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River decision 200nl River decision 200nl

10-16-2014 , 10:51 AM
Hand is played on Bovada so no reads at the time villian was 17/17, I think the river tbh is a fairly easy fold i think calling would be the worse option by far.

I block QJ he almost never has QJ I think most players with out any history just tend to bet that. So I really want to just jam here as I think he has some sort of 89 T9 , K9 combo, And usually if I have some reads I wouldn't mind just jamming here but on Bovada it's just too hard to get a solid read with such small samples.

So my question is can I just jam here as a default? assuming I have the basic reads full stack and playing 17/17 so far.


CO: $41.00 (VPIP: 29.59, PFR: 18.66, 3Bet Preflop: 4.73, Hands: 25,087)
BTN: $209.35 (VPIP: 37.25, PFR: 23.79, 3Bet Preflop: 6.38, Hands: 38,285)
SB: $309.75 (VPIP: 34.27, PFR: 13.36, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 38,637)
Hero (BB): $441.90
UTG: $206.00 (VPIP: 25.69, PFR: 17.91, 3Bet Preflop: 5.97, Hands: 38,726)
MP: $289.48 (VPIP: 27.82, PFR: 18.46, 3Bet Preflop: 4.24, Hands: 36,523)

SB posts SB $1.00, Hero posts BB $2.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $3.00) Hero has K J

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $5.00, fold, Hero calls $3.00

Flop: ($11.00, 2 players) K T 8
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($11.00, 2 players) 3
Hero bets $8.00, BTN calls $8.00

River: ($27.00, 2 players) 9
Hero bets $19.50, BTN raises to $59.00, Hero...
10-16-2014 , 12:48 PM
Does QJ fit into your line here? Because if not and his most likely hands are 2 pair and you didn't 3 bet pre you rep 88 maybe with this line. So if he can piece that together I'd say you're throwing money away trying to get him to fold.

Edit: I guess 67s too and not just QJ.
10-16-2014 , 01:38 PM
I bet a little bit bigger on the river. As played I think I fold given that this is Bovada and people never seem to fold there. I think our range could be a little wider than Qj here as 33 88 10 10 and k 10 could be apart of our range.
10-16-2014 , 02:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by the real mg0698
Hand is played on Bovada so no reads at the time villian was 17/17, I think the river tbh is a fairly easy fold i think calling would be the worse option by far.

I block QJ he almost never has QJ I think most players with out any history just tend to bet that. So I really want to just jam here as I think he has some sort of 89 T9 , K9 combo, And usually if I have some reads I wouldn't mind just jamming here but on Bovada it's just too hard to get a solid read with such small samples.

So my question is can I just jam here as a default? assuming I have the basic reads full stack and playing 17/17 so far.
No, I don't think you can jam here as a default. Given stack sizes and his river raise on this board I doubt he is laying down his hand. Check/call might be better on the river.

