vilain 28/17 reg steal 41%, 52% cb, 38% cb ott. 0% cb-fold to raise ott

I 3bet this some too. Decent spot to bluff? Anyone raise ott?



SB: $51.19 (102.4 bb)
Hero (BB): $67.77 (135.5 bb)
CO: $52.60 (105.2 bb)
BTN: $26.83 (53.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J A
2 folds, SB raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1

Flop: ($3) Q 3 K (2 players)
SB bets $2.25, Hero calls $2.25

Turn: ($7.50) 9 (2 players)
SB bets $5, Hero calls $5

River: ($17.50) 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $15.50, SB calls $15.50

Bvb i wouldn't turn this hand into a bluff, he is going to be check calling a ton, also don't see a difference from 11ish to your 15, if your gonna bet big, gotta go bigger. 38 cbet on the turn is pretty low for any reg. I would say raising the turn is ok, but would wait for a different dynamic than bvb, where players are gonna be more sticky.

BvB players bet bet check-call way more than other positions, I wouldn't bluff it either, just x back, you have some showdown value also.

I pretty much agree with previous 2 posts. Theres too many hands that are check/calling the riv here, esp bvb, and you have a small amount of showdown value. I would just call turn and check back riv.

As far as raising turn tho, its not horrible. But, I think just calling is better since u have the nut flush draw + gutshot + a possibly good ace. Then u can likely get sum huge value on river if u hit it

Well if we are not gonna bluff this, what bluffs we have on the river?

I like it. Calling seems much better than raising turn and river seems like a mandatory bluff, we get there with so many value hands.

I would raise the turn and barrel the river. It would be so hard for villain to call this bluff. We would definitely fold out better hands with this bluff. Our hand has a Jack for a straight blocker and the Ac for a strong flush blocker making our bluff much more believable as a strong hand.
I don't believe we can count on our AJ for showdown value here most of the time.

If he's a thinking reg than I like call turn and pot or overbet river. If he's barrelling 2 streets there, and checking the river, he's going to be calling a good amount of the time. So you need to fold out all of his 1 pair hands and 2 pair hands some of the time.

What are you trying to fold out?

Specifically what hand takes this line that is checking the river to fold to a bet?

So preflop blind on blind he obviously has a wide range, I definitely like a 3bet here with AJo in position, folding to a 4bet or flatting if you think V is capable of 4betting light SB v BB. I personally don't like flatting a hand like this preflop as it makes it hard to play almost any situation post flop as V should really be raising any two cards in an unopened pot.

Decent flop for our hand, but this is why I would elect to 3 bet pre. He can have any piece of this board or none at all and we have no idea. He can have pairs, two pairs, weird two pairs and all sets. He CAN have draws but its less likely as we have blockers to AT, JT, J9 and the nut flush draw. He also has all air that cbets this flop as he may think you're 3betting any strong K or Q preflop. When V bets we can never fold obviously, we have a gutshot to the nuts and the backdoor nutflush draw. Flatting here is ok if we have a plan on bad run outs for our hand. Are we going to check fold all bad turns? Again I would be more aggressive on the flop as it narrows V's range (he probably folds like 95% of his air unless he wants to bluff certain runouts), gives us more options on bad run outs and we have a chance to just take down the pot right here. IMO, decent equity but little/no showdown value is probably the perfect time to bluff raise. If we raise here to around 6 dollars and V calls, we can barrel all club turns because we're blocking the nuts. He would have to fold JT and all Queens really if that were to happen. We can check back bad turns for our hand or if we pick up showdown value on the turn as we have position (any Ace or Jack really). Definitely think a flop raise is good here only downside is we kind of have to fold to a flop 3 bet or 4 bet jam depending on his sizing.

Turn comes 9c, which completes both JT and the flush. Decent enough card for our hand, we've picked up the nutflush draw with one to come. When V bets 2/3 pot on this turn he's pretty much saying he has a straight or better. A strong queen is too weak to value bet this turn and too strong to turn into a bluff outright. He can also have a lot of semi bluffs with any KcX hand. They probably aren't betting 2 pair here for value unless its with the Kc. As played I don't like raising the turn as we've picked up so much equity and it would suck to face a 3bet jam, though it does have merit as we probably force him to fold pairs and backdoor flush draws. Folding seems horrible when we float the flop and turn the nut flush draw. As played I think flatting is the best option, folding to a bet on all rivers that are bricks.

River comes 8d, brick city. Changes nothing except makes Q8 possible 2 pair I guess? That doesn't really change much anyway. V checks and personally unless you think he's got more weak showdown value you can make him fold than anything else I would just check behind knowing you're probably dead. What missed draws can he have here? JcX that picked up a gut shot and the flush draw on the turn and decided to bet. With this line that's really the only hand we're beating that makes sense. Even then he would probably fire off that last bluff hoping to fold out pairs, two pairs and even sets (of which we don't have very many of any as we didn't 3 bet pre). When Villain checks it's obvious that he has a hand better than Ace high, the question is, what can we make him fold out with a bet on the river. I'm going to start off by saying if you're going to bluff here, do it a lot smaller or a lot bigger. If he's folding to 15 into 17, he'll probably fold to 11. You've just saved yourself 4 dollars. Like I said on the turn, he probably has a straight or better and is checking to bluff catch or is happy with you checking back when he has a straight or weak flush. As played V can have all 2 pairs and sets except for 8s realistically, but what of that does he fold? The way villain has played this hand I don't really see him checking the river to fold to a bet, pretty much all of his range is check calling you here. Weak pairs check the turn, strong two pairs and sets maybe bet and check the river if called, straight bets the turn for value and clearly all flushes do too. Maybe I'm wrong and he heroed you with a Queen but I would be surprised for V to show up with anything less than K9 here. Also if you are trying to fold out hands like K9, betting this big doesn't look like a flush trying to get called, it looks like you're trying to make him fold. He may actually fold 2 pair to a smaller bet as it looks so much more like a flush wanting to be called. As played I just give up and check back. Also sometimes win against random 56 he double barreled and gave up on the river.

TL;DR, V shows too much strength betting the turn to give up bluffing him out of the pot on the river.

Can I know what V called with?

Are you saying we should use different sizings for value bets and bluffs? Lol

I meant V shows too much strength with his line that he would fold to a bet on the river.
You can make the argument that we should bet with this hand if nothing else than to balance our range which is a good point. But with this action I just can't see it getting through too often

Kinda sleep deprived right now so what I said probably wasn't clear. If you're talking about my comments on the river action I was actually trying to say the opposite haha. I was saying that this bet looks more like a bluff BECAUSE we're probably not going to bet almost pot trying to get called with the nut flush here (though I guess in theory because we are bluffing so big we can value bet this amount). Depends on OPs game but generally I would value bet around 11-12 dollars with the nut flush here to get called by straights and strong 2 pairs who want to hero so I'm an advocate for a smaller bluff size which has the added bonus of losing less money when we get called on the river.

Would just 3b pre for value, flop & turn are fine, river dont bluff against a weak-tight nit BvB