Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $1,050.00 (VPIP: 41.48, PFR: 29.63, 3Bet Preflop: 6.52, Hands: 140)
SB: $990.00 (VPIP: 24.22, PFR: 17.19, 3Bet Preflop: 6.00, Hands: 133)
Hero (BB): $2,219.59
CO: $1,015.00 (VPIP: 35.91, PFR: 26.94, 3Bet Preflop: 15.13, Hands: 304)

SB posts SB $5.00, Hero posts BB $10.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $15.00) Hero has 6 T

CO raises to $30.00, fold, fold, Hero raises to $110.00, CO calls $80.00

Flop: ($225.00, 2 players) 9 6 A
Hero bets $70.00, CO calls $70.00

Turn: ($365.00, 2 players) Q
Hero checks, CO bets $168.59, Hero calls $168.59

River: ($702.18, 2 players) Q
Hero checks, CO bets $666.41 and is all-in, fold


River card obv better for Hero's range. This combo blocks 66 and unblocks the bdfd, but still unsure if we need to defend 6x otr?



turn is a defend vs. this size



river is gto fold, we bluffcatch some 9x, and most of our AJ.


V is looking very active over 300 hands, 36/27/15, but couldn't remember at the time how many of these hands may have been shorthanded.
Overall RFI 35%, CO 12/38, BTN 15/28, fold to 3b (overall) 6/15.

T6s is probably outside of the hands I'd 3bet SB vs. a CO who has folded to 6 out of 15 3bets so far. And I probably would have folded turn.

So, I dunno. But I think I see what you're thinking. CO is unlikely to bet the turn with QX. You should have more Q's. He shouldn't be so likely to shove river with AX, even AK is iffy. Only 4 combos of 66 and 99. AQ should be a decent part of his range though, especially if he doesn't 4bet too much. Q9s is possible for him also; I can't tell if you included that in his range.

I think I'd just fold.

It's BBvCO so it's a bit more polarized pre, I def wouldn't 3b this from SB. We can't fold turn with a pair on draw heavy board vs. 45%.



CO range pre.
Yeah AK isn't in this range pre at all, which is unrealistic. If we give him 25% AKo it's still a check for him otr in the sim.

Will look at this in greater detail but I don't ever 3bet this combo BB v CO. While a polar 3bet strat is Def viable I prefer to use the SCs that play > post. As played u will have some AK and a lot of suited Qx to call.

I don't think we need to defend any 6x here otr...and T6 seems like a particularly bad combo (blocking JT.) 98s seems like the bot of bluff catching range but depends on how many Ax combos go into ur 3bet range.

I don't understand turn call and river fold. Not super stoked about BB 3-bet.

Against decent aggressive opponents, how often are you able to c/c turn and get to showdown if they are betting this turn? What was the EV of you betting turn in your piosimmy?

I'm triple barreling AK on most runouts here, but at least cbetting turn w/it. Not sure how many Qx we have out of BB, I guess I'd give myself like 25% of Q8s-KQs or something like that? It works out to like 2 combos. But yeah I guess we don't "have to" call 6x.

this combo unblocks flop bdfd though...86s/76s are worse bluffcatchers I think 'cause of his 87s

idk, they have to give up blank rivers sometimes, and we improve sometimes. If they bluff too much otr we get to call more.

Hero betting turn?

You're using general population tendencies at this point though since you said you weren't sure how many hands you had on him at this point (and it's not much period). I think unless you know he's bluffing too many rivers, you're just guessing how wide he'll be OOP which tends to be losing poker imho.

Maybe I'm just too tired or slow, but it looks like betting is way more profitable correct?

I think the take away here on this hand would be why are you 3-betting an active player OOP w/ this hand? If it was because of boredom, you've learned something. If it was because you saw something specific you thought you could exploit, you didn't explain that in this post. Just food for thought.

Reading the HH and ignoring your sims Idk why this turn card would slow us down or otherwise encourage villain to bluff wider. Also what bluffs are you betting ott given the previous action?

