€0.50/€1 No Limit Holdem
4 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
CO (€68.20) 68bb
Hero (BTN) (€160.52) 161bb
SB (€126.80) 127bb
BB (€141.80) 142bb

21/17, 700h
3bet 8
Cbets (80,73(11),50(4))
Cbets in 3bpot (57(7),100(4),...)
agr (4.1,9,1.7), afq (51,55,29)
wtsd,w$sd,wwsf = (21,50,51)

Pot=stack OTR.
Push or check?

Pre-Flop: (€1.50, 4 players) Hero is BTN Q K
1 fold, Hero raises to €2, SB raises to €8, 1 fold, Hero calls €6

Flop: 10 Q 3 (€16.50, 2 players)
SB bets €9, Hero calls €9

Turn: 6 (€34.50, 2 players)
SB bets €25, Hero calls €25

River: 3 (€84.50, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Final Pot: €84.50

looks good

Depending on how your river range is constructed in this spot (mainly on how many BD you have) you should consider shoving some KQ combos here

definitely shipping, so much missed draws

first instinct is to shove, since he is probably barreling any better hands here and we are almost always good once he checks the river.

On second thought though, the guy has WTSD of only 21 over an ok'ish sample, so i am really not sure if he will call you with worse here ever, when your perceived shoving range is mostly busted draws and he knows that you know that he knows this (if that makes sense somehow)

That WTSD is frightening.

Ehhhh it's close my first instict was easy bet. But given villain stats and we are 125bbs I think checking is ok. I think at 100bbs I jam it in because he will call more often.

without history/dynamics I don't see worser hands that c/c a jam but you def can bet smallish ~ 25% to incdue or get a hero call from A high/2nd pairs.

Just a note: people with WTSD's this low don't call with A high hands or double barrel mid pair...

I'm not sure why everything has to be so black or white, as in 1) shove 2) check.

There are lots of options between a check and a shove imo.

Most likely his actual wtsd isn't 21%.

No notes after 700 hands? Or just no relevant ones?

Clearly you're gonna jam into this guy with a missed draw. I know you're exploiting him, but isn't jamming missed draws here and not the ~best hand you can have pretty terrible long term? He can just check/call every time the board bricks and win loads.

I would shove this river. I feel if Villain had a value hand that could beat QK he would be jamming river when all the draws missed and he could easily rep a missed draw. While villain might just end up c/f here, I still think its possible you end up getting looked up by A 10 qj q9 sort of hand. Also is good to have hands like this in our possible shoving range when every draw missed so we are less polarized in these spots.

nh

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KQ isn't really close to the top of our range here tbh. Depending on your pre/flop/turn calling ranges you maybe "should" jam some KQ combos here but saying he can just c/c every time and own us if we don't jam KQ doesn't seem right when we can have AQ,QTs,TT and even QQ+

Not sure what I like best here, checking, jamming or even like 25% potting it. This guy looks really aggro on the flop and turn, and this could come down to what he's been showing down after barreling. Think his low wtsd might be a result of his possible tendency to bet instead of getting to showdown as well, doesn't have to mean he doesn't call down light

I think KQ should be roughly the top of our check-back range here. We are going to show up with busted spades a fair amount but KQ doesn't stack up so well against the preflop range that gets here and can then call a bet - if he has a value hand here its gonna be the KQ+ range he's checking to induce with mostly, I'm not expecting him to barrel QJ and AT this way much and might fold them anyway, as well as busted draws he will x/f too. His WTSD is also too low to excpect any hero calls.

tl;dr: check.