In a hand before this, MP (villain in this hand) opened, I 3-bet w/ JJ, MP called (with QQ). Flop was T high, check/check. Turn brought a straight draw, MP bet 2/3 pot, I called. River brought 4 to a straight on board (irrelevant for our hand ranges). River went check / check. Was pretty sure he had QQ and maybe even KK. Then this hand...

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD & Database

NL Holdem $1(BB)

BTN: 119.39 BB (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 11.36, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 44)
SB: 85.75 BB (VPIP: 13.95, PFR: 11.63, 3Bet Preflop: 11.76, Hands: 44)
BB: 115.98 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 9)
UTG: 173.11 BB (VPIP: 45.45, PFR: 15.91, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 44)
UTG+1: 99.88 BB (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 3.70, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 28)
MP: 110.89 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 13.64, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 42)
Hero (MP+1): 153.28 BB
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 13.95, PFR: 9.30, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 44)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9 9

fold, fold, MP raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (12.5 BB, 4 players) K 9 Q
BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets 9.25 BB, fold, fold, MP calls 9.25 BB

Turn: (31 BB, 2 players) 7
MP checks, Hero bets 20.5 BB, MP raises to 49 BB, fold

MP wins 96.9 BB

This is the absolute top of your range since you dont have KK/QQ/J10s here, but it's played fine. Probably bet turn a little bigger.

Yeah, near the top. I think JTs is def in my range from the HJ.

Imo JTs a little loose of a call given positions and how nitty OR is. OTB it's okay since we get squeezed less and have ultimate position, but in either position I'd 3-bet or fold. For my strategy 6-max, I tend not to have much of a cold-calling range for many reasons. Helps my red line a ton, and I think it's boosted my WR esp from the SB

This is a really weird spot to me. Why would villain check KK or QQ on the flop? How many combos of JT are really in his range? If he checks those hands does he also check the flop with KQ. Does he bluff, ever? I find that you have to answer each of these questions in a way that is not in your favor to find a fold and I just cannot see that being the case.

When he checks the flop, and then the turn he has already played this hand terribly if he has a strong holding. This is a very standard bet bet bet spot until the board gets too scary to bet for value anymore (like a T on the turn or most clubs). So if he is bad enough to play a value hand wrong, maybe he is bad enough to play a bluff wrong too. Or maybe Aces wrong. Either way this is not the line of a skilled player, and I am not folding one of my strongest holdings to said line. I'd just jam right then and there.

Yeah, I completely agree about his play. It's horrible to check KQ/JT/KK/QQ for villain. Not the highest EV line at all. But what range is he checking, and then making essentially a turn CR with? AcJc? AcTc? If he's bad enough to play a value line that way, then it's a decent conclusion to think he'd play a bluff line poorly as well EXCEPT for my previous hand I posted about him. I think he's a combo of nitty and bad. And nitty and bad I don't think is turning his hand into a bluff here.

But I hear what you're saying. No one likes folding sets, and I avoid it at all costs.

I just got the hand right now, so I'll post results (whew):

*** TURN *** [Kc 9s Qc] 7♦
UTG+2 : Checks
UTG+3 [ME] : Bets $20.50
UTG+2 : Raises $49 to $49
UTG+3 [ME] : Folds
UTG+2 : Return uncalled portion of bet $28.50
UTG+2 : Does not show [Jd Td] (Straight)
UTG+2 : Hand result $68.40
UTG : Seat sit out
*** SUMMARY ***
Total Pot($72)
Board [Kc 9s Qc 7d ]
Seat+1: Dealer Folded on the FLOP
Seat+2: Small Blind Folded before the FLOP
Seat+3: Big Blind Folded on the FLOP
Seat+4: UTG Folded before the FLOP
Seat+6: UTG+1 Folded before the FLOP
Seat+7: UTG+2 $68.40 [Does not show]
Seat+8: UTG+3 Folded on the TURN
Seat+9: UTG+4 Folded before the FLOP

Not to be results oriented, but it's always good to get confirmation on your reads in spots where you wouldn't normally fold.

But you're getting 3.5 to 1 with about 50 big blinds left. If he'll never fold the river (which I'm guessing he really wouldn't with 50 big blinds left in stacks and 129 in the pot, and you are in position), then it is like 5.2 to 1. 10 outs to draw to a full house or quads.

True, but I don't have those odds against his range. I'm putting him on KK/QQ/JT. If I knew he had the straight, of course I'm calling.

It's Friday, I know... we're all tired. I get it.

Yeah, if he has KK/QQ we're drawing to one out. There are more combos of KK/QQ, and given his nit stats he might not even open J10s

I apologize for what is likely a question that has been covered in the past but I couldn't find the answer after some searching.

Given that you folded and there was not a showdown, how is it that you have the ability to see his hole cards?

This!

the hand was most likely played on an anonymous site like ignition. they release full hand histories 24 hrs after theyve been played.