Quote:
Originally Posted by the real mg0698
If I don't have the Ad i just check river, Considering I have the Ad I figure it's pretty tough for him to ever call river, He has to fold AA AK ,AQ a ton, I don't have a ton of bluffs in this spot, I suppose some TJs hands but I fold those on the turn mostly.
Thoughts? Does he ever check boats or flushes on this river?
I think you need to consider the fact that he might not fold AA,KK 100% of the time, besides the fact that he might check boats a big percentage of time and flushes K
x might check call an overwhelming percentage of time as well.
Also mathematically you need to weigh the possibility of losing half the dead money in a check-chop of AQ vs losing your entire stack (>90% of the time) when called by this villian on the river shove.
I haven't calculated the EV of your check and shove separately, but this certainly appears to be a spot where a check is better than a shove.