Seems like a pretty close one. Villain is 26/19, 3bet 11.1, over about 300 hands.
I give him a shoving range of 99, QQ-AA, AQ, KQ, KsJs, Ks10s, Ks9s Js10s, Js9s, 9s8s based on his 3 bet stats and the BTN vs BB dynamic (assuming no air, which is also possible.)
Equilab gives me 41% against his range and I have pot odds of 39%, which is pretty close but still a call. What do you guys think of the range I give villain, the call and generally how I played the hand? Sorry the replayer isn't showing the river for some reason, check the HH below.
Preflop: Hero is BTN with A 5
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, SB folds, BB raises to $5, Hero calls $3.75
Flop: ($10.25) 9 Q 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $6, BB raises to $68.88 and is all-in, Hero calls $39.50 and is all-in
Spoiler:
Results: Turn: ($101.25) 6 (2 players, 2 are all-in) RIver ($101.25) A (2 players, 2 are all-in)
$101.25 pot ($3 rake)
Final Board: 9 Q 2 6 A
BB showed 9 J and won $0.00 (-$50.50 net)
Hero mucked A 5 and won $98.25 ($47.75 net)
I like the hand. NH. We should be stabbing this board quite often, and A5ss is a good candidate & strong enough to play for stacks here
Thanks
In general, how do we decide between firing a big draw IP, or checking back and realising our equity on the flop or turn?
I had a hand tonight where I picked up a nut FD on the turn, fired it, got called, missed the river, fired it and got called by top pair, losing a big pot. Couldn't help thinking I should have checked back turn and bluffed or given up river and just lost a small pot.
It's one of the biggest things I struggle with and there seems to be no general consensus as to the right play.
I think firing flop is unnecessary in this case because
1. This flop will not generate much fold equity for a large majority of his 3bet range
2. The pot is already built. There is no need to fire three streets to get stacks in on the river, since its a 3bet pot, you can check flop and still get stacks in if you hit the flush.
3. If you are jammed on, you are probably behind a large majority of the time, and it is very situational if you meet the equity to call off.
4. If you bet every flush draw in a 3bet pot, this leaves your checkback range extremely exploitable.
Let me know if anyone else has different thoughts on this.
I think firing flop is unnecessary in this case because
1. This flop will not generate much fold equity for a large majority of his 3bet range
3. If you are jammed on, you are probably behind a large majority of the time, and it is very situational if you meet the equity to call off.
4. If you bet every flush draw in a 3bet pot, this leaves your checkback range extremely exploitable.
Let me know if anyone else has different thoughts on this.
I have different thoughts.
1. You're definitely underestimating the amount of give ups he has on this texture, this isn't a fun texture for an AK type hand.
3. How often do we expect to be jammed on? In any case there should be draws tied in with a c/jam range and we'll have correct equity to call off here.
4. I agree occasionally checking back weaker flush draws makes sense, but the nfd should be part of your betting range as we aren't concerned about being raised.