I have been struggling with the most profitable way to play this hand, any opinions are much appreciated.

Villain (755h): 25/20, 17(70h) 3B vs BTN, 7/10 cB in 3B pot

My flat pre is ok I think, although open to discussion

FLOP
OK, I flop a good draw so I thought I should use my equity to apply some pressure and get the $$$
Thing is, even though he seems to lean toward cBetting too much, I think he will not bluff at this with total air, since it smashes my continuing range.
So I think he will be cBet bluffing w/ equity, maybe planning to double barrel to fold out my floats (cB bluff/give up turn on this flop doesn't make much sense to me) - gutshots, BDFD's w/ As

If he cBets too much air, a raise at any point would be profitable I think. Following analysis presupposes the above theory (that he cBets w/ equity)

Considering various plans OTF

Raise flop/give up
> get him off of weak draws (GS/BDFD)
> he might even bet Tx thinking I will float a lot, which he should fold to a raise


Raise flop/shove turn
> when he calls I think he has too much Kx that he is not folding blank Turns, maybe he folds Qxss, Jxss (I expect Axss to get it in flop) but he can also fold these OTF, since he can Be dead against my NFD
> I am so much inclined towards draws when I raise flop (only valuehands KT, TT, I don't flat 22 pre here)
> so maybe shoving turn if called flop is not so good? what about floating?


Float flop/bet turn vs check
> I think he may have too much Kx that he will c/c, and maybe c/c blank rivers. His above mentioned bluffing range should continue on blanks to throw me off floats, Tx etc
> so ch back turn and get free card?

Float/raise vs cB turn
> a good sized raise should be enough to throw him off most of his draws



On THIS turn
> I think this is a bad turn to continue my plan on, since it improves his semibluffing range, so should I just fold here?

Basically I figured I put in the minimum required to fold out his draws. After he shoved on me, I was getting priced in lol so pretty bad plan there.

What would your plan be OTF? What about this turn?

Thank You

I think you can float here, your outs also improve his hands some % of the time and there are def hands he bets once and gives up turn if it doesnt improve his eq since he prob wont fire 3 barrels without any.

I would like your turn play more with QsJc or something, def folding to his shove after you raise since you'll be drawing dead some % since he might have a spade in his hand or even a made flush at this point.

When he bets turn I think his range is too strong to continue here with an OESD without a spade. Your range should consist of a lot of Tx Kx with a spade that's not going to fold for him to bet this turn weak.

Call flop, fold turn to the bet.

It's just a really basic call. Turn is an absolute disaster.

Yeah this is pretty basic call flop/fold turn line.

board: KsTs2h3s
Hand Equity Wins Ties
QdJd 13.34% 94 35
AsQs, AsJs, 8s9s, As4s, As5s, As3s, AsK, KK, TT, KhTh, KcTc, AsQh, AsJh, QsJh 86.66% 707 35

Also, you should probably fold to the shove. We need 15% equity but as shown here probably only have 13% equity against his range.

Lol at turn.

Turn fold > Turn call > Turn Jam > Turn raise/call imo.

Yer fold turn, up to then is fine though. If you really don't want to fold to this guy you can call turn and jam a lot when checked to but clearly folding turn is best.