villain 20/16/af 2.4/cr 8/3b 6/wwsf 41/river agg 19/call open bb 11 - 2.4k hands


What do you think? i was wondering if we can get away from our hand on the flop vs the nearly 4x raise?

On the turn im pretty confused by the gay/block bet...it could possibly be trying to induce....or it could possibly be a draw trying to get a cheap turn...or even a small overpair trying to showdown but i think this is the least likely scenario considering i doubt hes raising many overpairs here.


what do you think?





DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

SB: $100.50
BB: $112.92
UTG: $112.23
CO: $89.92
Hero (BTN): $100.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BTN with A A
2 folds, Hero raises to $2.62, 1 fold, BB calls $1.62

Flop: ($5.74) 6 7 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4.30, BB raises to $16, Hero calls $11.70

Turn: ($37.74) 3 (2 players)
BB bets $10.00, Hero calls $10

River: ($57.74) 4 (2 players)
BB bets $20.00, Hero calls $20

Interesting. I hate it when people put tiny bets out, confuses the hell out of me. I think I play it like you.

The flop raise maybe because you perceived button range would miss this flop if it contained most Broadway cards. Torn between 3bet getting it in and flatting. Hope someone else chimes in about this.

The turn is strange. Seems weird to make a big raise on the flop and then bet the turn small if he hit/had it on the flop. Id probs call this bet as he is probably folding all air and some draws to a raise and calling with better hands + bigger draws.

River were getting 3.5 to 1, so id call and punch the wall when he flips over 87o.

I think with 2400 hands on the villain, you should be using your reads to assess this spot.

What is "call open bb 11" stat? Does it mean call in BB facing BTN steal?

In these spots I like to do the math, making some simple assumptions, and then afterwards challenge these assumptions based on specific reads, and thus perhaps adapt my conclusion.

So just using his stats without adapting them yet, he's calling with 11% of his range, and x/raising 8% which gives a nominal range of 0.88% which is around 9 card combinations (0.88%*1081). That accounts for 66 (3 combos), 77 (1 combo), 89cc (1 combo) and ~4 combos where he either has a crushed PP or overs+FD.

Against such a range you're about 50% otf. Based on this I'd call otf, call the small bet ott - I wouldn't want to raise since if you're behind you're crushed, and if you're ahead he only has one street to improve, plus you're ip. By his bet sizing ott I'd be putting him more in the drawing-type-hand, but he might also be trying to keep you in with a FD/OP hand. The river bet is really strange and comes down to a read - you have 2400 hands with villain. Have you seen him peddle the nuts like this before, or have you seen him bluff small like this with busted draws?

But to return to the flop decision, with 2400 hands on villain, you should have an idea of how he plays his monsters, and how he plays mediumPPs/FDs on a dry flop like this. Can we put 66,77 in his range or would he always check these back? Is he the type to x/r to protect medium PPs in these situation, or as a semi-bluff with overs+FDs? That would allow you to refine your view of villain's range otf, and then the decision should become a bit clearer.

Gotta call. This is going to provide useful information whatever the outcome.

i like your analysis a lot but I feel like he can show up with a few 7x combos here vs a 2.5x open, hard to say which ones he does and doesn't 3bet tho. Somewhere maybe worth about 2-3 combos between what he doesn't 3bet of a7s 78s 76s 79s?

Swimrun +1!

my 2c.

check/raise 8% means he does it only with nuts (WWSF seems to confirm that), you got Aspade that blockers some of his FD. Moreover, I don't think he's going to play draws that way.

But...
he could play PP lilke that, 88 or 99 (and maybe some slowplayed QQ, KK)

You're getting a good price to look him up: call and take note

I'd raise/call the turn. It looks like a draw trying to buy a cheap card, doesn't make sense for him to bet so little with 7x when your range is draws + overpairs.

I also doubt he's doing that to induce because most people are pretty happy calling with an overpair or a draw in that spot.

Yep, you're absolutely right: don't know how I missed those! So villain has enough combos in his range to have hero completely crushed otf if he's the type to only x/r this board as a sign of strength. Therefore hero needs to decide otf which camp villain is in.