opponent is 20/16 with aggression stats of 4.8/2.8/1.6 and cbet flop/turn7river of 66% / 63% / 33% respectively. he is on the cally side (fold to cbet 33%) and instantly attacks weakness (bet in position 65% and BET OOP turn 52% ), arginal player on NL100.

is my line credible on the river? assuming i do not want to raise the flop (for balance purposes) can i raise the turn here? how should be bet sizing on the river (if i should bet at all?). what is his range?

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($80)
BB ($47.42)
UTG ($107)
UTG+1 ($92)
Hero ($115)
BTN ($107)

Dealt to Hero A Q

UTG raises to $3, fold, Hero calls $3, fold, fold, BB calls $2

FLOP ($9.50) T 7 9

BB checks, UTG bets $7, Hero calls $7, BB folds

TURN ($23.50) T 7 9 4

UTG bets $17.50, Hero calls $17.50

RIVER ($58.50) T 7 9 4 K

UTG checks, Hero bets $88.43 (AI)

I think his range is something like JJ. QQ is possible but your hand blocks it somewhat. KK/AA are also possible to some extent.

I don't like the shove on river.

If I have JJ I'm gonna call you it just looks bluffy to me and you are repping like Kx/FD but it just looks like you had a draw and missed.

how many hands is this sample?

well QJ got there, dunno how often he thinks you flat with that hand vs UTG open. whats his EP open? looks tight. not a good card to barrel, i would put him on JJ+, maybe QJs/JTs. Dont know how many 8x they open from UTG given the PRF of %16.

The problem with repping QJ is that I think he has QQ/JJ here pretty often and he can remove those combos fairly often plus the fact that QJ flatting on CO could be unlikely. That's one of the reasons I would make the call with JJ.

combat carl would you concede this pot? he needs to fold only 88 / (88 + 58) ~ 60% of the time for this move to be right.

If you had him on air or weak range then you only need to bet like 3/5 - 3/4 on river to take it down. So the fact that you went AI on river makes me think that you have him on a decent hand like OP that I mentioned.

In that case, AI is the bet to take it down but it's tough to represent sets here I think because of SD/FD present and the fact that you just kept calling. So you are only repping KxFD most likely but why should TP shove? TP now beats QQ/JJ on that board so river VB should be reasonable.

I'm a leveling monkey so may be I shouldn't be the one to comment in this spot but I'd call with JJ here like I said.

I like making VB bluff on river perhaps against a different opponent but I'd hate to pick a spot like this one where you actually do have the villain on strong value range.

Do we really need to overbet jam the river? It looks more bluffy and I feel a PSB will have the same effect.

With villains stats i'm assuming his UTG open% is fairly tight. On this river, the main bulk of our calling range that value bets when checked to got there (KQ, KJ, QJ).

I like a PSB bet here because we have a value hand very often with this line from this position on this run out. Hoping to fold out QQ, JJ, 88 (and maybe A10 if villain even raises this hand UTG).

Whats his UTG open%?

I like raising the flop. We're not going to have many draws here given he opened UTG. Given the flops texture his tight range and our very heavily weighted pocketpair range preflop the raise looks super strong.

As played I'm checking back. I'm having a hard time seeing worse fold.
*Pairs below a ten are unlikely to bet flop and many don't open UTG.
*Strong Tx and JJ/QQ can be talked into calling small bets seeing as the flush draw bricked
*Strong Tx and JJ/QQ will snap big bets as we only rep KsQs/KsJs perhaps sets although many would expect a raise by now on this board.

You are getting snapped on this river. You prolly never JQ here,and FD bricked.

I think flop call is fine,but turn looks like a fold

Given your positions you don't have as many combos of draws in his eyes. Knowing how he views you is the biggest part of this hand. By the river because if your image is clean he is c/f here so often. The only hands he is c/c would be JT/AT unless he felt like bluff catching a two pair hand (Only really see T9 here).

Overbetting the pot is less effective unless you do that with your entire range which I guess you would ( How do you play KTs, T9s, 77 in this spot).

Bet is fine just no need to go big.

combat carl was right and he called with JJ on the river.

my thought process was that I could represent some QJ (2 combos) , KTs (2combos) and sometimes I shove KQ/AK here here so this might look credible. On a second note combot carls point is valid that with all draws missed and the call line i took strong hands are somehow negligible and my bluff range is large. i am not balanced here.

That's funny because I kept saying JJ in my three comments but yeah it just felt like JJ to me.

We wanna narrow down the range but not to 6 combos of JJ. I think the proper range guesstimate should be something like ATs, QQ, JJ, or 88 if we thought the villain could have a hand that might fold on that K river.

It's definitely a tough spot to pull off a bluff given the action on flop an turn. And it's not like he never has a set or AA here at the same time.

I think you need a very good image to pull this off. Someone who knows how to take a FOS line to overbet(for instance, shove) thin for value with a river-ed TP type of hand vs the perceived range of something like QQ/JJ where you know that the villain is in bluff catching mode. Perhaps someone like Zigmund could pull this off but obviously on higher stakes.

repping sets only(+ very few qjs combos) when you basically never have it is weird

raise flop all day.

Do you expect him to ever b/f here? If called what turns would you bluff?