Quote:
Originally Posted by Curtlow
Not sure of sample size but my standard is to flat QQ in this spot until I have some kind of dynamic built up vs villain. I still get stacked on that run out but I at least give my opponent a chance to bluff/bet worse rather than narrowing his range with a 4bet. Once you 4bet then yeah you have to call the shove.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Curtlow
Against a felting range of QQ+,AK our overall expectation of 4bet calling QQ is -0.368bb, and that includes the buttons $3. So were losing money by felting so calling would be better against this range. If we add JJ into villains range our EV is +4.93bbs. Not sure we can include JJ into villains range since he is unknown so I still think calling is best.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Curtlow
Nope that's included unless I did something wrong. I'll look at it again when I get a chance and make sure I didn't make a mistake.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Curtlow
Looked at it again and looks like everything was correct except I forgot to add the SB into final pot. So our overall expectation if were up against QQ+,AK is -0.288bbs. Given we have position and we keep villains range wide we can expect to win more than this by calling.
If we knew villain would felt JJ+,AQ our OE would be +9.3bbs.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Curtlow
I agree that is worst case scenario
That is the real ev if villains range is QQ+ AK. But thats why I also included the ev if were up against JJ+ AQ+, which is ~+9bbs. If were up against JJ+ AK our ev is roughly ~+6bbs.
It's certainly possible but for the vast majority of players at 100nl it's going to be QQ+ AK when they squeeze over an MP open. And since were up against a relative unknown I tend to err on the side of caution.
Why not, the math doesn't lie?
All I'm saying is villains 5b range should determine what our most +ev line is, whether that be call or 4b/c. If it's QQ+ AK this is not a cooler spot and were making a mistake by 4b instead of calling.
I know its been a while since this thread was started but I wanted to fix a mistake I made.
When I did the calculations in this hand I was using the formula in Matthew Janda's book. However I found out today that the formula in the book is wrong, so my calculations are wrong and have been for other spots I've calculated.
If villain is folding 60% of the time to our 4 bet we win +11.4bbs overall. 19(.60)=11.4
If we 4bet call a 5 bet and we're up against QQ+ AK (still think this is the most likely range from these positions) we lose -14.70 bbs. And since that happens 40% of the time, our ev is -5.88bbs.
Which means our overall ev for 4bet calling is 11.4 + (-5.88) = +5.52bbs. So I'm changing my mind. I'm in the 4bet/call camp instead of flatting the 3bet. And it gets a lot better from there if we can add JJ and/or AQ to villains range.
Just wanted to fix my mistake and use the correct formula.