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Originally Posted by deathclassic
Turn seems weak imo, you've opened yourself up to a bluff otr. Take villain's perspective - you never check that turn if you have an ace so he feels fine leading otr knowing that you'll fold.
Given what we did up to the turn, I say we bet the turn. If villain raises, I think we have to fold. Otherwise a fold/check on the river depending on villain's move.
Why not? What would we be trying to accomplish if we called flop and bet turn with an ace? I don't think much worse calls from the average player and this board is drier than the Sahara. On the other hand, checking the ace back protects you and is a fairly safe play that can gain you an extra bet later, so actually my thoughts are more along the lines of why would villain bomb this river when our line reps an ace quite well?
Readless I think I'd fold here because this looks super polarized (like, boat or complete crap) and in my experience people are rarely balanced here.
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Villain donking this flop isn't proof enough to you that he's clicking buttons?
Not if he's doing it with a set. That would be pretty smart IMO, especially if villain thinks he can get alot of air to raise or float. Sets up a nice turn checkraise that would probably have Hero saying WTF with his aces and wanting to die with his floats. Granted, these two have no history, but if you're villain and have a big hand here, what better way to get to know someone than to try and build a pot?
Even if villain is fishy, that doesn't mean he can't mindlessly lead aces on the flop and then check the turn, especially his weaker aces. Adding any aces at all to villain's range doesn't help Hero at all. In fact, Hero beats nothing but a stone cold bluff on the river (aside from a fish overvaluing something weird like 77) and at the end of the day I don't believe that an unknown is ever betting an unexploitable range here. You are not good here anywhere near often enough IMO.