50nl bovada, villain bu 54/34/4 / 50 hands
stacks $50 eff

hero bb QJ
folds around to villain, villain raises $1.50, sb folds, hero calls

flop ($3.25) A5Q
hero checks, button bets $1.75, hero calls

turn ($6.75)K
hero checks, button bets $4, hero calls

river (14.75) 6
hero checks, villain bets $6.95, hero raises to $18.24


butchered hand, or okay bluff spot? I could have folded pre, could have folded every single street tbh, for whatever reason I decided I could have the best hand on the flop, plenty of equity if I don't, didn't think I'd get anything better to fold to a x/r and my hand is face up if I do and hit a club.

x/c on turn was almost always bad, I called thinking at the time that I could get paid off on a T or a club, making the turn call profitable (very questionable/optimistic).

river is a blank, I had every intention to x/fold, but villains bet just looked too juicy. Thought he may be betting AJ, AT, maybe even a weak 2 pair that I could get to fold here? Is that too optimistic?

Folding pre or OTF are you serious?! Flop and turn are standard. Turn I would consider c/r because we can get better hands to fold and it's going to be hard to get paid if we do hit OTR. River sizing for bluff-raise is too small.

i guess i should have edited out folding pre/flop. That was stupid on my part, I think the biggest questions are folding turn/ riv

It's great that you've ranged him, but i'm struggling to think what you could ever have in this spot? His small sizing weights him towards value hands i.e. ones that are good enough to triple barrel, not a weak range, hence i think it's wrong to think we can get him to fold much otr.

You're still being stupid. Look at odds and do some math for what to do ott. The only question in this hand is river which isn't even a question.

okay, it is decided river is bad. the hands i was trying to rep were slow played JT or mayyyybe AQ, 55, which is 31 combos, aq 55 questionable/bad. at the time I thought I could credibly rep those and get AJ, Kx, MAYBE kings up to fold, i think everyone agrees this is too optimistic.

Only other option is raising flop, slowing down unimproved, raising or folding turn then, and obviously x/f riv as played. any input on raising flop and figuring out plans from there, vs raising or x/folding turn?

You don't 3 bet AQ here preflop? Why would you call all of your JT combos on the flop?

I think it's optimistic to expect Kx and AJ to bet 3 streets here. Plus you block those hands in villain's range.

Your range is capped pretty much every street here while your opponent's is not. Imho it seems bad to want to raise anywhere.

so you're set against this whole check calling thing? check/calling is best. As my other post said, actually look at the odds of your hands hitting and do some damn math. If you don't know the math, I'd be happy to explain or maybe somebody else would get to it before me. If you do know how to do the math, stop being lazy. It's not that hard. Folding is absolutely ****ing ludicrous. Something tells me this is completely results oriented though and if you hit, you'd never question if you should call or not. Sometimes you miss a draw, it happens.

I'm not set on anything, I'm asking for an opinion on the most profitable line. I've done the math, getting 2.7:1 ott, calling is okay assuming I can make at least enough to make up for the $2.80 or so in equity extra needed from the turn call. Was just asking for what your opinion is on best line in our spot. Seems x/c is best, but was initially wondering if anyone would have considered a different line. I have no problem with x/c line, and throwing out the atrocious x/r on riv

I think you need to work on your odds calculation. You have direct pot odds on the turn even not counting river J as outs.

do you mind explaining if my logic is flawed?

you are getting 2.7 to 1, so you need > 27% pot equity.

you have 14 outs ( 9 clubs, 3 non club 10s, 2 queens). 14/48 = 29%