Don't have HH, but villain (BTN) was like 28/22 with 67% BTN open. He did have a big 4bet range, and there was a drooler in the BB, so I opted to flat.

Hero is a 22/17/7% TAG with KQ

Other info on villain: 75% flop cbet (probably less multiway with fish though), also follows through often OTT and bets river more than most.

UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, BTN raises $6, Hero calls $5, BB calls $4

Flop ($18) KT2

Hero checks, BB checks, BTN bets $14, Hero calls, BB calls

Turn ($46) 4

Hero checks, BTN bets $32, Hero calls

River ($110) A

Hero checks, Villain bets $75, Hero calls?


Decent bluffing card for villain if he has whiffed hearts or some gutshot like J9. I block straights, also.

I like your line. A lot of his gutters, heart combos and other bluffs are now beating you, but yes the river is a pretty good bluff card here, helping his range a lot more than it does yours. Stack sizes are rather important here if you remember them. I'm also assuming BB folded on the flop.

Yes, typo. BB (fish) did fold OTF. He had lke 50bb, both me and button 100bb.

I'd say he opens the top 80% of any two suited cards in this spot, so his missed FD combos are about 45. From his POV the A on the river is a really gross card for you, and he presumably will be bluffing it most of the time. To his river bluffing range I suppose you should add some gutters like J9, Q9, hands like J8cc or T6.

You need to be good ~28% of the time. He has like 12 set combos, 18 straight combos, like 40 two pair combos and I'd tend to think he checks back most of his 1 pair hands that beat you.

Seems like a call.

I'd play pre and flop the same as you, probably turn too. But is there any merit on x/r the turn?

I thought about it, but decided not to.

The fact that I know villain valuebets light is bad for us here btw, right?

It is obviously bad, as his light valuebets will be often (if not always) better hands than yours.

I didn't account on my analysis any Ax by the river, but if you think because of your reads that he's likely to be betting every Ax on his range that got to the river, the decision would be much closer, but probably a call still.

Do you have any read on his river sizing? It's surprising how many regs elect to bet between 33% to 60% when valuebetting light. On the other hand, only a few a pretty decent regs valuebet light using a larger sizing.

I like calling the river. Only need to be good 28% of the time and with villain opening 67% on the button he should have some random spaz hands in his range here. I think most of his random one pair hands even Ax junk hands check back the river so he is pretty polarized here between good hands and complete trash or whiffed draws. The fact that there are backdoor clubs make the call even better because he is now barreling with even more flush draws. Seems like bets like 25,50,75,100 or even numbers like that tend to be bluffs more too.

I think we block most of his club draws that don't include the Ac (and I don't really want to call otr if he holds the Ac). Seems unlikely he bets into a fish and another player at the same time with something like 98cc. Given that villain is capable of valuebetting a pair of aces here as opposed to simply repping sets, broadway, aces up, and considering his sizing, it's probably a closer spot than it seems at first glance.

Prefer a lead on the flop.

I think on the river he would bet bigger with straights and sets so I feel like most of his value range will be Axhh, Axcc hands and bluffs. I think a call would be fine considering our hand is really face up and I expect him to fire a very high percentage of the time on that river card with air.

Nh if u call otr.
I first thought it was a fold but after thinking about it i think its a call because V is probably betting all his missed draws on that ace river.

You slow played your hand so he can barrel you with whatever.

How can you fold river when you take this line?

call

While I agree the hand is a call, the logic in this post is flawed. You don't just close your eyes and call down no matter how the board runs out or what your opponent does etc (nor is the reason we haven't shown aggression necessarily as simple as so that we can convince villain to barrel off all his chips in response).

In any case, we need to be good 29% of the time or so to break even on making this call. If we assume villain bets here literally 100% of the time with all his bluffs, you could construct a range for him where your hand is best between 30% and maybe 36ish% give or take. I included hands like 64hh and even KJo (heh) he could show up with by taking this line.

It's a call to be sure but I'll reiterate that it's probably closer than most people in the topic believe. It helps if you're able to believe villain will try to push you off of KQ/KJ (a huge part of your perceived range) in this spot. My philosophy is to err on the side of calling when faced with a river bet I'm undecided on so I would look him up myself, but I'd also expect to lose a fair amount of the time here.

How much credit do you give villain's hand reading ability? Our hand looks pretty much like KQ or KJ, so do you think V is capable of turning a second pair hand like JThh, QThh, or 9Thh into a river bluff here? If so, I like a call a lot.