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QQ stack off std or not ? QQ stack off std or not ?

02-06-2014 , 02:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DiSSaoR
Thats the worst scenario possible.
I agree that is worst case scenario


Quote:
As we cant discard worse hands from unknown stack off range thats not the real ev.
That is the real ev if villains range is QQ+ AK. But thats why I also included the ev if were up against JJ+ AQ+, which is ~+9bbs. If were up against JJ+ AK our ev is roughly ~+6bbs.


Quote:
I actually think JJ is very likely, and some other hands dont have 0% probability either.
It's certainly possible but for the vast majority of players at 100nl it's going to be QQ+ AK when they squeeze over an MP open. And since were up against a relative unknown I tend to err on the side of caution.

Quote:
I dont think it should be black or white for every particular hand
Why not, the math doesn't lie?

All I'm saying is villains 5b range should determine what our most +ev line is, whether that be call or 4b/c. If it's QQ+ AK this is not a cooler spot and were making a mistake by 4b instead of calling.
02-06-2014 , 02:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ckrumm24
I'm sorry but in this sample I'm finding it very difficult to include JJ in his 5bet shove range without further information.
My thoughts exactly.
02-06-2014 , 04:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Curtlow
Why not, the math doesn't lie?

All I'm saying is villains 5b range should determine what our most +ev line is, whether that be call or 4b/c. If it's QQ+ AK this is not a cooler spot and were making a mistake by 4b instead of calling.
It would be - ev only if you were 100% sure no reg ever gets it in with JJ or worse. If you are not 100% sure he has QQ+ AK only once he 5bets then stoving that range is a contradiction and leads to a missleading result. Actually I dont think we can assign exactly 100% to any range of hands ever (people do though for practical purposes). In this hand for example I wouldnt say its completely certain he always plays QQ+/AK by sqz/shoving but I'm pretty sure the times he doesnt are outshined by the times he takes that line with JJ or worse. So if in the worst scenario its really close like in the math you did, then certainly it's + ev as a general rule, not only for this hand
02-06-2014 , 05:43 PM
fold pre against an opponent with stat 11% 3bet BB because you are up against {AK,AA,KK} .

To make a QQ all-in pre call profitable you want an opponent whose range is wider for preflop all-in {TT+,AQ+}. A LAG with a stat like 30-40+% 3bet BB would be ideal to call against.
02-06-2014 , 06:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerfunAK
fold pre against an opponent with stat 11% 3bet BB because you are up against {AK,AA,KK} .

To make a QQ all-in pre call profitable you want an opponent whose range is wider for preflop all-in {TT+,AQ+}. A LAG with a stat like 30-40+% 3bet BB would be ideal to call against.
+10
03-08-2014 , 02:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Curtlow
Not sure of sample size but my standard is to flat QQ in this spot until I have some kind of dynamic built up vs villain. I still get stacked on that run out but I at least give my opponent a chance to bluff/bet worse rather than narrowing his range with a 4bet. Once you 4bet then yeah you have to call the shove.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Curtlow
Against a felting range of QQ+,AK our overall expectation of 4bet calling QQ is -0.368bb, and that includes the buttons $3. So were losing money by felting so calling would be better against this range. If we add JJ into villains range our EV is +4.93bbs. Not sure we can include JJ into villains range since he is unknown so I still think calling is best.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Curtlow
Nope that's included unless I did something wrong. I'll look at it again when I get a chance and make sure I didn't make a mistake.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Curtlow
Looked at it again and looks like everything was correct except I forgot to add the SB into final pot. So our overall expectation if were up against QQ+,AK is -0.288bbs. Given we have position and we keep villains range wide we can expect to win more than this by calling.

If we knew villain would felt JJ+,AQ our OE would be +9.3bbs.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Curtlow
I agree that is worst case scenario




That is the real ev if villains range is QQ+ AK. But thats why I also included the ev if were up against JJ+ AQ+, which is ~+9bbs. If were up against JJ+ AK our ev is roughly ~+6bbs.




It's certainly possible but for the vast majority of players at 100nl it's going to be QQ+ AK when they squeeze over an MP open. And since were up against a relative unknown I tend to err on the side of caution.



Why not, the math doesn't lie?

All I'm saying is villains 5b range should determine what our most +ev line is, whether that be call or 4b/c. If it's QQ+ AK this is not a cooler spot and were making a mistake by 4b instead of calling.
I know its been a while since this thread was started but I wanted to fix a mistake I made.

When I did the calculations in this hand I was using the formula in Matthew Janda's book. However I found out today that the formula in the book is wrong, so my calculations are wrong and have been for other spots I've calculated.

If villain is folding 60% of the time to our 4 bet we win +11.4bbs overall. 19(.60)=11.4

If we 4bet call a 5 bet and we're up against QQ+ AK (still think this is the most likely range from these positions) we lose -14.70 bbs. And since that happens 40% of the time, our ev is -5.88bbs.

Which means our overall ev for 4bet calling is 11.4 + (-5.88) = +5.52bbs. So I'm changing my mind. I'm in the 4bet/call camp instead of flatting the 3bet. And it gets a lot better from there if we can add JJ and/or AQ to villains range.

Just wanted to fix my mistake and use the correct formula.
03-09-2014 , 11:47 AM
I 4-bet/call too.

I also 4-bet QJ in this spot, we need to have a balanced range.
03-10-2014 , 11:02 AM
4b/call

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03-11-2014 , 03:49 AM
lol i missed that button is a short stack so he's probably a fish. Therefore, I'm flatting pre.
03-11-2014 , 03:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BonitaMadras
yes, to be fair the last point is more of a nice side effect than a reason. But why don't you think it is important to protect our equity vs. AJ, KXs type of hands, if villain is not likely going to barrel low boards, where he has very little equity, with these hands anyway ?

50% of all flops contain either an Ace or a King, so i assume you are flatting AK as well ?
We let him connect post flop with dominated hands by flatting. And yes I'm flatting AK.
03-11-2014 , 07:19 AM
What's his likely squeezing range vs. a MP open that will connect AND has us in good shape ?

On the upside, AJ on a J-high board (happens very rarely and we might not even stack him postflop), KQ, AQ on Qxx (even rarer) are good for hero.
On the downside we have AQ, AJ, KQ, KXs etc. etc. possibly outflopping us. If we get stacks in vs. some random flushdraw with 1 overcard, thats not thrilling either.

A flat also looks pretty strong (such as a 4b), and i think villain can play very well against us postflop, in that he probably won't bluff too much.

If the above is true, the result will be that we get stacked postflop by hands that would have stacked us preflop anyway (no difference), but we will rarely get a lot of money from hands that would have folded to the 4b while occasionally losing a big pot to those hands.
I'd much rather clear my equity with QQ here and occasionally slowplay with AA, which is much less likely to be outdrawn postflop.

my 2c
03-12-2014 , 09:46 AM
Flat the $12.50

      
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