Encountered this hand today, how often do you think I should call river and do we expect to win a lot here?

PokerStars - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 196 BB
SB: 134.28 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 28.14, PFR: 21.56, 3Bet Preflop: 15.79, Hands: 174)
UTG: 335.9 BB
MP: 162.82 BB (VPIP: 43.48, PFR: 30.43, 3Bet Preflop: 19.05, Hands: 47)
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 26.17, PFR: 21.88, 3Bet Preflop: 6.86, Hands: 265)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 7 7

fold, MP raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) 5 7 A
MP bets 4.1 BB, Hero raises to 12.52 BB, MP calls 8.42 BB

Turn: (32.54 BB, 2 players) 3
MP checks, Hero bets 26.5 BB, MP calls 26.5 BB

River: (85.54 BB, 2 players) 4
MP bets 55.44 BB, Hero calls 55.44 BB

MP shows 9 A (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 44%, Flop 3%, Turn 0%)
Hero shows 7 7 (Three of a Kind, Sevens)
(Pre 56%, Flop 97%, Turn 100%)
Hero wins 192.42 BB

Stop showing results of your hands plz. It skews your replies. Would help you out if you just edited your post now.

Good point. I cant seem to find the edit button on my original post though, weird.

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It was clearly his plan to bluff on a third heart hitting the board. Man, tough call. Good on you for making it. Whenever I make calls in spots like this, they have the damn flush.

can we 100% fold the river vs. fish and call a chunk of the time vs. regs ? on that sizing at least ( 65% )

I think people don't bluff nearly enough there to make that call, vs some aggrotards and bluffy regs, it's fine, but vs the usual nit/tag/loose passive/fish, it's always a straight/flush here, sometimes you catch a random 2-pair from a fish which can't see the 1-to-straight and is thinking about valuebetting.

All of that.

I do love villain's optimism with making this bluff without a heart in his hand. He's so determined to call down to bluff yet has no logic to do so besides, "i play teh pokerz and put u in tuff decizionz even though you're moar likely to cawl me since the and str8 came".

Interesting spot from villains range perspective. It makes sense for villains to lead his flush otr (I think he has more flushes in general, and all the Ahxh which we probably flat flop) so the question is what hands to bluff. It seems difficult to find a natural bluff since he calls turn oop which usually is some sdv

You should call the river with about 60% of your range.

Agree with this, but have a question: Does the bet sizing here skew our decision toward a call? It's a tad less than 2/3 pot bet, we're getting a bit better than 2.5-1 to call. On a stone bluff, wouldn't most fish just shove here, as well as nits if they made their heart draw? The bet sizing on the river makes me suspicious, but I don't play online poker.

Less because it's almost impossible for villain to have air.

I'd call this river pretty much always here.
in "GTO" it would probably be optimal to call something like 40-50% of hands.
Also, I think our blockers are pretty good.

I would usually fold river, but guy seems like a spazz so idk.

Would suggest not showing results.

How are our blockers pretty good?

I don't think I'm folding here often.

I hate when the 1 liner straight comes out and then everyone goes "oh you lose to straights and flushes here...yadda yadda". Like, what straights does he have here? does he call you light with 66 OTF? does he have A6 of hearts here specifically? Or, he'd have to have 46s specifically to smash the straight OTT in which he flatted with the second flush draw, and he'd have to call with 76 or 56 on both streets after you are clearly resembling strength. Just not likely enough in my opinion.

AX of hearts is never folding and I don't know your opponent enough to say he'd call with KX of hearts or some flush draws that don't have added equity either. Your bet sizing on the turn is pretty big, so you're repping two pairs and sets, as your flush draws, if they kept barreling, would bet smaller on the turn to be able to keep your bluffs cheaper. Even if that wasn't the case, you have a lot of flush+straight draws in your range so his lead is really weird to me just because that card should help you more then it helps him defending from the BB and barreling as big as you did OTT, you won't be checking back a lot OTR.

Nice call man. Keep it up.

We block random 67 hands + don't block any bluffs, which is better than any of our other bluffcatchers (except AhX ofc).

He might not open 76o, that leaves 76cc which he might check flop with. Irrelevant imo.

I think there's is merit to call with 77 instead of AX with a because we don't know if villain is polarized

I'm just saying that all of our other bluffcatchers have worse blockers (AK, AQ, A5, A7), because they are blocking potential Ax Bluffs.

If we think opponent is only bluffing with Ah blockers, calling with AhX would have 0% equity ofc. But in reality it's prob the other way around, he's only value betting nut flush, and bluffing too wide imo.

Also, based on his stats, he may be opening 67o, and playing it this exact way.

Why would villain bluff with Ax? Should hero call with Ax?

I think, with the limited information you had, it's a fold.

To justify the call here, villain needs to be bluffing more than 28% of the time. In my opinion, there are far more value hands in his range that play this line than bluffing hands.

In fact, given his actual hand, it appears that he floated the turn believing he was behind, or else there would be no reason for him to bluff when the scare card hits river (his river sizing does look more like a bluff than a block bet). What I'm saying is, when deciding on villain's range while facing his river bet, it's difficult to even include his actual hand.

In order to construct a range for villain that consists of ~28% bluffs or more, it appears that we have to believe that he made a very good read on the flop or turn, decided that you did not have hearts, and could get you to fold to a river bet if a heart did come. Even then, if he believed he could only take the pot when a heart came on the river, your turn bet did not give him the correct odds to call.

A range composed of more than 72% value-betting hands is much easier to imagine, so I think it's a fold.

Sorry for the double post, but the fact that he did not GII on the flop removes a lot of flush draws from his range. His flop play seems more like something you'd do with Ax, with the Ace being a heart. Maybe it should be a call.