Hello!

i only had about 100 hands on villain, and no particular reads or history. his stats were about 23/16/6.6% 3bet with a f3b of 100 (3/3).


what range are u putting him on?
how do we proceed on this river?



Entraction No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Entraction Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($155.95)
Hero (BB) ($111.83)
UTG ($35)
MP ($331.10)
CO ($125.91)
Button ($124.42)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6, 8
2 folds, CO bets $3, 2 folds, Hero raises $9, CO calls $7

Flop: ($20.50) 9, 6, 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $13.50, CO calls $13.50

Turn: ($47.50) K (2 players)
Hero bets $32.50, CO calls $32.50

River: ($112.50) 5 (2 players)
Hero with $56 left

he doesnt really have a 7 in his range and i dont really know, if he would call your big turnbet with TT/JJ, so his range is more weighted towards flushdraws. dont think, there is value in shoving, but could be wrong... looks like a c/f spot to me

shove (what else?)

More pre, more on flop, turn is ok but you could do more there too. If your sizing was right you get all in on the turn and river doesn't matter, just leave it to poker gods.

As played you c/f, noone but a maniac would bluff that board when you check. He doesn't have air, either some SD value like TT-JJ, 77, T9s he played passively or a draw that made it. He's never turning the sd value hands into bluffs.

i'd c/f here and its not close, i don't really see any hands which villian can have which he turns into a bluff. Ppl at smaller stakes generally don't get too out of line in these spots and will be happy to get a free showdown with the "weaker" hands they have in there range, This is assuming your able to barrell plenty of flops/turns on boards like this with bluffs as well... otherwise whats the word for an even quicker "snap" check/fold

make it a little bigger preflop

He could have stuff like TT, 77, T9s, TJs, 78s, 67s, clubs. Most people would raise AA-JJ, NFD and a set on the flop. I wouldn't give an unknown credit for turning a made hand into bluff, so I would c/f river. Shoving is pretty bad if you think about it.

Wow, if we check here, it is so obvious that we are check-folding ... I'd for sure shove here with TT-QQ, T9s, KTs etc. and turn those hands into a bluff in villains shoes.

It also should be clear that we don't need >50% equity vs. his calling range to make a river shove the best play.

can villian show up with JJ/QQ given preflop action? in villians shoes i'd be more likely to just flat the 3b preflop with AA/KK than J's or Q's.

on the basis that villian can show up with hands like the above and potentially turn T9s/KTs etc into bluffs isn't c/calling river going to be better? regardless of how often we need to be called for it to be a profitable shove we're not getting called by worse, as we are never bluffing here, especially as all draws that we could of had have completed. With that said because we're not getting called by worse when we shove, its esentially a river bluff (folding out any potential hands like T9s/KTs) if we bet, so by checking we are giving hands that we beat a chance to bluff the river. = making more money by c/calling than when we shove river

If we had a read that he turns worse into bluffs, then we should of course check-call here. The problem is, that we don't have that read, so check-calling can be a huge mistake. If villain never bluffs, the EV of check-calling is -$56. He has to bluff more than 25% to make check-calling +EV.

Check-folding has an EV of P(cb)*$112.5 where P(cb) is the probability that villain checks behind and we win the pot. If he never checks behind with worse, the EV of check-folding is zero. Otherwise the EV of check-folding is above zero.

Shoving has a positive EV as long as he has us beat less then 66% of the time. I doubt he has set/straight/flush here more then 66% of the time.

EV-wise, shoving is for sure +EV. Check-folding always has an EV of equal to or more then zero and check-calling can have negative or positive EV, dependent on villains (unknown) tendencies.


I'd now shove since I know for sure that shoving can't be much of a mistake, whereas both, check-folding and especially check-calling can be huge mistakes.

i see what your saying and your math looks correct. however it isn't a spot were you have to worry about GTO plays imo, It's a spot were to make the most money you have to be exploitable (check the river), being unexploitable (shoving river) is theoretically correct, but it isn't making us any $ if we take this line

Do you even know what GTO means?

What I just said has nothing to do with GTO*. I just said that as long as we don't know villains tendencies, we can't say which option is best. The only thing we can be sure about is, that shoving is +EV. All other option can be -EV, +EV or zero EV.

If SPR would be different on the river, I'd also be more inclined to just check-fold here.


Also think about our own range: We bet the turn with 100% of our range (the king it the perfect barreling-card for us). How many flushes or 7x do we actually have in our range? I wouln'd be too surprised if villain calls our shove prettly light here.


*(GTO means, that we play in a way so that villain theoretically can't exploit us. This is not what I want to do in this spot)

lol yes i know what gto means.

this completely goes against what you said earlier, ... if checking makes it "so obvious" that we are c/folding, then we should c/c more often because you will then turn ALL of your weaker hands in your range into a bluff... which is how we make money.

if i thought that villian could potentially turn hands which we beat into bluffs then i would c/c, as betting river folds all of them out (i think we can agree on that?)

with that said and my first post in this thread, i still prefer c/f given reads/no history was listed in the orginal post

I think there is a tiny bit of value on the river I shove

shove >> c/c >>>>>>>>>> c/f


(assuming most taggish regs would bluffjam 1p hands when checked to)

I check call. For villain it is more profitable to shove here weak hands as a bluff, but he never find call to your rvr bet