Seems like a pretty close one. Villain is 26/19, 3bet 11.1, over about 300 hands.

I give him a shoving range of 99, QQ-AA, AQ, KQ, KsJs, Ks10s, Ks9s Js10s, Js9s, 9s8s based on his 3 bet stats and the BTN vs BB dynamic (assuming no air, which is also possible.)

Equilab gives me 41% against his range and I have pot odds of 39%, which is pretty close but still a call. What do you guys think of the range I give villain, the call and generally how I played the hand? Sorry the replayer isn't showing the river for some reason, check the HH below.

Well you won so I don't see anything wrong with this.

Weird that you act first when you're button

Well obviously he checked flop to me, IDK why it didn't include that in the HH. Any serious feedback?

I dont think the call is terrible, but I think checking back in position on this flop is better so you can realize your equity more often.

+1

Eh?

I like the hand. NH. We should be stabbing this board quite often, and A5ss is a good candidate & strong enough to play for stacks here

Thanks

In general, how do we decide between firing a big draw IP, or checking back and realising our equity on the flop or turn?

I had a hand tonight where I picked up a nut FD on the turn, fired it, got called, missed the river, fired it and got called by top pair, losing a big pot. Couldn't help thinking I should have checked back turn and bluffed or given up river and just lost a small pot.

It's one of the biggest things I struggle with and there seems to be no general consensus as to the right play.

I think firing flop is unnecessary in this case because
1. This flop will not generate much fold equity for a large majority of his 3bet range
2. The pot is already built. There is no need to fire three streets to get stacks in on the river, since its a 3bet pot, you can check flop and still get stacks in if you hit the flush.
3. If you are jammed on, you are probably behind a large majority of the time, and it is very situational if you meet the equity to call off.
4. If you bet every flush draw in a 3bet pot, this leaves your checkback range extremely exploitable.
Let me know if anyone else has different thoughts on this.

Ignore please.

I have different thoughts.

1. You're definitely underestimating the amount of give ups he has on this texture, this isn't a fun texture for an AK type hand.

3. How often do we expect to be jammed on? In any case there should be draws tied in with a c/jam range and we'll have correct equity to call off here.

4. I agree occasionally checking back weaker flush draws makes sense, but the nfd should be part of your betting range as we aren't concerned about being raised.

nh, wp