NL200- Enough weaker valuehands to call? - Small Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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NL200- Enough weaker valuehands to call?

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12-20-2012 , 06:53 PM

Pyha Karu

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 2,496

29/19 filtered to 3-4 handed. 14 percent 3 bet steal. Betsizing seems like a valuebet pretty much always, so what would you valuebet on the river as villain? Any 10x?

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: $228.56
BB: $204.55
Hero (BTN): $428.54

SB posts SB $1.00, BB posts BB $2.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $3.00) Hero has K

Hero raises to $4.00, SB raises to $18.00, fold, Hero calls $14.00

Flop: ($38.00, 2 players) 7

SB bets $26.00, Hero calls $26.00

Turn: ($90.00, 2 players) 6

SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($90.00, 2 players) 2

SB bets $46.00

12-21-2012 , 05:57 AM

daveh07

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 3,950

not value betting Tx on the river. You simply are rarely ever calling worse. (meaning I only beat 20% of your calling range, so it is a stupid bet) I would value bet JJ+

12-21-2012 , 05:59 AM

Chinned

journeyman

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 218

If it is a valuebet I would say u are behind. But I call this. Your hand looks pretty weak. U checked behind on the turn and this board is so drawy. He could easily have missed his flush draw. I don't think he has many 8's in his range so if he did have showdown value I think he would c/c cause u play pretty Agro.

12-21-2012 , 06:22 AM

daveh07

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 3,950

You need to be good 25% of the time to call this river bet. I do not believe you are ever good 25% of the time with this sizing. I would fold to his river bet.

12-22-2012 , 07:45 AM

rigaholicconfessio

adept

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 770

worst han he has is AT

12-23-2012 , 09:26 PM

tehduper

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 193

It's obvious you cannot call since he has close to 0 bluffs in his range and never valuing worse hands. Consider turning your hand into a bluff.

12-24-2012 , 04:51 PM

ProfesorKaos

banned

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 4,502

would be a cool spot to shove!

12-24-2012 , 06:19 PM

sinnaJ

old hand

Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 1,458

what are you trying to rep with a shove on the river?

12-24-2012 , 06:23 PM

ProfesorKaos

banned

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 4,502

yeah prob not very much lol

12-24-2012 , 07:18 PM

#10

z0mgtiltz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 10,944

Some chance he's bluffing wide enough for you to just call here with the odds you're getting

JJ+ is 21 combos
AQ/AK is 32 combos

He only needs to bluff 1/4 of the time for you to call here.

Only a simple model since he can obv turn up with 2p here as well as 8x some non-0% of the time, but it also means he can have more bluffing combos. He also might not even valuebet as thin as JJ which is 6 combos out of his value range

Don't think shoving is good, 1) wtf are you repping, 2) his range isn't capped and can definitely take some 8x and chk the turn

12-24-2012 , 07:31 PM

#11

tehduper

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 193

Quote:

Originally Posted by z0mgtiltz

Some chance he's bluffing wide enough for you to just call here with the odds you're getting

JJ+ is 21 combos
AQ/AK is 32 combos

He only needs to bluff 1/4 of the time for you to call here.

Only a simple model since he can obv turn up with 2p here as well as 8x some non-0% of the time, but it also means he can have more bluffing combos.

Don't think shoving is good, 1) wtf are you repping, 2) his range isn't capped and can definitely take some 8x and chk the turn

Except he would almost always (95%+) barrel the hands he wants to bluff with on the turn. Pretty hard to be good a quarter of the time on the river I imagine. Folding or raising are the only two legitimate options and I lean toward folding since we did not bet the turn IP which we would with most of our 8x.

12-25-2012 , 05:45 AM

#12

I'mAFrenchDonkey

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 1,589

Bet turn/shove river
Turning top pair into a bluff is funLOLZ.

You're almost never gonna win the pot river after checking the turn whether he has the best hand or not.
If he has air he can often rep a value bet, and if he has an overpair or a set he can bet for value with confidence.

12-25-2012 , 03:23 PM

#13

rigaholicconfessio

adept

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 770

JJ+

12-25-2012 , 05:34 PM

#14

Izanagi

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 2,336

Quote:

Originally Posted by z0mgtiltz

True, but I think his sizing is pretty telling of a thin value bet.

12-26-2012 , 07:38 PM

#15

Hurts_Doesnt_It?

centurion

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 142

Preflop call is terrible vs a 14% range, that 3b sizing, and no specific dynamic. I see no situation where you could play this hand profitably given those conditions.

As played villain is never EVER vbetting worse but is definitely bluffing a non 0% amount. Clear fold.

12-27-2012 , 02:13 AM

#16

l2o07

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 287

tricky spot indeed! I think i am indifferent to calling or folding river. I think what matters most is what you think of the player at the time otr.

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