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Old 11-01-2009, 12:19 AM   #1
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Bet turn for value but shoved on. hmmm.

Villan is ballcup hes playing like 200 tables - plays 19/16. 3bet pre is part of my bluff range, he has a fairly high fold to 3b %, so the 3b on its own is profitable, some reverse implied odds with the ace when we flop it but its ok, NFD potential etc.

Villan called preflop fairly fast. Villan paused before his flop call and tanked before his shove.

Flop i make a cbet on the dry, expecting to get some folds from better ace high and peeled by most pocket pairs and queens. Turn is obviously a good card since unless he has AQ or slowplayed set i am good here. Also its a card im gonna bet as a bluff. I bet smallish setting up for a river shove. Villan tanks and shoves on me... I was expecting to get called very often and rarely shoved on.

Thoughts?

Poker Stars $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

UTG: $224.70
CO: $203.00
BTN: $200.00
Hero (SB): $202.30
BB: $254.25

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is SB with A 9
1 fold, CO raises to $7, 1 fold, Hero raises to $26, 1 fold, CO calls $19

Flop: ($54.00) Q 4 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $28, CO calls $28

Turn: ($110.00) A (2 players)
Hero bets $36, CO raises to $144
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Old 11-01-2009, 12:56 AM   #2
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Re: Bet turn for value but shoved on. hmmm.

he shouldn't be shoving here with better hands unless he is leveling u, i think all his made hands call again to keep ur bluffing range in. So i call.

and i think turn can be a little bit bigger imo, 45ish
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Old 11-01-2009, 01:06 AM   #3
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Re: Bet turn for value but shoved on. hmmm.

I'd check turn and re eval river
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Old 11-01-2009, 01:09 AM   #4
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Re: Bet turn for value but shoved on. hmmm.

if he folds to 3bets a lot he really doesn't have many gutters/suited diamond hands to be jamming the turn with
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Old 11-01-2009, 01:26 AM   #5
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Re: Bet turn for value but shoved on. hmmm.

I think you can call, there is no need to raise with his value hands as he can get it in easily on the river. Plus if hes decent and sees you as decent he knows you will be firing this turn with most of your range.
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Old 11-01-2009, 01:31 AM   #6
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Re: Bet turn for value but shoved on. hmmm.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemay002 View Post
I'd check turn and re eval river
i cant do that if i want any form of balance in my game. You have to bet this turn card as a bluff almost always.
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Old 11-01-2009, 01:32 AM   #7
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Re: Bet turn for value but shoved on. hmmm.

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Originally Posted by blah-blah-blah View Post
if he folds to 3bets a lot he really doesn't have many gutters/suited diamond hands to be jamming the turn with
yeah i have no idea what his actual range is on this turn for shoving
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Old 11-01-2009, 01:53 AM   #8
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Re: Bet turn for value but shoved on. hmmm.

i mean everyone assuming that this guy plays remotely good and will not shove the turn w/ a good hand are way off. he's way more likely to just play bad and shove w/ AQ than he is to have floated the flop w/ backdoors to jam a turned draw.
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Old 11-01-2009, 01:00 AM   #9
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Re: Bet turn for value but shoved on. hmmm.

how is ur perceived image?
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Old 11-01-2009, 01:14 AM   #10
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Re: Bet turn for value but shoved on. hmmm.

vs this opponent i dont think you're ever good here. i just cant see him peeling this flop and then deciding to turn his hand into a bluff on the best card in the deck for your range.
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Old 11-01-2009, 01:28 AM   #11
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Re: Bet turn for value but shoved on. hmmm.

Quote:
Originally Posted by blah-blah-blah View Post
i mean everyone assuming that this guy plays remotely good and will not shove the turn w/ a good hand are way off. he's way more likely to just play bad and shove w/ AQ than he is to have floated the flop w/ backdoors to jam a turned draw.
This.

The guy is well on his way to completing one of the most ridiculous prop bets ever...

Only reason why he wouldn't be shoving better on this turn is if he's prone to spazz out... i.e. your 1/3 pot bet size made him bluff shove TT rather than just folding it.
Maybe this is enough of a reason to call?... But he'd have to be doing it quite often for the call to be good imo.

The fact that he didnt shove is a little weird also... looks like he still has $5 in his stack left over.
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Old 11-01-2009, 02:29 AM   #12
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Re: Bet turn for value but shoved on. hmmm.

He's a 200-tabling 19/16 as you said.. I think this is a sloppily played AQ way more that some random bluff that you have beat. I fold.

I like your line if you bet/folded turn, though I'd bet more on the turn. I'd rather have like 2/3 than a full pot-sized bet left on the river or w/e as that might make him talk himself into thinking he has "odds" with KQ or underpair etc. Thoughts on this?
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Old 11-01-2009, 03:48 AM   #13
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Re: Bet turn for value but shoved on. hmmm.

Quote:
The guy is well on his way to completing one of the most ridiculous prop bets ever...
??
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Old 11-01-2009, 03:50 AM   #14
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Re: Bet turn for value but shoved on. hmmm.

supernova elite in like 4 months or something
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Old 11-01-2009, 03:54 AM   #15
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Re: Bet turn for value but shoved on. hmmm.

Quote:
Originally Posted by squizzel View Post
Villan is ballcup hes playing like 200 tables - plays 19/16.
ez fold
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