no data on villain but let's assume he's a reg

What's your play on the river? If you raise, what size would you choose and why?

Id raise turn. As played river is raise as well...

I am raising river. Without history I think pushing looks more bluffy in this spot then any other sizing

Seems like an easy river shove.

^ that's what I did. Though, after analysing the hand, I believe it's the worst option besides folding.

would be interesting to see the analysis and the other better options

Sure, but I'm waiting for some more replies first

Hopefully this post isn't overly rhetorical or just 'duh' but when deciding which street to raise I think we need to weight these factors into our decision:

Our raising range is widest and contains enough worse hands that don't negatively affect our EV by calling on previous streets just to include them as bluffs

Our perceived raising range can be seen as wide enough to call with a wide defending range

Villains defending range is at it's widest.

The raise does not prohibit too much additional future action from villain so as to negatively affect our overall EV.

I think for this hand the turn has almost everything going for it. We can choose to raise some straight draws or low pair+flush draws we picked up on the turn, villain will be barrelling with almost all A and will have to defend quite a few of them, and we only adversely affect 1 more street of betting but villain will still have to defend it some non-0 part of the time here with a made hand.

Hopefully that makes sense but as always willing to be picked a part.

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He's got like ~65 behind, pot's around 50 before your action.

Raise to like ~40 imo. He can make plenty of bad decisions that way imo

Any reason why you decide to slow play and not raise the flop against an unknown?

As played, raising the river seems fairly meh. We are behind 23s, 67, AA and KK, whereas he might call with 44, 55, AK... I'm assuming he's decent and views you as decent.

A raise on the river from us here can rarely be a bluff

lolwut?

shove

if i think about how i would few ur riverrange (vs unknown) when u raise/shove it would be very strong. so i would just think a unknown reg wont have many bluffs on river and fold strong hands. but idk what to do on river vs this exact opponent.

why not raise flop?

Deffo jam river ranges widen so much btn vs bb

edit: why'd you say "no data but assume reg"?

I think we should definitely raise some sets on the turn but most likely not all of them

I think that's actually better than shoving but I'm not entirely sure it beats calling.

For the sake of discussion.

What do you guys think is the bottom of villain's value range on the river?

AQ

I think it's a fair assumption, I'd be tempted to believe he's more polarized than that when he bets 22 into 26, I think he should be at least.

But lets go with this assumption. Villain's value range includes all AQ and all 2pairs without a K. It's likely optimistic as villain would check back some A4, A5 on the flop.

Anyway, that gives us 89 value combos. Assuming he's betting a balanced range on the river, he's bluffing 89x0.31 combos or ~28 combos. Giving us a total of 117 combos he's betting on the river.

Let's say we shove. We're risking 87 to win 48.5. Our bluffs have to work more than 64% of the time to show a profit, thus villain needs to defend 36% to remain unexploitable.

0.36x117 = 42 combos. That's 20 combos of str8, 15 combos of sets, and 7 combos of 2 pairs. 88 has 33.3% against that range so clearly shoving would be incorrect in theory.

Seems hard to argue with; guess a smaller raise is in order.

Turn is an easy c/c, btw.

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I'm new to these working through these calcs, so may have this wrong.... but are you sure we are risking 87? That would be true if we were comparing shoving to folding, but we're never folding here so shouldn't your calc exclude the cost of calling his bet as in either scenario we are going to risk the first $22?

Ian

It doesn't matter which hand we have. What's important is how often villain has to call to prevent us from shoving ATC profitably.

Really interesting analysis and result, ForeverLearning! I hope some of the good theory posters here could weigh in and verify the results and/or discuss this some more. I'm amazed that it might be -EV to shove this when it seems to every reg to be an obvious all-in.

I think this part is incorrect. I believe villain has to bluff with 31% of his entire range not 31% of his value range. Please correct me if I'm wrong I will outline my thought process below:

1. Villain's value range as described by op does include 89 combos.

2. In order for villain to value bet 89 combos on the river he needs to have ~129 total combos in his betting range.

We need 31% equity to make a call. Since it's the river this is equivalent to 31% of villain's range we beat with a certain hand. Let x represent the number of bluff combos in villain's range and (x+89) represent the total number of combos in villain's range.

(x/(x+89)) = .31
x=.31x+27.49
.69x = 27.49
x = 39.9 or ~ 40 so villain's total combinations should be ~129.

3. Villain needs to defend out shove ~36% of the time.

We're shoving 87 to win 48.50. Let x be the needed fold equity then (1-x) is villain's defending percent.

x*(48.50) - (1-x)*(87) = 0
135.50x = 87
x = 64.2 % so (1-x) = 35.8%

4. Villain defends with .358*(129) combos from his range which is 46.182 or ~ 46 combos. This means villain defends all straights, sets, AK, A8, and 2 combos of A5. Against that range 88 has (20/46) or ~ 43% equity. So still not a shove.

Villain's range that I used in case you were curious (combinations in paranthesis; running tally 3rd column):
67 (16) 16
23s (4) 20
AA (3) 23
KK (3) 26
55 (3) 29
44 (3) 32
AK (9) 41
A8 (3) 44
A5 (9) 53
A4 (9) 62
45 (9) 71
85 (3) 74
84 (3) 77
AQ (12) 89

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That seems correct, thanks for the correction

lol so bad

Why are we excluding 99s through QQs in villian's range?

That range is by no means the most accurate but I doubt those hands barrell all 3 streets here.

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