Villain is kinda new on this network, he's very loose over 1k hands, like opens 25% UTG, 3bets a lot, coldcalls a lot.

CO is a juicy fish, I'm sorta normal. No dynamic going.

He reps exactly one hand, though admittedly he reps it well. Any hope at all of bluffs or 77?

Poker Stars $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 2590289
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

CO: $133.34
BTN: $314.43
SB: $222.04
BB: $306.56
Hero (UTG): $208.12

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is UTG with 8 8
Hero raises to $6, CO calls $6, 2 folds, BB calls $4

Flop: ($19.00) J Q 7 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: ($19.00) 8 (3 players)
BB bets $15, Hero calls $15, CO folds

River: ($49.00) 4 (2 players)
BB bets $33, Hero raises to $89, BB raises to $285.56 all in, Hero ??? ($100 to call)

Raise/fold seems bad if he's overexploiting the fact that you're capped, never has 77 unless he's a massive whale

Just call river tho

He could have 56s as well. Don't think he is bluffing.

(4 combos) of T9 suited, Assuming he folds some T9o hands I'll just say he has 9 combos of that discounting 3 combos to be conservative. 4 combos of 56s

17 combos that will either jam for value or have us beat and call

He calls with all QJs (3 combos) and all QJo (12 combos) and 77 (3 combos) Those are hands he calls for sure with , If we add in some KQo it makes it an easy raise.

18 combos

So theoretically if he never bluffs we can happily raise fold this hand and there is still a tiny bit of value and even more if he calls with random Qx hands.

But if you think he folds KQ type hands , and only calls with the top if his range QJ and sets there isn't a ton of value and the fact that you can possibly raise fold the best hand I think it's best to just call river.

i think its a relatively comfortable explo raise/fold vs most and river is pretty damn close just because id never discount T9 when he doesnt lead flop but id certainly consider discounting QJ/77

Yeah totally forgot about 56s, cheers.

Yeah 56s should be jamming as well. Definitely a spot we could play it as a raise/explo fold.

not feeling comfortable raise/folding against a relative unknown loose reg here as with him having fairly few nut combos and the relatively good odds he doesn't need to bluff very often for it to become a raise/call

With only $100 behind it is a trivial call. You only need to be correct 1/3 of the time and based upon your analysis of the player, he could be bluffing, spewing or value cutting himself at least that percentage. Hope you didnt fold.

Why is turn flat so trivial? Feels like there should be more discussion on the turn. In my opinion, turn feels like a fairly clear raise.

For a few reasons, main one being I want the fish to do something stupid.

I don't follow. CO checked behind on the flop, the probability of him flipping out and raising the turn seem close to nil and board is wet enough where I am not sure you want it going 3 ways to the river where you're not last to act.

Just to be clear, villain is def not value cutting himself ever when we rep 88/56s

He has 109 and sometimes depends on hes bb calling range he has 56.He can also have jj he will never push QJ and never push 77.So?What do we beat?You are right we beat nothing just fold

He is never bluffing here he knows since we are utg we can easilly have a set of QQ which makes sense since we checked the flop and since we checked flop we dont have AA or KK or a big draw like AKspades cause we would continue betting.He can easily have 109o or 109 of some other suite and not the 109 of spades cause im pretty sure a lag would donk bet that flop most of the time with such a strong hand trying to put the money in as fast as possible.Now on the turn he leads 15 wich also makes sense of that 109 (If he had QJ i thing he would bet a bit more since everyone else shows weakness) he is begging for callers now he has made his straight.On the river since he comes over the top i would just fold cause the only thing im beating is 77 and QJ and some missed draws.

Call is better than raise on the river imo. As played, folding to the river 3bet. Wonder what his 3bet % is. Looks like T9 most of the time from the BB (especially for a player that plays a lot of hands). I'd discount QJ,77 just because of the fact that he checked into a reasonably wet board and we have blockers to Q8/J8, sets QQ,JJ I expect him to reraise pre-flop. I'd think T9 is more likely than 56s here, unless we have some reads on how he plays his draws.