This "Sky is falling attitude" here is a huge overreacting imo.

1. Lots of botting discussion here and ppl getting paranoid ala TimStone("50% of 100nl regs are bots").
As a personal opinion, 100nl didn't seem botty to me, and if it was the bots weren't that good and almost for sure they weren't GTO-like bots.
Bots have been used for quite a while it seems. Kalben and Romulaz didn't start playing yesterday.
The fact that many have been caught and the wheels are moving now is a positive thing, even though you get sick to hear that a lot of the players at our tables were bots.
Again, they have been here for a long time, now at least some are getting banned!

2. Legislation/regulation was a major pain in the ass before, at the moment most countries have an ok law and the trend is good.
Look at how crappy it started out with France, Italy, Spain ...then Black Friday.
Much better now

3. 3rd party software restriction. With more and more advanced features of notecaddy-like programs the game was getting botty in an allowed way.
Badges to highlight weaknesses, timing tell notes, etc were banned, at least on PS.
Even data mining has been restricted now in zoom games at least.

4. PS made a change that took a cut out of our rakeback. It wasn't a huge cut unless you were SNE. To their credit they at least ran some good promos this month with the daily challenges.
We had cuts before...the switch from dealt to contributed was a cut for most regs.

5. We used to have a russian shortstack invasion, 4 out of 6 and 6 out of 9 players were shortstackers.
The games were really not fun at all during that time. That has also changed for the better. You can say that at least they weren't bots(well, who knows if they weren't?) but I don't think you can say we were winning any money out of them either.

Backup plans are a must-have in this industry as a player, that was true before and it's true now.
In the back of my mind I've always had the thought that maybe tomorrow my mind will be too old and unable to beat the games.
For whatever reason your online poker pro player career can come to a stop suddenly and you need to be prepared for that scenario.

But please, STFU with all the "Sky is falling, poker is dead, etc speech"

poker will always yield a nice side income which is just about perfect, not like anyone sane wants to do that forever anyway

https://www.weaktight.com/h/56d0d627d390431b5b8b4692

Very advanced RNG, every time I get to showdown with him he has completely ******ed hands like this.

.

1. Stars have been slow in banning them but I got the feeling that lately they have become way faster than before and have realized the seriousness of this issue.
Might be just my (wrong) impression.

2. I didn't mean that legislation in a country is a positive thing vs before where there was none there.
Legislation still means some kind of cut usually so it's not something that helps you.
What I meant is if you look at how it started: France, Italy segregated, then Spain the same...you'd get worried that each country will get like this.
Which didn't happen, you'd end up with some kind of tax but this is far better than being segregated.
In the first draft of the law here for example poker was banned and you faced a 2 year prison punishment.
In the final draft you just pay 1% on withdrawals and can only play on PS, 888, ipoker, etc

3. Long discussion, we'll see when it happens.
I believe my hourly would be similar as the volume would be larger per hour but it would be way harder on my eyes(I have really crappy eyes that bother me badly at 500h/hr +)
Table selection is obv an important part of the winrate but most regs use scripts but not many have a similar winrate.
I don't think I'd be up if I play at a table with 5 "pontys" but I also don't think you'd be up if you play at a table with 5 "me".

4. Nobody is arguing that the change doesn't suck. I just don't think it's to the extend of "sky is falling" conclusion.

For me at least and hopefully for you as well this is just a friendly debate agreeing and disagreeing, I do respect you as a player and poster here on 2+2 a lot btw.

Yeah I'm not having a go at anyone I just disagreed with some of your points. I think i'm in a better position than most for 200nl players etc but even I think my time left in this game is very finite. Nothing positive has happened to poker in the last 5 years as far as i can think of. it's only going to get worse.

Wanted to answer myself but ponty pretty much said it all. I still try:

In 2010/11 i made a quarter million each year, this year if im lucky i make 100k and given how my year started i doubt that.
All that being said being 10 times teh player i was back than (still cluless as wooollllldogg soon will add but still not as cluless as back then). And last year for instance i probably played moar hours than in 2010 for significantly less than half teh money (not taking studying into account which i didnt do in 2011).

Rgd regulation they took out another 30 countries or so, some which had teh biggest fish ever think qatar, emirates, singapore, etc and zero regs so im not sure how regulation went any better.

