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Old 08-11-2012, 07:00 PM   #1
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A Real Look At Handreading

After a significant downswing recently, I decided it was time to reassess some aspects of my game with a more focused lens. I read HomeyG30's post on deliberate poker drills (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/10...-nlhe-1107105/) and was really interested by the handreading drill he describes wherein you

1)Filter HEM for all hands where showdown = true

2)Go through each hand street by street with flopzilla/stove and narrow down villain's range as much as possible until showdown.

3) Keep a tally of how many times villain's hand is within that range, and how many times villain shows up with an unexpected holding.

Some impressions:

-I'm consistently giving villain too narrow a range (mostly preflop, but often post as well). Making a mistake early in the hand really screws up the ability to make +EV plays later on.

-It's pretty nuts how few flush draws tight players have. Conversely, I have re-realized that loose passive players often have a significant amount of flushdraws on even high two tone boards.

-I under-utilize the hell out of my HUD

-My autopilot is killing me. There have been so many hands I've butchered based on a lack of reading and reliance on 'standard' lines. When going through and trying to systematically narrow down ranges, I've found that often times I'll bet TPMK for value when it's extremely unlikely 50% of his calling range is behind me (and other similar mistakes). I remember watching a replay of me playing A9o or something on an Axx rainbow board where I just kept betting against a average-ish player. When I did the handreading exercise, OTR all his hands that would call anymore were ahead of me, yet I was still "value-betting".

-I have had to face the truth that I'm making pretty terrible hand selection decision preflop. When I plug in some of my OOP calling hands against even REALLY wide opening ranges, I'm often behind! For example, A3s is a hand I was cold calling BTN opens with in the BB. Well, against a 52% opening range, we have only 51.7% equity, and we're OOP. I personally am just giving up too much card equity to make up for with skill advantage. Speaking of skill advantage...

-Overall, I am god awful at hand reading...embarrassingly so. I think currently I'm 53 correct out of 86 attempts. This means that 38.4% of the time villains have shown up with hands THAT I DIDN'T EXPECT THEM TO EVER HAVE. If this is a problem for me, I'm guessing it's a pretty big problem for others as well. I've spent countless hours chatting about specific hands, watching videos, making and discussing videos, having coaching sessions, posting hands...and with all that energy put towards the game, I am still pretty damn bad at hand reading.

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How many posts do you see where it's painfully obvious that the OP has not taken the time to even give villain a range? It's something to seriously look at if you are wanting to be successful at poker.
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Old 08-11-2012, 07:39 PM   #2
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Re: A Real Look At Handreading

yo, mods, I meant to post this in micros, can someone move it?
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Old 08-11-2012, 07:52 PM   #3
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Re: A Real Look At Handreading

i think this post could be relevant to any stakes.
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Old 08-11-2012, 08:32 PM   #4
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Re: A Real Look At Handreading

not relevant to handreading, but here's a link i think you'll appreciate
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Old 08-11-2012, 08:33 PM   #5
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Re: A Real Look At Handreading

heh, wp
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Old 08-11-2012, 08:34 PM   #6
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Re: A Real Look At Handreading

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Old 08-12-2012, 01:29 PM   #7
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Re: A Real Look At Handreading

Nice post
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Old 08-12-2012, 03:54 PM   #8
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Re: A Real Look At Handreading

Good post.
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Old 08-12-2012, 04:45 PM   #9
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Re: A Real Look At Handreading

Quote:
Originally Posted by Infection View Post
-I have had to face the truth that I'm making pretty terrible hand selection decision preflop. When I plug in some of my OOP calling hands against even REALLY wide opening ranges, I'm often behind! For example, A3s is a hand I was cold calling BTN opens with in the BB. Well, against a 52% opening range, we have only 51.7% equity, and we're OOP. I personally am just giving up too much card equity to make up for with skill advantage. Speaking of skill advantage...
this is just wrong. preflop equity isn't everything when usually not more than 1/33th of your stack goes in preflop against a single raise, otherwise we'd never call 22 for example.
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Old 08-12-2012, 04:55 PM   #10
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Re: A Real Look At Handreading

Quote:
Originally Posted by forthelulz60 View Post
this is just wrong. preflop equity isn't everything when usually not more than 1/33th of your stack goes in preflop against a single raise, otherwise we'd never call 22 for example.
We don't.
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Old 08-12-2012, 06:02 PM   #11
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Re: A Real Look At Handreading

Quote:
Originally Posted by forthelulz60 View Post
this is just wrong. preflop equity isn't everything when usually not more than 1/33th of your stack goes in preflop against a single raise, otherwise we'd never call 22 for example.
I agree, but that's not what I'm talking about with that observation. I was making calls with hands that I thought were enough ahead of villain's loose opening range, and when I look at it, it became clear that I was overestimating my equity vs. a given range. I agree that calling for implied odds or calling with the plan of exploiting a postflop leak, etc are +EV spots even when we KNOW we won't fare well at showdown the majority of the time. I'm merely owning one of MY leaks...the misperception of starting hand equity against different ranges.
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Old 08-12-2012, 10:18 PM   #12
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Re: A Real Look At Handreading

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Originally Posted by Nirwanda View Post
We don't.
meh I don't understand why people take a position that everyone knows is only being taken for the sake of being argumentative, rather than actually trying to start a real discussion or provide anything of use. there are situations where we call with 22 preflop and make money on average.

if you want to argue that 22 isn't profitable then just replace it with say 77 against a 13,42% UTG range. you're at an equity disadvantage (less than 50%) but calling is certainly fine.

Infection : I just don't think preflop equity is all that important when very often you don't get to realize it anyway. K3o has better equity against wide ranges than 98s but you'd much rather have 98s in most cases so I don't see how you can fix this leak by looking at preflop equities and basing your hand selection preflop on them seems pretty bad to me.
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