No real reads on villain as I only have about 50 hands in my hud on him. According to stats he has been fairly aggressive on the turn and river. Pretty much hoping he has some kind of A5 hand he bets on the river when he plays this hand so passively prior to the river. Snap call 4bet on the river?

$0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 171.16 BB (VPIP: 30.15, PFR: 24.62, 3Bet Preflop: 6.73, Hands: 336)
Hero (MP): 104.48 BB
CO: 34.56 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
BTN: 88.38 BB (VPIP: 20.88, PFR: 9.89, 3Bet Preflop: 2.63, Hands: 93)
SB: 223.7 BB (VPIP: 26.85, PFR: 16.14, 3Bet Preflop: 3.04, Hands: 685)
BB: 91.96 BB (VPIP: 43.48, PFR: 8.70, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 47)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 7 8

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (9.5 BB, 3 players) 5 9 K
BB checks, Hero bets 5.74 BB, fold, BB calls 5.74 BB

Turn: (20.98 BB, 2 players) 5
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (20.98 BB, 2 players) 6
BB bets 15.72 BB, Hero raises to 47 BB, BB raises to 78.28 BB, Hero calls 31.28 BB

So because he's "fairly aggressive on the turn" you check a good draw and forego any fold equity you might have? Also, you have only 47 hands with him. Let's imagine he's seen 15-20 flops. How many turns can you possibly base this on? Just bet the turn. River's whatever because folding for 31 in a pot of 150 is outrageous against this guy but I doubt we're good often.

I check back the paired turn because I choose not to bluff on them most of the time - nothing to do with villains stats. You're right though, this is one of the few bluffs I should be betting on the turn.

Tbf i don't think checking turn is that bad in a vacuum. Looking at villains stats i don't think we're getting many folds, tripling is unwise, think we should just try to realise our equity as cheaply as possible.

Got to call river now vs this guy.

At first, I thought I'd like a turn bet, but actually this turn check is v good, I think. Yes, we can get better hands to fold but we keep bluffs in his range with this, and there's a lot of gutshot straight draws on this board.

Counter to this, it's difficult to work out, when we don't hit a heart or a 6, what's a safe card for us to bluff on, which means we're unlikely to be happy trying to take the pot down OTR unimproved.

As played, I think we keep some bluffs in his range — there are a lot of draws here that don't come in — and by checking we've indicated that we're scared of the second 5. Villain dependent but this can induce some spew.

The min-click is scary but with the line you took, I don't think there's any question but call; we're nearly at the top of our range based on how we've played the hand. We're rarely if ever checking turn if we have a 5 in our hand.

Got unlucky if you lost this one; most of the time (readless) it's an +EV call. I couldn't make the fold at least — gotta learn to though, me!

(Thanks for the post; interesting one.)

We have 8 high ffs. We don't want to "keep bluffs in his range". If we check, he's always betting river and we're losing the pot a lot more than we should.

Bet turn for sure. I like the value raise on river, and I wouldn't expect the shove but we're committed so just call and hope he didn't fill up