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Plan for the river with a set? Plan for the river with a set?

08-20-2015 , 03:31 PM
BTN: 105.68 BB (VPIP: 25.29, PFR: 21.84, 3Bet Preflop: 21.88, Hands: 87)
SB: 120.56 BB (VPIP: 19.05, PFR: 19.05, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 19.42, PFR: 14.56, 3Bet Preflop: 10.26, Hands: 107)
Hero (UTG): 112.86 BB
MP: 45 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
CO: 100.04 BB (VPIP: 23.58, PFR: 19.81, 3Bet Preflop: 10.53, Hands: 109)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8 8

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, CO calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) 9 8 6
Hero bets 5.72 BB, CO calls 5.72 BB

Turn: (18.94 BB, 2 players) K
Hero bets 14.46 BB, CO calls 14.46 BB

River: (47.86 BB, 2 players) T
Hero ????

What is my plan for the river? Bet call? Bet fold? Check Call?

I think he could have a few sevens in his range.
08-20-2015 , 03:47 PM
b/c is the worst line of the 3 you mentioned.
I would b/f vs rec, x/f vs passive players.
I would need a read to x/c since there isn't that many value hands we beat that villain could c/c/b with. If they are capable turning hands like AT, JT, KJ into bluffs or they go for thin value with KT, 9T then I'll x/c rivers.
08-24-2015 , 08:14 PM
It's definitely either bet/fold or check/call.

Vs TAG's I think you can bet/fold and be assured he isn't raising worse or bluffing that often

vs fish I'd check/call

agree that bet/call is the worst option
08-26-2015 , 12:57 AM
After calling flop and turn he has a lot of 7s IMO but also lots of 2 pairs. Think i like b/f just because i don't think checking gets us much more value and we can loose a lot. just hard for villain to get here with a hand that needs to bluff imo. think if he doesn't have a 7 think he almost always has a pair that will x/b and any hand he V bets he calls a bet anyway and he may bet smaller then we would since we look weak after checking river.

In terms of sizing 2/3 pot is standard, i sometimes merge and overbet this against players that know I'm capable of bluffing and see me as LAGy as they are never folding 2 pair.

With a lot of history and knowledge of a player, and i mean a lot, you can pull out some fancy plays here as well.

blocker beting to induce and calling a raise can sometimes work

taking the merge further and x/r river is also interesting as you really only rep QJ so a thinking player may look you up light.

like i said i don't think those two are standard or normally recommended in anyway.

I b/f here.
08-26-2015 , 09:20 AM
First of all on that table you need to open a lot on that table.(idk your VPIP and PFR.)

His calling range would be around: (66)77-JJ, ATs- AQs, AQ+(maybe he 3b AKo to), KTs+,QJs,JTs,J9s. (93 with 66)87combos.
Calling AA is also possible because some aggro 3bs in later position. 6 combos.

His continu on the flop would be:
77,99,TT,JJ ,T9s,JTs, AQs,ATs, KTs, QJs. Maybe AJs and KQs. combos: 52
Sizing good.

Turn is a good spot to bet pot so you can check river(depends on the river).
His calling range on the turn would be around: AQdd,ATdd, KQs,KTs,QJdd, 77,TT,JJ,JTs,T9s. he would raise 9s on the turn.

Ts is not the worst card, only QJdd gets there.
So i like to bet half pot, vs fish maybe bigger, but they have proberly a weider range.
You will only loose vs 1 combo of QJ, and 99 but he would raise that on the turn. so you beat 36 from the 42 combos.
08-26-2015 , 12:45 PM
Easy bet/fold. Two pairs and other stuff call but mostly straights shove when it turns 4 straight. A few bluffs but not likely enough without some great read.
08-26-2015 , 04:58 PM
I did saw something wrong, will change tomorrow*
08-26-2015 , 10:53 PM
Bet fold verse passive check call verse high af

      
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