Rakeback over teh years decreased by over 50% for most, even moar for snes.
Switch old method to 5.5 per usd (15-20% hit), dealt to wc (10-30% hit), stars coin (20-50% hit) while rake stays exactly teh same and games getting tougher each day.

Volume decreasing each year. In 2010 you could 24table 400 and 600 fullring alone all day. Now you cant even 24table sh and fr 400-1k during peak. Back in teh day there where 60 200fullring tables. Now there maybe 8 during peak.

And im not even going into teh existance of gto solvers etc.


Sky is falling and its falling damn fast and if you arent seeing this for wat it is you're delusional

ten x zero is still zero

Well, it's just my opinion, they seem to be doing well vs my particular style. I have a tons of leaks and these two seem to exploit me quite well.

He had a 2k stack they other day (yeah, 20bi), and yesterday again 12bi stack.

He seem to be winning still. Everytime I see him he is deep everywhere.

No MTT, he has been crushing the z100 and z200 pool, already at z500? Damn! I though he quit after winning probably like 100bi in a month (obv bot, wtf).

Think there is extreme delusion occurring here

I also post this here cause in the MSNL-thread there is hardly action and Im curious what other ppl think about the thought of my buddy cause Im not sure about it and never have thought about that before...

-> copy/pasting-action:

I would be really super curious what was exactly going on with the recently banned players.

Hehe, yesterday a buddy from me had a kinda interesting thought - he said, the the overwhelming amount of russian and neighbouring easter-europe-countries is longterm pretty bad for the poker ecology regards to following thought of him:

He plays also live and knows therefore many recreational players privately who also donk sometimes online around for some fun...
He said that many of them are getting annoyed by now by playing only against mostly people from the countries russia, belarus and ukraine and that they enjoy onlinepoker partially so much because they love to battle around with people all around the world and that this flair (which seemingly is important for fun players) tends to more and more decrease...

not sure what to think bout his thoughts...

February done for me!

Great month overall (100% z100 on stars)

(x) I don't know what i'm doing half the time, the second half i'm just pulling a Matt Damon in Rounders, check-check-check, and people bluff like they can't resist the temptation of spewing their money.

() Poker is dead

http://imgur.com/Ywd2n4D

do you coach?

Nope, I don't think my english is good enough for that, and I don't think i'm good enough to coach as I have tons of leaks.

I'm a intuitive player, I just decide what to do with how I feel about the vilain in the moment. Most of the time i'm just checking (cbet 35%) and vilain give me their money, even the regs.

My style is kind of easy to reproduce, but you need to be mentaly strong and accept the fact that u'll let vilain chase their equity.

Poker is 80% mental, 15% skill 5% luck.

Most players are too stress/anxious when they play, and I exploit that by making huge call/fold, or just let them suicide themself with their timing tell.

I don't care about GTO, or the math/odds, this is overated, most of the time if you listen closely people will tell you what they have:

Some regs will never 3 barrel bluff (Daniiiiii, Sushifan, Wildace, Tmex, and tons of other reg).
Some will go crazy if you don't cbet wet board (think gomoneygov when he was still playing) some will play a weird bot strategy but u'll end up outdrawing them (Di Rossi81).
Some will just potcontrol but ending up been predictable (like never checking twice top pair, never cbetting second pair, etc).
Some will just spazz ramdomly (sorry, not naming regs as I want them to keep doing that) with no particular reason other then *he check, so he must be capped, let's 3 barrel bluff random!*.
Some will be nitty and predictable, making huge raise with good hands, like 3 betting to $12 then betting $18 in $24 on 348 board with AA.
Some when they check will fold everytime if you bet or if they call they will most likely never call 3 barrel because they are never strong enough (most of the time if they check and you bet flop, they will fold turn if you bet huge), most pot controler are like that (predictable).
Some are unpredictable, and it doesn't matter what style they play, you can be 20/15 like me and be tough to play against, or be 16/12 or 30/26 and be as tough. The key is postflop, I do believe you need to potcontrol to win in 2016, but you also need vs certain vilain to *overpotcontrol*, and vs some other to don't pot control or just be a bit weird and they will spazz.

All in all, most z100 regs have big ego, and the one that don't (pot control reg) are weak and predictable.

