LIVE $1/$2 NL

Eff. Stack was mine at $300 (150BB). V covers

Villain: We have some antagonistic history. He is a TAGish Reg who is not afraid to 3-bet in position - especially vs me. I'd say he is a good player and is certainly not straight forward.

Hero: Active and aggressive. I just showed down Q8o which I raised from CO. So my image is likely LAG ish at this point.

Pre-flop: I raise to $6 (my standard raise) from UTG+1 with JJ. One guy calls (this guy is a bit of a station) and V raises to $22 from HJ. I call. Other guys folds.

POT= $53
FLOP: 892

I check. V bets $30. I call.
POT= $113

Turn: 4
I check. V bets $75. I call.

POT= $263
River: J

Hero???

Hero check/call

Are we planning on calling a shove? If so, why not shove ourselves?

If we bet, he will likely call with: AA, KK, QQ, 88,99,22,44 which is 30 hands.
He will also call with QT which is 16 hands.

If we check, there is a decent chance he checks behind here with a lot of his value hands no? He may continue his bluff but I've shown no indication I am folding. The pot is more than I have so I am not sure he believes I will fold or not.

So is a shove best or are we afraid of QT that much?

come on

?? Can you elaborate on your thoughts a bit? Disagreeing is great, but I posted in hopes of getting some thoughts and feedback.

Do you think a slightly less than pot size shove is bad or just not as optimal as a check/ call? Why?

Tagish reg 3bets an utg+1 raise and a caller. You really think he has QTo here? I wouldn't even give him QTs.

Also Tagish reg doubling is pretty strong so it's likely he tripples.

Your range is completely transparent on a river shove here and that is a big problem.

Agree. So you jam or check call?

Given I expect a bet and shoving makes no sense for the rest of my range I'm checking.

I may be an ultra nit but that river J would scare the hell out of me if I'm holding especially QQ, and also KK/AA.

I would most definitely check the river if I hold QQ. KK/AA I would most likely check as well. 88 and 99 and definitely in set range for hero to slow play on this dry board. 1010 is most likely never going to call that river to a river shove. Seriously. come on.

You cant get value from 1010. So that leaves QQ. Are we seriously going to bet this river with KK/AA? I am definitely not , not for 150BB's deep. Especially if I think hero is a thinking player , and showing up with Q8 wouldn't make me think one way or the other, that's a standard open from CO for me as well and my stats are 22/19.

But let's be honest, not all 'regs' and 'tags' at this level are going to put that type of thought into their AA/KK, they just want to keep betting and GII no matter what.

I think donking river for 1/2 pot or so is fine bc you'll get called by the overpairs more often than not. You also risk a thinking TAG from checking the river behind afraid of slow played sets or spiked river set, as I think any TAG should be on this board.

I think it's too hopeful to think TAG will bluff shove river with pure air here. I would rather lock in that river value by donking the river, he might just think you have QQ and just snap it off instead of shoving over top.

Also, any hand like QJ or AJ that squeezed and double barreled now has a river pair and would probably just check, but you can get value from them MAYBE if you just half pot it. Probably not going to get a call, but probably not going to get that bet either.

Actually I'm leaning more towards about 40% pot on river or 38%'ish like 115. It might look like a blocker bet of some type and like I said, might even get called by random rivered pairs from a wide squeeze range.

Similar to my analysis you are definitely a thinking player and will continue to do well I think.

However, there is absolutely not reason you should ever consider one iota about villain having Q10 here. It is not relative to the situation or any serious analysis.

Also, 22, like Q10 is just not relative in any way.

Also, as to your OP, be very careful about labeling 'table images' of yourself based off what you WANT the villains to see you as. That can be a huge mistake. For all you know, TAG did not even see your Q8o.

Also, before you begin to assume that there sparks between you and another player, such as light 3 betting or playing back at eachother you need a pretty big sample for this or extremely obvious hand history that shows he does some things much differently versus you than against any other player.

Don't get into the habit of leveling yourself is what I mean. It's a mistake that I used to make and it would cost me money.

I'm confused. When we check our range will be at its widest. So you think that villain's won't bet when our range is at its widest but will call a bet when it is for sure mostly 88,99,and JJ?

When we check, our range is NOWHERE wide. That is completely untrue. This means we are calling down with like 66 here or calling the turn with 910s. Or floating the turn OOP with AK or something nonsensical.

By the river, check calling these 2 strong barrels on this dry board usually only means one thing. QQ or a set. And like I said 1010 you can't get value from.

Am I the only nit folding the turn?

Check river as played now.

No you aren't, I would consider this as well until I have a sample that shows villain can barrel off AK this hard.

I didn't say "wide" I said it was at it's widest - meaning we have more hands in our range than just 99,88, and JJ while if we bet that's like 90% of our range or more.

Check river. Not close.

To villain having QT being brought up as frequently as it was:

wait were you thinking about check folding?

Poker noob the ranges you come with always seem to blow my mind

Then please tell me what villain can get value from if they shove river with QQ/KK/AA and then match those combos to slow played sets and 2 pairs.

Let's say villain holds QQ, what is he going to get value from by betting the river?

KK? AA?

Or are you hoping they bluff shove total air bc hero checks river?

My point as well. We do have more hands in that range, not MANY hands but a few.

But please address my actual argument. What VALUE hand is going to call the river with that called flop and turn? What hand could hero have that villain can get value from that isn't ahead of his KK/AA?

Like I mentioned before, it seems to me the only thing we are hoping for here is for villain to bluff shove AK or random air.

So you have a villain that is such an expert hand reader that he'll check back this river because he can't get value from anything when your range is at its widest but he'll call your river bet even though he'll be able to tell your range is 90%-100% set when you bet?

Something doesn't compute with that logic specifically expert hand reader that checks back AA/KK but also makes a bad call when you bet out of nowhere.

I'm saying your bet suggestion doesn't make any sense given the reasoning you've provided.

I think check folding turn is good because for one aggro or not if he's a reg like he stated then this board doesn't get bet enough with air. And for him to triple barrel on a board that Completes the strongest parts of your range lol I can't fold riv. But I fold turn gf cookie for you

Wow you have a lot to say about a guy's range? Are you saying his range is wide or widest? Because Imo his range at its widest is pretty damn narrow right here as well. People who are regs don't have to be expert to know a check on the river with AA or KK is best play in villain spot. The player has to say is what can I get to call me and he knows the answer to his question. Only hands that beat him.

Ppl @ live 1/2 tend to be showdown monkeys so I would expect him to check back AA/KK pretty often. And this would be a pretty spewy spot to run a triple as a bluff in live. Also since your image is laggy and you guys have some history I think he levels himself into a call with QQ+ more often than he value bets QQ+ himself.