NL50 snap call vs probe ? - Small Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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NL50 snap call vs probe ?

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09-21-2016 , 10:55 PM

Gilgamesh94

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 602

partypoker - €0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 154.6 BB (VPIP: 70.75, PFR: 11.32, 3Bet Preflop: 6.19, Hands: 218)
BB: 120 BB (VPIP: 23.83, PFR: 15.37, 3Bet Preflop: 6.24, Hands: 6,144)
UTG: 534.44 BB (VPIP: 26.65, PFR: 17.15, 3Bet Preflop: 4.70, Hands: 388)
CO: 116.92 BB (VPIP: 31.18, PFR: 24.02, 3Bet Preflop: 7.09, Hands: 802)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.8 BB, SB calls 2.4 BB, fold

Flop: (6.6 BB, 2 players) T

SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (6.6 BB, 2 players) 4

SB bets 6.16 BB,

Vilain 73/9, 6/7 probe turn (4/5 probe river)
Against more passive fish i would 1/3 flop, against him i have to bluffcatch

Snap call turn and have to fold river against a 2/3 pot if unimprove ?

09-22-2016 , 12:10 AM

p0ker_n00b

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 2,264

Are you going to call a river bet as well if the river bricks and villain bombs the pot?

I mean I would fold here without further information - 73/9 does seems pretty passive already...lots of fish get scared on flush draws with a good hand so sometimes they bomb the pot...could be anything the fish has imo. 910, sets, 10x, etc.

09-22-2016 , 12:54 AM

NikoP

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 273

I don't understand this at all, why call a pot sized bet here, you're blocking a bunch of bluffs too... Just bet any flop and auto profit

09-22-2016 , 01:05 AM

p0ker_n00b

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 2,264

Quote:

Originally Posted by NikoP

I don't understand this at all, why call a pot sized bet here, you're blocking a bunch of bluffs too... Just bet any flop and auto profit

Niko, villain is 70/11, OP is not blocking many bluffs at all. He basically has a J so it takes a few combos of Jx OESD and gutshots out...but if you are suggesting OP's A

is blocking flush combos that is just totally irrelevant vs villains stats.

But this would be correct thinking vs more of a tighter range TAG player, yes.

09-22-2016 , 03:45 AM

Gilgamesh94

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 602

Quote:

Originally Posted by p0ker_n00b

73/9 does seems pretty passive already

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gilgamesh94

6/7 probe turn (4/5 probe river)

hmmm

09-22-2016 , 05:43 PM

keybattle

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 665

Quote:

Originally Posted by p0ker_n00b

Niko, villain is 70/11, OP is not blocking many bluffs at all. He basically has a J so it takes a few combos of Jx OESD and gutshots out...but if you are suggesting OP's A

is blocking flush combos that is just totally irrelevant vs villains stats.

But this would be correct thinking vs more of a tighter range TAG player, yes.

i don't understand how Ac is irrelevant. reasoning?

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09-22-2016 , 06:06 PM

p0ker_n00b

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 2,264

Quote:

Originally Posted by keybattle

i don't understand how Ac is irrelevant. reasoning?

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I personally feel that villain could have so many club combinations that rando's that using Ac as an argument for blockers is irrelevant.

09-22-2016 , 06:18 PM

keybattle

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 665

Quote:

Originally Posted by p0ker_n00b

I personally feel that villain could have so many club combinations that rando's that using Ac as an argument for blockers is irrelevant.

its true he can many club combos but Ac make his club combos decrease significantly. Thats basically what blocker means. Irrelevant is really off if you do think v would bet with club draw

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09-22-2016 , 06:22 PM

p0ker_n00b

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 2,264

Quote:

Originally Posted by keybattle

If you did a thorough analysis to prove it is 'significant' then I would be interested

09-23-2016 , 12:06 AM

#10

bleffo19

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 4,531

wtf is a probe bet? and what program even records stats on "probe bets"?