There are 3 combos of QJs out there and 4combos of 67s (which just_grindin mentioned). Also the somewhat less likely slow played and rivered trips.
10-16-2014 , 03:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RevengeoftheDonks
I bet a little bit bigger on the river. As played I think I fold given that this is Bovada and people never seem to fold there. I think our range could be a little wider than Qj here as 33 88 10 10 and k 10 could be apart of our range.
I will grant that 88,33, and KT can be in your river betting range but are they all in your river 3bet range? Idk the answer to that.
10-16-2014 , 06:18 PM
youve gathered 38000 hands on villain since then?
10-16-2014 , 07:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by just_grindin
I will grant that 88,33, and KT can be in your river betting range but are they all in your river 3bet range? Idk the answer to that.
Not saying they are all in my 3 bet range but possibly. Would depend on dynamic and if I think he would call with worse. I need to really work on my math in these situations as I am often lazy and play intuitively. I feel K 10 is pretty much the same as 88 and 33 and expect villain to be c betting here most of the time with 6 7 and j7, other than maybe something like 6c7c or Jc7c that has some extra backdoor equity and didn't want to get c/r. I think another good question is what 2 pair hands he raises the river with. Not sure if I'm in villains shoes if I am raising the river with hands like 89 and 9 10 which makes me want to fold KJ here even more.
10-16-2014 , 07:29 PM
From what i've heard don't try and get unknowns on Bovada to fold.
10-16-2014 , 07:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RevengeoftheDonks
Not saying they are all in my 3 bet range but possibly. Would depend on dynamic and if I think he would call with worse. I need to really work on my math in these situations as I am often lazy and play intuitively. I feel K 10 is pretty much the same as 88 and 33 and expect villain to be c betting here most of the time with 6 7 and j7, other than maybe something like 6c7c or Jc7c that has some extra backdoor equity and didn't want to get c/r. I think another good question is what 2 pair hands he raises the river with. Not sure if I'm in villains shoes if I am raising the river with hands like 89 and 9 10 which makes me want to fold KJ here even more.
I agree I wouldn't raise those 2p hands as well but that is pretty much what he is going to have here a ton imo, maybe rivered set
10-16-2014 , 09:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by the real mg0698
I agree I wouldn't raise those 2p hands as well but that is pretty much what he is going to have here a ton imo, maybe rivered set
I agree that's what his line looks like but like mcnuts said if it's Bovada and villain is raising those here I don't think he's r/folding....
10-17-2014 , 01:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mucknuts
From what i've heard don't try and get unknowns on Bovada to fold.
+1
10-17-2014 , 02:27 AM
Riverbet is too thin on that runout I think.
10-17-2014 , 05:59 AM
Well played if you didn't call his raise OTR imo. Folding and shoving seem both fine to me. He has a bluffcatcher when he checks back the flop and calls your bet OTT. Why should he turn a bluffcatcher into a bluff, thereby repping a straight which he basically can't have given how he played that hand OTF, when he could also bluffcatch OTR!? I think his raising-range mostly consists of 99 or weakish 2pairs like T9/89 once in a while. I doubt the average player bluff-raises here often enough to be able to call his raise.
10-17-2014 , 06:52 AM
He can have plenty of bluffs, QT and TJ being the most likely, also Q8/J8
10-17-2014 , 07:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nirwanda
He can have plenty of bluffs, QT and TJ being the most likely, also Q8/J8
He could turn those into a bluff-raise for sure, but I doubt the average player does this very often for the following reasons:

1. He was in bluffcatch-mode OTT so he has to realize his bluffcatcher could be turned into a bluff OTR.
2. Most QT, TJ, Q8 and J8 combos block pairs/2pair and the straight but not the missed FD. This makes bluffcatching the river with those hands a reasonable option (no need to turn them into a bluff).
3. He might be aware of the fact that his bluff-raise basically reps a hand he doesn't even have in his range.
4. The sizing doesn't really look like a bluff to me.
10-17-2014 , 10:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nirwanda
Riverbet is too thin on that runout I think.
wow really? I disagree seems to me like an easy VB
10-17-2014 , 10:54 AM
He station?

Likely checkback is Tx or 8x, many of those hands have either improved or has an awful board to bluffcatch.
10-17-2014 , 11:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nirwanda
He station?

Likely checkback is Tx or 8x, many of those hands have either improved or has an awful board to bluffcatch.
Looked like a clear bet to me at first but now that I think about it that 9 is a pretty good card for his range. I think villain bets hands like A 10 on flop and is more likely to check back q 10 j 10 type hands. I do think he is much more likely to call with q 10 and j 10 though then turn them into bluff. Check folding this river seems way too weak but cant imagine what worse hands he would bet if we checked..
10-17-2014 , 12:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nirwanda
He station?

Likely checkback is Tx or 8x, many of those hands have either improved or has an awful board to bluffcatch.
Hand is played on Bovada, so no history reads

      
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