian checks to me, he's bluffed before so I bet 20, he comes over the top all in. (~201)

What I see is he might have stuck around with a 9, but with 200 in the pot and me having what I see as 17 outs (hearts, 9s, Kings) may have been worth a call.

Was it the right choice to fold? Villian was an average player who keeps low level suited connectors but reserves anything beta over 10 for higher connectors.

Thanks guys.

This is a live game I assume? Blinds? Any reads on villain?

Bet way bigger otf. something like 34.

Turn smashes Villains range pretty hard. The merit in betting would be to get him off a J and Q10 + getting value from KQ and 65hh.

If you bet obv. bet call a little over half pot (if you would have bet bigger otf). Check behind as played.

You may be over counting by 1 or 2 outs. 4 kings, 3 9s if he has one, 9 hearts. So if you have 16 outs you have about 32% chance. You have to call about 90(depending on how precise your guess at his stack was). So you're getting about 2.2 to 1 ish, implying you need about a 30% chance to win.

So it may be a "good" call but risking 90 for a 2% edge may not be something you are looking to do. If he does have a straight and you play this hand out 1000 times the exact same way with random river cards you will come out on top by just a little but in the short run you can miss it 10 times in a row.

Kind of depends on if you think the edge is worth it. Obviously you won't get the exact same situation 1000 times any time in the near future, especially live. I'm rambling a little bit....


The other thing that is important is your ability to do that math on the fly. I did the math now in my head quickly to simulate me doing it at the table. I could easy be off by +-2%. Generally if my on the fly math is +2% EV I'm folding...unless I believe there is a large (>25%) chance he is completely bluffing.

I agree the flop bet should be bigger but I don't know if needs to be pot sized, maybe 2/3 accomplishes the same thing.

Haha so I put it on Pokerstove and you have 31.8% equity if he has 89 and you get 30.9% pot odds. Counting the rake, slightly bad call....

Why are you getting the turn?

As played, I call the all in. Too much equity and he could have much less than the straight.

Check turn is better I agree but straight or not he always have better than one pair so our outs won't change.

bigger pre, bigger flop, depending on stack sizes on turn, over shove, overbet (call) or bet/call. you should NEVER get into a spot were you are never realizing all of your equity here

This, this, this, this, and this.

Also, why are you betting so small on the turn to ostensibly induce a bluff and then folding?