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Pre is fine imo vs wide opener, he should be folding a lot of hands esp offsuit hands that have a ton of equity vs us like Q10o, A8o, A9o, J10o. Though I really wouldn't like it if he were one of those regs that open crazy wide and defend super wide vs 3-bets and folds like 35-50% vs 3-bets. Not too common though.

You can definitely take the lower variance route and just flat pre, but I think 3-betting pre yields slightly higher EV

Flop and turn seem pretty std. I think we should call river here, but it's definitely super marginal. We block 66, dont block bdfd, and straight draws OTF and J10s/KJs with bdfd misses. Our range looks super weak like maybe KK/1010/JJ, we shouldnt have too many Qx either.

Which 9x do you bluff catch?? Think 106hh is going to be way better here to call than say 98s because we dont block CO's 98s, and better than 109s that blocks BDFD.

I think it can be a mix with some 6x (I didn't save the sim sadly) but we have to think about our whole range, if we bet a ton of hands <top pair ott then he gets to pile turns with merged value and a lot of bluffs and destroy us. Not sure you can just look at the EVs and conclude one option is better with these in between hands? Also a comparison between the EVs of cbetting turn and x/cing turn fails to account for when the turn goes x/x and we realize equity/improve right? The comparison should be between EV of cbetting and checking. I confess to not fully understanding this though.

What kind of range do you 3bet BBvCO? As a default I tend to 3bet suited hands that are on the borderline of being too weak to flat, like T6s, 95s, 64s, that kind of thing. Although I've been trying to go more merged/balanced lately and 3bet more QJs, JTs type stuff.

Yeah I thought so too that 6x>9x but the sim shows some T9s and 97s defending river.

I don't understand your last paragraph. If villain is taking this line with 98s we shouldn't be happy bluff catching with a 6 because we loose.

In regards to everyone thinking this is a good bluff catch if our range actually is pretty weak her when we check then villain is also entitled to value bet thinly as well?

I think ultimately the real question is does this hand have more showdown value than potential ex showdown value and I think personally ex showdown value wins here as a turn bluff/give up on this runout or turn/river barrel especially when it sounds like our triple barrel value range could be quite large including all AK.

Ya was confused by 98s mention as well, I think he meant 87s.

Can explain ex showdown value? New term for me. And yeah definitely possible.

WRT V being able to go thinner for value when Hero range weaker, yes generally but maybe not in this specific spot. While globally our range is weak, we do make some trips otr, so he can't go too crazy with AT/AJ for value. I believe the sim showed him x/b AJ otr actually.

78s definitely makes more sense. I guess I didn't think too much about it before asking haha.

Exshowdown value is a term introduced in the mathematics of poker. It's meant to represent value that is not captured by winning at showdown (i.e. when you consider hot/cold equity in the current pot).

Examples of ex showdown value include money won when bluffing and additional bets when you pull ahead on later streets. In this example you could win the pot outright by making better hands fold (say 9x, 88, whatever is in villain's range) and you could potentially pull ahead to the best hand with trip sixes and gain additional bets vs AJ or whatever. The tricky part would be deciding a bet size that balances all of these factors with a strategy for your overall range.

I was more focused on looking at the turn when talking about betting thinner since that's where his strategy starts. Perhaps villain just bets because you checked but then he may also be making mistakes otf calling too wide for the opportunity to bet.

I agree villain can't vb this river super thin unless for some reason he thinks we're very capped or there is a large range imbalance in villain's favor for some reason.


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Is this hand on Ignition or BOL? If Ignition, I hope you know what I'm going to say. If you're trying to worry about balancing your range... mmm, and if it's BOL you only have 300 hands. Maybe I'm the only one taking completely exploitable lines until I get 1k+ hands on my opponents (or there's specific dynamics happening early that I note about).

If your simmy is working correctly, it should be accounting for when turn goes x/x no?

To a 3x range I just fold this hand because the data I've seen I don't think people are playing it profitable enough in 3-bet pots, and flatting is worse. Say we account for a -10% equity expectation being OOP, you've got 24-27% equity in that hand. In a 3-bet pot OOP againt a decent reg, I don't think you're making that profitable enough unless they are folding too much pre. I'm sure you're checking your hands though and making sure they are under -100bbs.