Villain is 21/17, cbets 70 and fold about 50% to a raise. WTSD 30, W$SD 51

So I can definitely represent a strong hand and get him to fold hands as strong as KQ and AK I think (or hope).

His range for calling the flop is probably AK, KQ, AA and I hope it folds on the turn or river. Then, he called the turn again leaving himself 80$ on the river!

This hand is pretty weird, I think mostly b/c of betsized, but what else could I have done? Overbet turn and increase our fold equity? Turn is a great card for us. Then on the river, even though the flush draw hit, I think i have very littttle fold equity or even 0 fold equity. He'd have to call 80 and the pot would be 330$.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
OnGame
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($200) 100bb
CO ($251.05) 126bb
Hero (BTN) ($417.30) 209bb
SB ($129.40) 65bb
BB ($263.60) 132bb

Pre-Flop: ($3, 5 players) Hero is BTN 9 J
UTG raises to $7 ($193.00), CO calls $7 ($244.05), Hero calls $7 ($410.30), 2 folds

Flop: K 7 8 ($24, 3 players)
UTG bets $14 ($179.00), CO folds ($244.05), Hero raises to $44 ($366.30), UTG calls $30 ($149.00)

Turn: 5 ($112, 2 players)
UTG checks ($149.00), Hero bets $69 ($297.30), UTG calls $69 ($80.00)

River: 4 ($250, 2 players)
UTG checks ($80.00), Hero checks ($297.30)

hes gettin very good value to call a river shove. Would of been better if your flop raise was smaller, leading to a smaller turn bet. giving him worse odds to call river if you jammed.

if you have given them that range, i dont think there often going to fold the turn to that size and card. I might of have just taken free card.

I'd probably be looking to either bet a little smaller on the turn or bigger/shove.

As played, probably shove river. He should probably talk himself out of it often enough.

Maybe he would fold that Kx, but I doubt it. I had a note on him tho, that he folded a good hand (probably TPGK - only an assumption since i didn't see his cards) to a 3barrel in a 3bet pot on a dry Kxx, but he was out of position.

Super difficult to get a river fold from anything getting that price. The problem with this hand is sizing. Stacks simply just arn't good enough to go for 3 sts here trying to fold out a range where his worse hand is KQ.

call the flop, you have position and he just bet K78hh into two people

so he definitely will continue on the turn and my hand isnt strong enough to call again or to raise on the turn (unless i spike a ten)

the fact that he just bet into 3 people on that board, makes my hand look even stronger

after I posted I was thinking that him betting this flop might actually make calling bad for the reasons you gave, but I still think calling is better. Because his range for betting such a wet board 3way is pretty strong and includes a lot of strong draws I think you'll get 3bet a fair bit, any NFD, sets, T9hh, JThh, 87, AA, sometimes AK, are probably 3betting so you're just throwing money into the pot and having to fold without even getting a chance to realize your equity.

I don't think he'll necessarily fire every turn. Kx, heart turns, A turns, etc. could all slow him down and possibly let you profitably bet turn and river.

With a gutter and BDFD even if he does bet the turn a lot you can continue on quite a few cards. Any diamond, maybe J/9, obviously any ten.

Your hand might look strong here but that doesn't mean he's going to fold a draw or AK+, and he might not fold any Kx. If you're trying to get him to fold stuff like 99-QQ, KT, etc., you can probably do that later by calling.

With position I just rarely see a reason to semibluff a weak draw and I don't really think this spot is an exception although I do admit it's a little closer here than normal.

Well, I didn't have any history with this guy and I'm definitely not a supper-aggro player. (My cbet raise might be around 12%).

I do expect him to fold Kx by the turn. Maybe I'm too naive but vs. an unknown I wouldn't wanna stack off with AK on this flop facing a raise.

I don't know, but I don't like floating this flop. I feel like we have to give up on a lot of turn cards and even the opponent checks the river, we betting represent a lot of draws (which includes our hand) since we'd raise all the good hands earlier on.

keyser as far as the avg player has improved, it's my experience that they still suck at auto cbetting certain spots. Kxx and Axx boards are the best examples. it's as if they don't even see the other two cards...

anyway, i'd prob jam as played. it barely needs to work and whatever. i'd be more concerned about a flush than getting hero'd by Kx. flop and turn sizing are poor, though, since you are left with this pot and this stack size

jaming $80 > $240 = you're never bluffing, so bluff

I'd squeeze pre

is it bad to fold flop here?
do you prefer folding without the bdfd?

I wouldn't be that thrilled about stacking off with AK but if I did continue with the hand I would just get it in on the flop. I don't think calling a big raise like this OOP with a low SPR really accomplishes much. Generally people aren't bluffing the turn too often after villain calls a big flop raise so with AK you kinda just get the money in bad on the turn or you let villain take the free card.

I also agree that you should bluff this river even though you don't have much money left. It's just one of the best bluff rivers against his range and he only has to fold about 24%.

@Keyser.
I'd rather fold flop than call.

As played, ch T and shove d, h and 10 rivers

i'm in the float flop camp, i don't think it's that close either in position w/ a hand as strong as this one. besides, check out how pleasant the water looks:



wat. i mean, if we know he's betting the turn 100% of the time, floating is clearly not that good of an option. but how can you possibly know this? do you have stats on him that indicate that it's the case?