I fall in some of those category, i'm a bad poker player, but I avoid spewing most of the time because i'm discipline. I try to bluff when it's obv for me that I can get away with it, rather then just bluffing because the pot is big and vilain check.

I do believe that a nitty *discipline* reg who *overpotcontrol* can probably beat the game at 7-8bb/100 long term (z100), i'm not there yet, i'm too weak and underbluffing/raising because mentally i'm not there yet. The game is still well beatable, but in 2016 the edge is mentally. If you are mentally strong you can crush.

By been mentally strong I mean taking ur time before every decision, when I see a reg snap betting or snap calling the flop, I know he is mentally weak. You can't be impulsive, ego driven, or just stress/anxious while playing. Stress is the most underated aspect of the game, most crusher are probably never stress, always breathing the right way and taking their time.

Isn't that crazy low cbet lol? Nice graph tho

It's not crazy to have a 35% flop cbet when ur flop cbet success is also 35% , lol!

It's also not crazy to have such low cbet when people are overbluffing multiple barrels for no particular reason other then *he check 832dd, he must be capped to 77 or AKo!*.

Nah, all 100 players are just huge fkn nits.

Ya it's sorta depressing when you think about it. Every time there is a change it's higher rake or a lower edge game being introduced, are there really no changes that are good for both players and the site?

I see no reason why this is the case. Those PLO bots were absolutely crushing, and in hindsight they didn't look particularly hard to catch, however they survived for years and took 4.3mil out of the games. Stars decided fair compensation was what was in their accounts, less than 1% of what they took out of the games. The regulators are disappointing too, why does the UKGC get some % of my rake, if they don't do anything to protect me from cheaters and bots?

I think you're selling yourself short when you say you're not very good when you have a 4.4 w/r in a rake-trap game like 100z.

Obvs you could just be running super hot over the 100k hands tho idk.

Nice giraffe anyhoo.

Winning still? This guy was by far teh biggest losing reg at zoom when it was tracked and he will still be losing 2bb+ no matter how big of a stack he builds.

And 100k hands sample at zoom, yeah, lol

Imo, lot of them are just spewy when giving the chance, lot of them are pot controling nit, yes, but also kind of station (because they pot control always the same hand range).

I can name a tons of reg who spew sometime or even a lot if you play vs them a particular way (and some of them are huge nit):

Di Rossi81
Shnizzel
Symkalaila
Toplad14
Goormin
HannyaXP
Cwlrs
Jak_paist0r
Xudameinv
IL BRUTTOO

Even reg like Waixingren88, Franks86, Oscarleon, Dimastiy X and KASPAROV77 (huge nit) will random spazz.

I can name lot more, but of course regs like: Sushifan78, Razvan1990, Daposopo, Antman_B89, Perochan, Kemikar, Mossified84, Daniiiiil, Wildace_hun, sMex95, etc, rarely spew, no point in slowplaying them.

BelgianProud
Izbadaben
Mossified84
FireFFFly
ZuQiRio
Daposopo
Muglai

Are 7 regs that give me trouble for different reason. Biziiii is also a weird one, cause it's tough to make him spazz as he always has some showdown value.

But it's not that hard to find regs that spew, or will spew if you play a certain way.

And i'm not even naming the one tabling fish reg that play everyday like Eskimo Fox, Marcelik, and others.

He is always very deep when I see him play, but he spazz a lot, so u're probably right, I don't think spewer beat the rake.

I'm a bit over ev, but still over 4bb/100 yellow line over that sample.

I suck because I have tons of leaks, i'm not 3 betting enough, not defending my BB enough, not raising postflop enough, missing value all the time because i'm trapping too much, not pulling the big bluff when my instinct tell me I should be bluffing, etc. I do that sometime, but some other time i'm just too weak overall.

No idea if I have been running good, i'm fairly tight preflop so most of the time i'm at the good end of draws or set cooler*ish* .

Most regs probably think that I am a huge nit-fish, and they are right, but for some reason they keep calling me light, and overbluffing.

I'm doing nothing great most of the time, just wait for people to do some crazy plays.

p.s: A lot of reg are also cbetting way too big, even in 3 bet pot, I don't understand what they try to accomplish.