09-23-2016 , 10:18 AM

#11

IClickButtons

old hand

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 1,613

call turn and call most rivers against this maniac

09-23-2016 , 03:27 PM

#12

dsuds

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2015 Posts: 587

Quote:

Originally Posted by bleffo19

wtf is a probe bet? and what program even records stats on "probe bets"?

When the pfr checks behind and the person oop were to lead the turn, it's considered a 'probe bet'. I use PT4 and they have a stat for turn probes. It's good to know how often someone leads turn when you show weakness on the flop. Knowing this allows you to develop a strategy that plays well against them.

09-25-2016 , 11:32 PM

#13

p0ker_n00b

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 2,264

Quote:

Originally Posted by IClickButtons

call turn and call most rivers against this maniac

If probe stat is accurate enough then I agree, I would call if only for information. Maybe its the type of player that bombs the pot with draws if you show weakness.

09-26-2016 , 03:37 AM

#14

Str1ngerB3ll1988

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 228

depends on V and his bluff / value betting and postflop raising tendencies.

I'd lean towards calling though despite Ad blocker as a huge amount of draws will bluff this river with a high frequency and we do well against his range with respect to pot odds

09-26-2016 , 01:50 PM

#15

Einherjer

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 49

Quote:

Originally Posted by bleffo19

wtf is a probe bet? and what program even records stats on "probe bets"?

Float OOP perhaps?

09-26-2016 , 02:49 PM

#16

BlackFire

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 107

I don't think it should be necessary to risk 6BB on turn and 20BB on river just cause you look high tendence to probe T&R in this spot. You will have a lot of better value spot to bluffcatch him and you have to check read about him looking other spot in game or with 5min of postflop analysis for pots where Villain probes.

09-28-2016 , 04:51 PM

#17

Wages

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 28

combinatoricly (sp?) having the Jd here is a much bigger issue than the Ac and they both suck. This is one of the worst hands to bluff catch with in this spot.

09-28-2016 , 05:00 PM

#18

Wages

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 28

To expand:

block 4 combos each of J8, J7, QJ, KJ = 16 combos
+
Block 10 combos of AcXc

Blocking 26 combo's of a turn probe range is awful regardless of how spewy this guy is vs flops that go x/x

09-28-2016 , 06:10 PM

#19

p0ker_n00b

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 2,264

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wages

To expand:

block 4 combos each of J8, J7, QJ, KJ = 16 combos
+
Block 10 combos of AcXc

Blocking 26 combo's of a turn probe range is awful regardless of how spewy this guy is vs flops that go x/x

perhaps this specific villain's probe stat implies villain will stab whether they have equity or not, therefore blockers to any sort of draws are meaningless.

Maybe it's an ATC sort of thing for 6/7 - the 7th one maybe villain already had showdown value and decided to check.

09-28-2016 , 06:24 PM

#20

troloyolo

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 613

So if villain's vpiping 70ish %, he's got maybe 800 combos of hands in his range on the turn before he bets?

That said, when playing vs a whale, it's always important to accurately account for blockers lol. Perhaps we need a better estimate of how many hands our Ac blocks in his range before we can try to understand what to do in this spot.

He's probed 6/7 times you say? If he's asian, fold, because 8 is a lucky number and he will surely have the goods. Or is it the 8th time he fires? Idk.

09-28-2016 , 06:28 PM

#21

Wages

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 28

Quote:

Originally Posted by p0ker_n00b

Blockers are never meaningless much less over a sample size of 7, and even less over a sample where its 6/7. You're inferring way too much from 6/7 stab. No way we have anywhere close to enough information for 26 combos blocked to be irrelevant and its not debatable.

09-28-2016 , 06:32 PM

#22

Wages

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 28

Quote:

Originally Posted by troloyolo

lol what?

If you're trying to be facetious its a massive fail. You appear to be assuming he only stabs when he has air.

100% this turn is a fold.

09-28-2016 , 06:35 PM

#23

p0ker_n00b

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 2,264

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wages

26 vs what , exactly? While I am mainly playing devils advocate in this thread, my argument earlier is that villain has a tremendous of other combinations that also have equity to draw out, much less the ATC syndrome I actually DO see in some villain's when they 'sense weakness because hero checked'