Bottom Set on Wet Board

[gooderthnu]

100NL, readless villain.

Hero UTG with 8h8s. Raises 3x. Folds all the way around to SB who calls.

Flop ($7): 8d9dJd
SB bets $4. Hero ???

Turn: Ks
SB donks again. Hero???

This is more of a hypothetical question (i.e. in a vacuum). Flop smashes villain's range and our perceived range. Villain will likely donk with OESD, FD, and any other decent draws. He'll likely also be stabbing at the pot with a large part of his range as a bluff. Therefore, I think a raise on the flop is the proper play. Villain will continue with all draws and nutted/second nuts hands. We take pot from all bluffs and one pair/ maybe even 2pair hands, and weak draws. Assuming villain 4bet shoves us on flop, I think we have to fold.

If villain calls and Ks comes, it again improves both of our ranges. Therefore if villain donks again, I think we have to fold here, as even if the K doesn't improve villains hand, it will certainly have improved a large part of our perceived range, and I think villain will only be donking the turn with a strait or flush. I'm aware donking ranges are very player specific, but what are your guys' thoughts on villains hand ranges in this spot?

Is my thought process in this hand correct?

[Canadian_Kidxxx]

I agree with your thoughts on the flop but not as much on the turn.

On a board like this a lot of people are going to c/c the flop with all kinds of draws and made pairs. It is possible (though maybe unlikely) that he has a KdX type hand where the thinks he now has the best hand. Depending on the bet size it could also be a blocking bet hoping to see the river for cheap.

If he bets small I probably raise/fold, its a lot cheaper to find out where you are now than on the river. If he makes a smallish bet and I get the feeling that I am beat I might just call and hope to fill up on the river.

[Supern00b]

given the bet size, i think it's a raise on the turn, because you're essentially polarizing your range with a hand that still has equity going to the river if he were to call.

The bet sizing looks like a blocker bet, there's a huge range of hands that you're ahead of here

[GreenDragon]

for me it's the same question if you have
KsQs
and flop is
KcTs8s

you have good hand
if someone have better, you have draw
(the only difference, in your deal against some of the hand you have 0-2 outs, but it doesn't matter)

so you can call or raise it on flop. and choose action depending on opponent (and don't forget sometimes randomize it)
imo you should saw SD in most cases (if not diamond comes)

[tokeweed]

Readless, I am going broke and playing this as aggro as possible on that flop and that turn (prolly shoving the turn after raising his flop donk)

[ForeverLearning]

Villain can't 4bet us on the flop. Raise the flop and don't fold!

[bobbythebobcat]

I think villain probably doesn't have a set, because he could have 3bet JJ and maby 99 pre and he would mostly prefer c-calling or c-r on the flop instead of donkbetting. So it's like he has a flush or he has a weak drawing type of hand most of the time. AdQd (could ve 3bet pre), AdTd, KdQd, KdTd and QdTd are only 5 combo's that also could have been check-called or check-raised with on the flop, so I think he holds a drawing type of hand like Ax with one diamond almost always.

Even if he has a flush, you got the implied odds to call the turn and if he has a set the monotone flop will dampen the action enough for you not be afraid of being dealt a cooler.

So, call turn en only call river when you hit your full house.

[Rems]

Either raise flop w the intention of gettin it in if he donks alot in general or flat and flat turn and river shove if u hit ur fh. Raising turn is overrepping ur hand.

[RGyoho]

Completely readless, it's hard to go very wrong here. But some miss assumptions I saw in this thread, that he probably doesn't have 99 or JJ for sets here, which is wrong.

No history no reads, you should never expect a guy in the SB 3betting an UTG openraise for value with 99-JJ.

1. Calling kinda sux, alot of bad cards that can peel off, we do have possition tho which counts for something in this spot, and we shouldnt be too worried about being multibarrel bluffed here.
2. Raising we are not thrilled when we get shipped on, but still should sigh and call.
3. Folding obviously is out of the question.

I think calling and raising are both fine, but if you expect him to do this with OESD type hands like you say, we can definately happily raise/stack off for profit.