Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players -


BTN: $282.26
SB: $72.17
Hero (BB): $100.00
UTG: $58.66
MP: $142.35
CO: $165.17

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with 3 3
2 folds, CO raises to $3, 1 fold, SB calls $2.50, Hero calls $2

Flop: ($9.00) 3 4 A (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: ($9.00) T (3 players)
SB bets $4, Hero raises to $13, CO raises to $28, SB calls $24, Hero folds

CO was 21/18 reg, Fcbet 76%, raise Fcbet 12% (to give an idea), agg frequencies by street 40%, 35%, 32%, 2k hands

SB was kind of semifish running 35/19, fold to cbet 48%, wtsd 27%, w$sd 55%, 400 hands

yes, CO is basically only repping TT and maybe weirdly played AA, but thats about it - havent seen anyone bluffing in a spot like this (with solid stats).
im not too afraid about SBs coldcall, but his range seems strong nevertheless - 2pairs+, combodraws.

in reality, this should be an easy fold, but is actually quite difficult to do in the moment

Its weird why wouldn't he cbet TT for value vs fish. However it is more unlikely he c back AT. So yeah fold in theory

I think you can fold this. He'll have TT all the time.

I'd fold pretty quickly.

You'd have to take that from my cold dead hands. Never folding.

Are we completely discounting the dynamic of the fish leading for less than 1/2 pot on that turn?

If I'm that reg, I'm thinking that since I haven't repped any strength on the flop it's very possible that you'd put the fish on a weak bluff/draw and decide that he (the reg) is no threat and that it's a perfect spot to power-poker the fish out of the pot.

Which means that it's a great spot for the reg to cold 3b you. When you raise the fish you're very polarized, so the reg doesn't need to 3b you big, just enough to get you off of your pure bluffs, which could be why he 3b to barely more than 2x.

If I'm you in this spot, I'm tank-calling to make him think that I'm slowplaying a monster and letting him bluff his money off (the tanking part is important).

If he still bets the river big, I might give up on my set because I'd expect him at that point to give up on his bluffs most of the time, but given the above dynamic I described, there's no way I'm folding on the turn to what is either 3 combos of TT or a complete bluff based on that 3 way dynamic, especially getting these odds.
I think the chance that a winning reg would try to bluff you off in that specific spot is higher than the odds you're getting on a call.

It's one of those spots in which you don't mind kind of turning your hand over by giving away with your tanking that you're considering slowplaying a monster, because he shouldn't try to get you to fold on the river a set or any legitimate hand that would raise that turn for value, so by making your hand more transparent you're actually making his own play more transparent.


EDIT: Another thing to consider is that given how polarized you are on the turn, whereas if he's bluffing he doesn't have to raise much at all, if he was raising for value he would've probably raised bigger since he likely expects you to go broke with any legitimate raising made hand and to fold all the rest.

In other words, VS a polarized range, if you're pure bluffing bet small and if you're raising for value bet big since you're either getting called/stacking off or folding everything out.

Its a pretty tough fold in game. What was CO's cbet stat? If its like 50% then he could still have AT.

Land of the Free - My issue with your reasoning is we need to be hoping that villain is good enough and aggro enough to try to get both a fish and another reg to fold because he realizes both players could be weakish which at 50/1 is pretty tough - but obv not impossible. I also think that his raise sizing could be for complete value - hoping to keep the fish in and build the pot versus you. There can be quite a few hands/draws that fish could get attached too here.

If his cbet stat is 70%ish then his most likely holding by a long way is TT - to take his line.

I use the Bet River stat in my HUD so if I was in an non-believing mood I might call the turn and act accordingly on the river. A decent portion of the deck might slow him down on the river too so you won't always get stacked if it is set over set.

^

I know what you mean, I'm all for making big folds in the right circumstances and I know very well that the fact it's "only 3 combos of value hands!" doesn't even matter if that's all villain is making that play with.

I guess it'd really help to know how quickly villain 3b OP. The line of reasoning I described would take at least a while to think through and consider, so I'd be much more likely to call if villain had tanked a bit before 3betting.

If he 3b quickly after OP's raise, it makes the bluff scenario extremely unlikely/basically impossible, so timing in this spot could definitely be the differenciating factor between calling and folding.

I could be looking into this too hard, but I've made similar plays before with success vs the right regs (aggro enough, love to Iso/double barrel fish off of obvious drawing 1/2 pot bets, etc...) and the advantage with this spot is that contrary to the turn, we can pretty much play the river perfectly, especially once the fish calls.

You are toast. I am the payoff king and even I can recognize a spot where you are crushed.

erm.. check first post .. ?

Don't think villain puts us on a polarized range once we raise the fish lol.
However i'm getting too nice of odds to fold when u could potentially be up against 2p fds etc. ( not sayin thats super likely though)