Villain is a loose reg, 33/20 with only 3% 3bet, aggr factor 1/2/8 respectively, 45% fold to cbet flop&turn. Actually winning slightly over 2k hands despite his stats. No relevant notes, history or dynamics.


Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($107)
BB ($99.51)
UTG ($67.35)
Hero ($100)
BTN ($116)

Dealt to Hero K K

fold, Hero raises to $3, fold, SB calls $2.50, fold

FLOP ($7) 8 J Q

SB checks, Hero bets $5, SB calls $5

TURN ($17) 8 J Q A

SB checks, Hero checks

RIVER ($17) 8 J Q A 3

SB bets $7.25, [color=red]Hero raises to $27.77


Agree? Disagree? We have doubleblockers for the nut straight, also blocking some flushes with the K

The way the hand has played out, I dont thing blockers are very relevant as i think guys are always either bet/calling or bet/folding when they lead with that sizing. Prob bet/calling more often the better they are because I guess you do actually block some worse ands that they could be bluffing with.

lol

don't you think frequencies of their x/folding and x/calling are influenced by us having blockers?

I doubt he ever bluffs here, so calling river is out of question. If we can't call, it's because villain has TP or better > 80% of the time. I think the target-range of our bluff is much too strong in general. Bad bluff imo.

I kinda think we should be betting the turn here. As played, raising looks good ya.

Our blockers would be much more relevant if the Ah was on the board. Considering he's this loose I'd say he has a ton of Axhh in his range and we're only really blocking KThh & KQhh maybe K9hh.

I'm pretty sure you get looked up here a ton since any flush you have other than Qxhh will be betting the turn.

Your turn line makes no sense with any draw you are reppin on the river

Fold

would you bet KQhh, AThh hands on turn? or do you check them behind?

your bluff doesnt have to work all that often and i guess, you can repp some hands and he might not be a herocaller with a hand like KQ [yeah, yeah... you block it for the most part, i know...]or so, but overall im not a fan of it. If he has a serious sizing-tell, then it could be pretty good though

Problem here is that you should barrel basically every hand you are trying to rep. If villain realises this you are in trouble, however he seems bad/straightforward so it might be okay.

I like the play otr it looks like he has a weak A or many hands that he will b/f with. V is bad so he wont notice u rep nothing.

I would fire $9 ott tho to get value from draws and worse pairs.

I really like betting small on the turn, not so sure about "he will just fold his Ax" his wtsd%(in combination w his wwsf%, it's not relevant to his line here, but it influences the wtsd%) is kind of important(I realise how inacurate that stat is, but still)

Really dislike bluffing (yes) turn, only hand we beat that calls is QK, and we block the s*it outta that hand, we also miss out on free nut outs every time we get c/r'd.

Bet turn, check back river, imo.

I'd bet turn here. Not sure it's true that "only hand we beat that calls is QK" (on the turn). Considering he's a 33/20 from the blinds, there are a ton of flush draws and pair + draw (QT/Q9/JT/J9/98/T8) that could call.

As played I fold river though. He has a ton of flushes in his range which he's never folding, and as others have said, most hands you're trying to rep on river probably barrel turn.

I like the raise on river but I'd make it like $32.

OP's hand blocks some straight and flush possibilities, so it's logical for us assume that we are actually looking at more FE in our hole cards. This would be like insider trading fraud except it's legal in poker.

And the villain tank folds, is my guess. I think $32 makes it more convincing though.