Important stats villian 560 hands:
20/14
Cold call SB: 4%
3bet SB: 0/65
CB: 40

IMO pretty obv AK. Should I try to get him off this hand or not? And how much should I raise.

think its suicidal to bluff here when you don't rep anything (or reaaaally thin). The only FD you might checkback sometimes is the NFD, which obv isnt possible anymore on this river.

I'd bet turn though.

yeah I should have bet the turn. I am aware of not repping much, but its more about exploiting a weak opponent who obv doesn't know much about balancing his range

Agree w neok as played rvr raise would look FOS. Turn bet i think is ok but mostly its protection but ye also protection from getting bluffed on some rvrs so i think between 1/3-1/2 pot turn bet is fine.

I think i'd bet flop.

+1

Looks like +KQ/+AJ giving up to me.....

+1,

prob bet flop but definitely bet turn now.

AP fold riv, his range is pretty transparent and you don't rep anything at all.

Most of the time I am going to fold preflop since the stacks aren't that deep.

Bet 1/2 pot on the flop. Bet 1/3 pot on the turn. Check the river. If villain raises or bets

the river out of turn when the ace falls then I would fold.

I am thinking that I want to get to showdown as cheaply as possible, so firing two small barrels should get you there. Also, villain is tight, so he is likely calling with something decent, but he isn't tight enough to fold an ace on the river to a raise. I am also thinking that this plan would be difficult to execute in a 3bet pot, but its important to remember that there is fold equity on the turn.

Fold pre

Betting the flop or turn just folds out everything we are beating.

As played fold river

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sure he does he reps a poorly played 66.....

If bluffing with the best hand is still the most +EV line do we really care?

we should have pretty decent implied odds given villains 3bet stat from the SB.

That is hardly a terrible result... He rarely has us beat but everything in his range has significant equity vs us.

If we are checking back all our Ax hands then checking back 66 seems fine.

I am thinking that checking is passive. If I bet the flop or turn, it makes my opponent likely to call with his big ace hands or maybe most of his range because I could just be attempting to steal the pot and his commitment level to his investment is higher than usual, but since I might have something, he would only raise if he held a big pair. I also want to charge him to draw to his overcards.

Also on the turn, I pick up a draw, so a small bet will discourage villain to bet on the river, which will get me to showdown and if I get there on the river and make a straight or set, then I could bet big and get paid off by villain's big pairs. If villain folds anywhere in the hand, it just means that he doesn't have anything, but if I check through this hand, then his hand could become something.

passive play > fundamentally incorrect play

Is a turn bet for value or as a bluff? If Ax is calling, we might as well bet the floor. Regarding the river, just call with the minimum number of combos and you will remove the guess work.

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Turn bet is for value and as a bluff. He could have picked up a flush draw or not be convinced that he is beat for some reason. Villain won't always be rational. When the ace falls on the river, I will always wish I had bet the turn and kept pressure on my opponent.

If I have to choose between checking and betting, most of the time I am going to bet just because I like to apply pressure and keep my opponent guessing. Also I can set up situations where I can use my aggression to bluff later in the hand.

turn is pretty easy vbet, right?

Most of the time, the river will be a blank. Also, a rational villain is one of our assumptions in the absence of solid reads. As for bluffing on future streets, I am analyzing this decision point only and also not a huge fan of turning made hands into bluffs.

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Turn bet is pure value, not really a bluff at all. Strong aces will peel a decent percentage of the time putting us on a draw or complete air.

Of course we're rarely ever beat when he checks twice, so allowing him to realize his equity is a mistake on it's own. We'll also get bluffed out on rivers that he misses, like when the river is a K and he bets AQ. There is no rational reason to ever check this turn unless you like giving your opponents money.