BTN was a completely straightforward quite nitty ABC player: 19/16. Button steal=50%, fold to resteal=71%, 4bet 10%, Fcbet in 3bet pot 50%(4 incidences) over 1400 hands.

Hard to describe SB: perhaps "monkey with a keyboard" is best. He'd been completely erratic; overbetting cbets, huge raises on villains' cbets with 3rd pair etc. He'd already dropped 2 buy-ins, and I was prepared to call him all the way with top pair. In the SB he was calling 50% of all hands vs steal.

My thoughts:
1. Pre: I 3bet here to eliminate BTN from pot and be HU ip with SB. Clearly didn't work here! Without listing all the combos, his call puts him on ~all broadways minus his 4betting range (which will be reduced here because of the monkey in the SB)

2. Flop: hits his range well, giving all kinds of pairs, 2P, and gut-shots+overs. Perhaps I should give up here? At the time I thought I'm not x/f'ing here, so a bet is better than checking and allowing him a free card

3. Turn: with only one card to come I want a cheap SD

4. River: still wanting cheap showdown, and all draws have missed. I need ~30% to call, which I think I do have IF he bets his missed gut-shots+overs here. However I still find it hard to call here against this particular villain

In hindsight I think maybe x/f otf is best. Thoughts?

I think your squeeze is OK. I'm certainly gonna consider it, SB being a fish.

I like flatting better. It's a little bit of too good to 3bet type of situation, imo.

I'd rather 3bet premiums/bluffs than KJo or KTs.

It flops and plays well postflop and you have position on the fish.

As played, flop cbet is fine. I'd fire for sure. Turn is check, River is fold. I'm thinking AJo may be?

I don't personally like 3betting pre here. I mean, I can see why you'd do it, and I don't think it's bad per se, just I would prefer flatting. You dominate a lot of the hands BTN is stealing with (JT, QJ, etc), you have position on the fish, and your hand wouldn't get you into too many tricky spots postflop.

Once you 3bet preflop, flop play...I don't know. For one, I would discount his fold to cbet in 3bet pot stat because it's only 4 hands. I think a cbet seems pretty standard, but at same time, what worse hands call / what better hands fold? On the other hand, I think cbetting makes the play easier OOP. So I'm 50/50, if you have 1400 hands on him, I'd think you'd have a decent sense of how he'd play postflop, so I'm not against checking and calling/folding depending on whether you think he'd bet light on the flop (with his draws, for example).

On the river, as you said, it depends on whether he's betting his busted draws. But after he calls your 3bet preflop, I don't think there are that many draws in his range. Maybe KT/AT/AhTh, AK (but AK 4bets a bunch). I don't think a 19/16 who folds 71% to resteals is calling 98s kind of hands here. So I'm leaning towards folding, but I think it's closeish, like 65/35.

WP imo now fold river

Rep JJ, check-shove river (or fold)

I like pre. If he is passive enough u can try checking it down, if not, wp
Fold is fine, c/s is better, I would expect him to either fold very often or call a decent amount(maybe 20% of players( w this stats, idk)

I think pre is good. Would like to hear opinions on Combatcarls point of it being too good of a spot for a 3 bet?? can there really be too good of a spot? if BTN is a thinking reg, and knowing this is a good spot to 3bet, are we not going to get 4bet quite a bit and have to fold a hand that had decent equity against BTN and SB ranges.
Agree that c/shove is better than call, but im interested to hear what people think villian checks back turn with, when he bets river, is it specifically AJ that checks back turn and bets river?

Against 50% BTN Steal, KJo does well postflop, dominates some of his range like, QJ, TJ, 9J, KT, K9, - so in a sense, we are slow rolling him a little bit by flatting preflop. He might even think "this guy would 3bet KJo preflop so I'll call this down" and so on.

So 3betting preflop means we are now making a value/3bet but when he flats it, now we are not doing so well against 50% BTN steal that decides to flat 3Bet, meaning something like AJo.

3betting preflop is way better than flatting and it´s not even close!!!

flop CB is fine, decent amount of hands he can float with and some merit to protect and just take down the pot. Problem is, his range is pretty strong for calling pre imo. He can easily / should slowplay AA-QQ pre to keep the fish in. Though given his check back on the turn, it´s not that relevant here. So c/c flop with the intention of c/f turn against such a nitty player is probably also fine.

River is probably a bit close... Given many people c/shove turns as pre 3better nowadays he might be inclined to check back turn with some draws, but probably only the ones that are too weak to call against a shove and too good to maybe have to fold them (basically small FD´s and openenders, which are given his preflop stats not many combos. also not saying he should be checking back those hands but it´s possible). Besides that he can check back hands like Jx or QTs/KQ. I´d usually expect him to bet any float (with a gutshot for example) and any valuehand AQ+. I´d expect him to bet river with AJ, QTs, KQ and the missed draws like KTs/T9s. Don´t expect him to ever valuebet worse on the river, might be valuebetting KJs though. I think he bets a bit smaller on the river with the thin valuebets (like 1/2pot) with hands like AJ/KJ, but obviously can´t be sure about that. Given we don´t know for sure if he has T9s and KTs in his preflop, because he´s so nitty and folding so much to 3bets, and that he might bet those hands on the turn, we have to discount them a bit. So it becomes really close and I lean a bit towards folding....

I think BTN has a wider river range than most of you because you're slightly deep and he expects SB to come along about always preflop. So with that in mind I would look him up here, but certainly not happy about it.

Also 3-betting pre is awesome since we're rather in a 3-bet pot dominating a fishy player's range than in a single raised pot dominating a reg's.

That's how I roll

I like your pre-flop 3bet, especially because you kept it small. That way SB can call with an ever wider range and same goes for BTN who (knowing that the fish is going to call allot of the time) now can call with pocketpairs en maby even some suited connectors.

The flop seems like a weird situation, because you cannot really get value for worse except draws en certainly cannot fold out better hands. KTs and T9s and maby AKs or possible draws, but that does not weigh up against the AQ,AJ and set combo's he could have. Still I prefer betting, just because you don't want him to turn a underpair or sth like that into a bluff and you can still get some value from the, although limited, amount of draws.

Turn check is great, now snapfold the river. The draws bricked, but next to the fact there are much more valuecombo's he could have decided to make a delayed bet with on the river, why would he check behind the turn? His line doesn't make sense for a draw. He's probably making a thin v-bet with AJ or something similar.

What's wrong with c/cing flop?

Who checks JJ on this turn with the lead?

Disagreed.